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[fireplace22] 28/11/2018 09:15

The price of acceptance is that in the next election stay at home Tory voters and the rise of UKIP will inevitably mean a Corbyn Govt or at least a Corbyn/Sturgeon coalition. I'd prefer to back no deal than accept that.

[taurusthebear] 28/11/2018 09:07

Project Fear mark 2 is well underway now.

Pity May ignores the people, and her own party, by acting unilaterally on matters such as non-disclosure of legal advice received prior to her agreement with the EU (no doubt because it contains warnings about forever being locked in the EU's clutches). Another reviled, soon to be ex-, leader, just like Tusk and Juncker.

All that's left now is to see how many cowardly, hypocritical MPs vote for May's deal despite a majority supposedly being against it...

[brucie5] 27/11/2018 17:30

Good link zho. Funny how the brexiteers loathe all referencing of material sourced through the Guardian, and increasingly, the BBC. Never mind if the source itself is a constitutional lawyer.

I see trouble ahead.

[pendragon2] 27/11/2018 14:04

zho thanks - bogdanov covers a lot of ground, but he missed the EU's potential position, either agree with agreement without amendment; no Brexit at all and eat humble pie; or out at the end of march with no agreement.

I personally think the EU politicos would be delighted to see the UK stew in their own juices - certainly not a mood to 'rescue' May in any way at all. A lot of frustration with the UK for weakening the EU over the last couple of years. The kind of issue I could foresee with abandoning Brexit would be, for example, European Parliament elections are set for next spring without the UK - Brussels will not want to accept the notion of UK MEP's claiming seats after all. The same would go for all kinds of working parties, committees and project management in Europe and all over the world.

I am wondering how many would really want 'no Brexit at all', which is what I suspect the May's negotiating team have actually been aiming for by agreeing a preposterous set of terms over the Irish border as a kind of poisoned chalice.

[zho] 27/11/2018 12:00

Pendragon

This may help - it was written by a constitutional lawyer:

[pendragon2] 27/11/2018 11:43

fishing for opinions, as I am outside the UK:

May seems to imagine it will be possible to stay in the EU if her 'agreement' fails in parliament (as seems likely), by deferring or withdrawing the Article50 letter.

I noticed it took months to get the last referendum legislation through Parliament and then came several months campaigning, so a repeat could only happen after the 'leave by' date at the end of March, or some time later following a general election. As I see it, the reality of a second referendum would be about rejoining the EU, not dropping Brexit.

Would there be significant support for staying in, assuming the EU would welcome the move as Donald Tusk keeps suggesting?

btw. Yes Mount, I escaped DryS long before it sank. I never got into Clarksons however. I've lost my appetite for shipping stocks.

[grannyboy] 27/11/2018 08:41

It wouldn't have been so tedious if May had got on with the task of LEAVING instead of kowtowing and crawling to the beck and call of the gangsters in brussels...she has dragged it on and on, just to instill a sense of inevitability and acceptance of any old weak negotiated capitulation deal ...

[pendragon2] 27/11/2018 08:02

brexit - tedious as it may seem, there is one question no-one seems to have asked in the media debates about the proposed deal and it is this:

Why is the 'Irish Backstop' so necessary, nay essential, for goods, yet not for people?

Perhaps you might ask your MP's to ask for an explanation.

[alphorn] 26/11/2018 17:42

MT - no doubt you followed the Swiss referendum yesterday. The subject of putting Swiss laws above international laws was very soundly defeated. At least there is some sense in parts of the globe.

[alphorn] 26/11/2018 17:39

MT - there is always intrigue at the highest levels. It just means that Messrs David and BOJO were not up to that level. Please for one moment forget the politics - the whole process from the UK side was run by a bunch of amateurs who were out of their depth. Very sad - but predictable.

[freddie ferret] 26/11/2018 17:29

Everything is running in UKIPs favor at the moment, Brexit balls up or no Brexit, a nice long delay to get people angry.
Polls are up to now around 7-8% from a low of buzzer all, around 1%.
Given time we might see a ukip government voted in at the next general election.

The economy generally worldwide is also breaking bad.

[mount teide] 26/11/2018 14:15

Alp - May was running a secret Cabinet within a Cabinet for nearly 2 years - finally revealing all to the complete surprise of Davis and her official cabinet at the Chequers stitch-up.

[captainfatcat] 26/11/2018 13:42

lets get on with a hard Brexit. No pain, no gain.

[alphorn] 26/11/2018 11:51

MT - you are therefore saying that for almost 2 years Boris and Davis had no impact on the cabinet. At least we agree on something - they are weak and poor achievers. A waste of space in fact.

Summed up in a couple of sentences.

[mount teide] 26/11/2018 11:49

'Looks like Norway deal is being touted as back up option.'

Impossible according to the unelected EU Bureaucrats who openly gloat that its May's Vassal State Capitulation or No Deal!

But of course as Trump demonstrated, when you're dealing with the venal charlatan Jean Claude "If we have to lie, we lie" Juncker, who rose like a phoenix from the ashes into the unelected President of the European Commission after being removed from office by the Luxembourg electorate as a result of a huge wire tapping scandal, nothing is ever as it seems.


Desperate referendum losers now say that May’s deal exposes Brexit as a fantasy, that leaving was impossible all along. This is of course complete nonsense.

May's and her inner 'cabinet' - a small group of Europhile Civil Servants - has not really been trying to leave the EU at all, but to stay in it. The clear demand of the Leave side during the referendum was that we should negotiate a free-trade treaty with the EU. This was on the table at the start of the negotiations. But May refused to go for that.

It is very tempting for Remainers to gloat and say the Brexiteers have been living in a fantasy land because what they asked for was impossible. But what the referendum winners asked for has not even been attempted.

The idea that it is not possible to leave the EU seems to be the most dangerous affront to democracy. May and Whitehall and Treasury cohorts are saying - through their BRINO MINUS CAPITULATION - not only that it was wrong for the public to vote to leave, but also that it cannot be done and therefore the democratic vote was meaningless.

May is banking on a lot of people saying that they are fed up with Brexit now and will think ‘at least it is all over, there’s some sort of settlement, so let’s see how it goes’.

But, in the extremely unlikely event her Capitulation BRINO deal get through parliament, if the EU starts to make demands( and they already have: fishing waters, Gibraltar, Free Movement and benefits from day one), that the public finds unacceptable, they will be seen as totally illegitimate impositions.

It will then likely lead to a more radical Leave movement with huge electorate support that says we have been cheated, that what we voted for was not given to us and look at all the damage that has been done by a disingenuous PM that scandalously promoted her Capitulation deal as 'leaving the EU' when in fact it was remain in all but name with a £39bn and counting price tag and vassal state status.

[jailbird] 26/11/2018 06:29

Looks like Norway deal is being touted as back up option.But Norway are opposing UK joining it and you need all members to agreeThe four current members of EFTA are Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein, Iceland.

[brucie5] 25/11/2018 20:17

Canada deal doesn't include services, which make up the majority of the UK economy. And then you have question of Irish border, which really is the sticking point. Not what I say - what remains the case, if you want a deal. The other things is, the deal that is now being presented is take it or leave it. The fact that it pleases hardly anybody does not get us any further to a deal that will a. get agreement with the other 27 or b, please the majority in our own Parliament. I wish brexiteers could understand this, and hard brexiteers in particular. Short of another referendum, which cedes the struggle finally,explicitly and unequivocally to one particular sort of Brexit or Remain, no side can currently get exactly what it wants.

[jailbird] 25/11/2018 17:09

The Canada+++ deal is better this one on offer.
The ERG support it and have the apparently have a solution to NI border issue too.

Donald Tusk also put it on the table in October

Why is that not being considered or has been discounted by the PM?

Have to agree on something otherwise WTO rules

[brucie5] 25/11/2018 16:25

Thing is, the form of democracy we have is parliamentary, not rudimentary. So the question remains: what's your plan?

Not being funny; I'd genuinely like to hear it.

[taurusthebear] 25/11/2018 15:36

Errr, sorry Tony, the vote was in 2016. It's called "democracy". Maybe you should've had a refo, AS YOU PROMISED, when you were PM. You cannot just pick and choose to suit your mood. Lol

[brucie5] 25/11/2018 13:29

You got a better answer, Mr. Roper? Let's hear it, along with your plan for getting it through Parliament.

[mr roper] 25/11/2018 12:01

Yes, keep voting until I get the right answer

[alphorn] 25/11/2018 11:57

I don't like Tony Blair but have to say that he summed up much very clearly.

[mr roper] 25/11/2018 11:53

Tony Blair today on the second vote, or hundred and second if he still got the wrong answer.

“Both the Remain campaign, and the Leave champai… campaign should jointly agree that this vote is final, doesn’t matter how marginal it is, it’s final. Once this is resolved then that’s it for a generation.”