Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[jtcod] 05/4/2018 06:59

Yes Matt it seems the US is still chugging along ok. Certainly in Virginia and D.C. private property sales are still moving fast. Much faster than the uk. Inflection point is a good description. I think with the Trumps protectionist measures in full flow, the US is due a big dollop of inflation. The big question for me is: Will the Fed continue to unwind QE as interest rate increases take their toll? I am not convinced they will.

[jtcod] 04/4/2018 18:36

Thanks for posting that Mattjos. It really does paint a picture.

[chestnuts] 04/4/2018 18:26

Matjos

The USA continued priceing gold in dollars till Feb 1973 and the last fixed price was $42.6

[freddie ferret] 04/4/2018 17:26

JT.
Well done on the 66666.

[jtcod] 04/4/2018 16:40

Comment from Pilitico Pro todaySoybean association conveys 'extreme frustration' with Trump's trade tactics"The escalation in U.S.-China trade tension sent futures for the oilseed tumbling by nearly 40 cents a bushel, meaning U.S. growers lost $1.72 billion in value for their crop this morning alone."

[jtcod] 04/4/2018 09:20

This ball is really starting to roll now. Europe and South America will probably do quite well out of this.

China’s ministry of commerce
“We have the confidence and ability to respond to any US trade protectionist measures,” a spokesperson said. “As the Chinese saying goes, it is only polite to reciprocate.”


US plans tariffs on $50bn in Chinese imports to protest alleged tech theft

[jtcod] 03/4/2018 12:09

Fair point. I think it's the first for the S&P since 2016

[chestnuts] 03/4/2018 12:07

JTC


To be fair the Dow as whipsawed through the 200 day moving average a few times

[jtcod] 03/4/2018 11:49

Chestnuts did you see the S&P and Dow fell through the 200 day moving average last night?

[jtcod] 03/4/2018 11:45

I never really checked out the Madoff scandal but looking at this interview with the guy who warned the SEC 5 times over 7 years that it was a fraud, incredibly Madoffs fund didn't even make any trades going back as far as 1993 and possibly before. How on earth do you maintain an investment fund scam of that size for 20yrs without even being a player? That's crazy! No wonder all the big firms on Wall Street avoided investing in his fund. They knew he had no presence in the market. :-(hTTps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=s68FR1MXT8Q

[jtcod] 03/4/2018 10:16

I have no idea whether they will try to unwind their position. I don't believe I commented on that.

[jtcod] 03/4/2018 10:07

I guess people don't ever really learn until everything is lost chestnuts. QE opened a box that they are finding now cannot be closed without facing up to what they were trying to avoid in the first place. They said it could be reversed when everything was ok again but it just doesn't work that way. It's a form of cheating and there is always a price to pay.

[spittingbarrel] 03/4/2018 10:06

JTCod - Why would the SNB want to unwind their position? Surely just keep on collecting those dividends/interest payments.

[chestnuts] 03/4/2018 08:50

JTC

How do these things happen how do countries or people make such a mess of things, it goes back to trying to save a broken system, i think they will reboot the system like Bretton Woods 1944.5

[jtcod] 03/4/2018 04:58

It’s remarkable really that if I was to search YouTube for comments on the Fed balance sheet there are hundreds of doomster comments predicting the end for the Federal Reserve. Since the financial crises of 2008 the Fed has expanded its balance sheet from $800bn to $4.5 trillion. Well, imagine it was now $22.5 trillion. That’s the magnitude of madness that another of the worlds central banks has taken QE to because while the Fed was bloating it’s balance sheet to 25% of US GDP another central bank has gone to 125% of GDP and no, it’s not the Bank of Japan.
Last year I posted that the Swiss National Bank had been printing CHF, selling them on the currency markets to depress the value of the home currency and then using that converted currency to buy equities and foreign treasuries in those countries. Well that works great when values are going up but what happens when the tide turns?
The Swiss National Bank has been described as the worlds biggest hedge fund.
I just can’t work out how it could be best played. Go long CHF or short Swiss government bonds perhaps? Which are currently paying zero% yield

[jtcod] 03/4/2018 03:43

US Treasury plans talks on more debt transparencyhTTps://www.ft.com/content/357bc6dc-337a-11e8-b5bf-23cb17fd1498.......and here's the real reason?"....the treasury is increasing debt issuance to cope with a growing deficit. At recent debt sales, primary dealers have been left holding a higher than average amount of paper as other investors back away from the market."

[jtcod] 03/4/2018 03:17

AI 'poses less risk to jobs than feared' says OECDhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-43618620

[jtcod] 02/4/2018 07:11

China to retaliate with tariffs on 128 U.S. products beginning MondayBy Megan Cassella 04/01/2018 08:49 PM EDTChina is moving forward with its plan to counter President Donald Trump's new tariffs on steel and aluminum, levying duties that will take effect Monday on more than $3 billion in U.S. exports to the country.In a statement Sunday, the Chinese government said it would impose the retaliatory tariffs on 128 products, according to an informal translation.China will impose a 15 percent tariff increase on goods including American fruit and nuts and add a 25 percent tariff on pork, recycled aluminum and other goods, the government said.The move to impose the duties comes just over a week after the Chinese Commerce ministry had announced it was considering tariffs on the goods. Just over a week later, those tariffs are taking effect.The move is expected to lead to escalating tensions between the two large trading nations, leading many to worry that American farmers will be casualties in a tit-for-tat trade war.The U.S. shipped more than $1 billion of pork products to China last year, making it the No. 3 destination for exports after Japan and Mexico. The U.S. was China's top supplier of apples, cherries, walnuts and almonds.Beijing argued in the statement Sunday that it would be imposing the duties "in order to safeguard China's interests and balance the losses caused by" the steel and aluminum tariffs, which took effect late last month.It will move forward with the retaliatory measures under the World Trade Organization's safeguards agreement, which allows a country, after a period of consultation, to put in place tariffs to compensate for another country's export restrictions.While the Trump administration has said the steel and aluminum tariffs are necessary to protect national security, Beijing rejected that argument in its statement and said they ran afoul of WTO rules.China's responses, meanwhile, are "legitimate measures ... to use the rules of the World Trade Organization and safeguard its interests," the statement said.More tariffs between the two countries are possible in the near future. In March, Trump unveiled another set of tariffs, which specifically target some $60 billion in Chinese exports in response to what the White House has described as policies that force American tech companies to cough up intellectual property in order to access the Chinese market.To view online:https://www.politicopro.com/trade/article/2018/04/china-to-retaliate-with-tariffs-on-128-us-products-beginning-monday-924833

[gersemi] 01/4/2018 14:18

thanks fellas

appreciated

[jtcod] 01/4/2018 12:34

I'm not aware of any such restriction but then again I make very few trades. Best clarify with your broker I think.

[mount teide] 01/4/2018 12:32

gersemi - Equity SIPP's ISA's and Trading accounts - you can trade as frequently as you like.

However, Transaction fees, stamp duty and the spread does take its toll on frequent trading, its the primary reason why 95% of short term traders lose money over the longer term.

Likewise, 95% of managed funds fail to beat the index they are largely mirroring - mostly through over-trading for self serving purposes. As Terry Smith of Fundsmith fame suggested - the laws of probability make their Fund performance look completely absurd.

The reality is their direct and indirect fund 'investment' charges, along with massive overtrading of positions to generate revenues for their own in-house brokers; the routine lending out of their clients investment stock for a fee to short the stock; and pre-selection by each other's in-house brokers for upcoming discounted placings in stock held in their funds, enabling shorting and buy back for their own account are just a few of the highly unethical 'strategies' routinely employed by II's to fleece their clients and the wider market - these and many other similar 'strategies' generate huge amounts of cash that goes straight into their own accounts not those of the fund.

When a friend set up a dummy investment portfolio to invest in a contrarian fashion to that which a leading Wall Street Investment bank's analysts were putting out in their Company Notes and Market Forecast's; ie go long when they put out a company sell recommendation or a forecast for a drop in the price of a commodity and, to go short when they put out a company buy recommendation or a forecast for an increase in the price of a commodity - he said he had a success rate of over 70%, while the Investment bank got it right less than 30% of the time.

As he suggested, no one with their level of forecasting success would remain in business long if they were actually investing mostly on the basis of their own recommendations.

The major investment banks mostly talk their own book - when WTI oil was at $120 Goldman Sachs came out with a Note confidently predicting $200 oil - it dropped to $26 - how wrong can you be ? You can bet your life Goldman's own traders cleaned up into the drop before reversing and riding it back up again - in the investment bank world equity investment losses are for the little people.

It was no coincidence that none of the large Wall Street Investment banks ever had a cent of their or their clients money in Madoff's high 'performing' fund.

When Harry Markopolis was asked on camera: "if the Wall Street investment banks knew that Madoff's claimed fund performance was impossible, why did't they alert the regulator" - he smiled and memorably replied, "those living in glass houses never throw stones" - ie; exposing Madoff would be bad for business!

The worlds largest shipbroker Clarkson's have a team of highly talented analysts that produce shipping, port and commodity industry research so good they are able to sell it to shipping companies, other shipbrokers, the ports industry, and Governments worldwide to name a few for high £4figure sums - but, not before first using it for their own investment account to quite legally front run the market, by positioning their businesses, trading and investments to benefit from the subsequent release of this widely respected, very high quality and much in demand research.

The strategy has been so successful, it has helped drive Clarkson's share-price from £0.90 to £32.00 in the last 17 years.

[gersemi] 01/4/2018 10:57

Sorry to be a pain. I do read this thread and find it illuminating. Just one question regarding a Shares ISA

Is there a limit to the number of trades I can perform within a stock and shares ISA?

[jtcod] 01/4/2018 10:09

Should have headed last post "may tie" not "to tie" sorry