Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[spittingbarrel] 14/3/2018 11:44

Mr R - There is a legal reason (which I can't remember but will try to look up) why gilts owned by the BOE can't just be cancelled, but they could easily be rolled over into an irredeemable gilt when they come up for redemption so the end result is the same, just a bit more messy.

[jtcod] 14/3/2018 11:18

It's true that 30% of UK debt has been printed by the BoE to buy out real world gilts. The rest is real and in theory could be bought by printing money but how long would that be allowed to continue before you destroy your currency and economy? The vast majority of liabilities though are represented by the twin pension deficits.

[mr roper] 14/3/2018 10:48

JT, aren't large chunks of the US debt and UK debt owned by the respective central banks though, FED/BOE. I was mulling earlier, what's stopping those entities cancelling the debt, ie. not replacing it when it comes up for maturity. Pretty sure the govts won't be paying any interest on that debt. Isn't it showing a skewed debt/gdp picture?

[jtcod] 14/3/2018 10:24

Non financial corporate debt in America has just gone above the peaks for the dot.com bubble and 2008 financial crises at circa 46% of GDP. It stands at more than $8 trillionHere's an article warning of the risks back in Novemberhttps://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/the-debt-time-bomb-that-keeps-growing-and-now-equals-nearly-half-of-u-s-gdp.htmlThat's a worrying state of affairs given the context of 1999 and 2008. Now here's the thing, last year the IMF warned China that corporate debt was in dangerous territory. Chinese corporate debt is now $28 trillion or 235% of GDP! Chinese corporate debt is forecast to go to 300% by 2022.https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/15/imf-warns-china-debt-slowdown-financial-crisisWhen you consider this alongside UK Debt + Public Sector Pension Deficit + State Pension Deficit of 450% of GDP one could be forgiven for thinking the world has lost all respect for the risks of high debt. :-)

[the stigologist] 14/3/2018 08:12

PYC

This is going worldwide folks

Bio and Pharma companies will want this tech to go to the FDA with it

Nobody gets it yet but Physiomics is going to be a £100m+ maybe even £1000m+ company

Why do you think Dr Jim Millen ex of Glaxo Emerging Technology department decided to join a £0.5m tiddler ?

[the stigologist] 14/3/2018 07:58

PYC Physiomics leading the way in 'a new era of cancer care"

Incredible! No wonder they are endorsed/validated by UK Government / Oxford Uni / Oxford NHS / Merck etc

[the stigologist] 14/3/2018 07:23

PYC Physiomics

BOOOOOM !

Free money !

SUBSTANTIAL NON-DILUTIVE FUNDING

Partnering with UK Government and NHS and Oxford University

MASSIVE VALIDATION

Pharmas and Bios are going to be RUSHING to PARTNER with PYC to COMMERCIALISE this when it's ready... and they augment their core B2B offering as well

PYC has been totally transformed by Dr Jim Millen

The 1p to 32p move in November/December 2017 was simply the first recognition by the Market what was taking place

No wonder the ex-Founder reckons it is worth 100p+

[plain sailing] 13/3/2018 15:53

This promising small-cap stock could be a millionaire maker in 2018
Paul Summers
26/12/2017



The suggestion that a single stock could lead some investors to become millionaires next year may sound fanciful but I think this is quite possible if events work out for small-cap drug discovery and development firm ImmuPharma (LSE: IMM). Let me explain.

Blockbuster potential

Over the last three months, shares in the AIM-listed company have climbed more than 200% in value as anticipation grows over the outcome of a Phase III clinical trial for Lupuzor — its 100%-owned potential treatment for Lupus.

Approximately five million people are believed to suffer from the chronic and potentially life-threatening autoimmune disease that can be a notoriously difficult to treat. In the last 50 years, only one therapy — GlaxoSmithKline‘s Benlysta — has been approved for use, despite its questionable efficacy and serious side-effects. In 2015, the drug achieved sales of over $400m. By 2020, this figure is expected to rise to $1bn.

Positively, data from Lupozor’s Phase IIb trial indicated that ImmuPharma’s treatment — which modulates rather than blocks the immune system — was both effective and safe. Moreover, the effectiveness of Lupuzor increased even after the three-month trial’s conclusion. Investors will be hoping that the 52-week, randomised and double-blinded study currently in progress (involving patients in the US, Europe and Mauritius) yields similar results.

In its most recent update on 21 December, the company revealed that all 200 participants had now received the full 12-month dosage and that the “robust safety record” shown in earlier trials continues to be seen. According to Chairman Tim McCarthy, the company looks forward “with continued confidence” to reporting on top-line results in Q1 of next year.

In the event of a positive outcome, ImmuPharma will then seek to exploit its Fast Track designation and push for approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Once received, the company would then be free to seek out a global licensing deal for taking Lupuzor to market or — perhaps more likely — consider takeover bids by deep-pocketed pharmaceutical giants at a price befitting its blockbuster potential. Given the suggestion that it could be used in the treatment of other diseases, the price could easily be in the billions of pounds. Right now, ImmuPharma’s market cap is a little over £200m.

Despite the encouraging outcomes of previous trials, the possibility of the drug failing to impress still remains. Plenty of highly promising treatments have disappointed at the last hurdle, resulting in significant capital losses for investors. Unless you’re willing to embrace this level of risk, Immupharma shouldn’t even make it on to your watchlist, let alone into your portfolio.

That’s why — as a holder of its stock — only a small proportion of my capital is invested in the company. This money can be lost. I might grumble and curse but — thanks to a degree of diversification — I won’t lose my shirt.

That said, if — and it remains a sizeable ‘if‘ — Lupuzor proves effective (or at least more efficacious than Benlysta), I’m confident that ImmuPharma could generate huge wealth for investors in a very short time period.

[mount teide] 13/3/2018 11:02

Martin Selmayr - a statement with photograph announcing him as the New Director of the EU's Bureaucrats was put up on the EU's website(can't beat German efficiency!) hours BEFORE Juncker set up an early morning EU Commission meeting at which he demanded that the EU Commissioners appoint Selmayr to the vacant DEPUTY Director position.

After bullying the commissioners into accepting Selmayr's 'appointment', Juncker then cheerfully announced the shock resignation of the existing Director, and congratulated Selmayr on his immediate promotion to Director, from Deputy Director - a position he occupied for less than 30 seconds according to one Commissioner present.

The EU is the new Soviet Union all over again - unelected, unaccountable, undemocratic, secretive, corrupt, condescending, evasive, dictatorial, superior, insincere, breathtakingly self important and totally impervious to criticism - self serving arrogance on an industrial scale level !

[kaos3] 13/3/2018 10:24

PS - I was explained this morning that all cars Will change from 12 V to 42 V - thicker wires needed (more copper) but less energy loss due to the heating of the wires

[the stigologist] 12/3/2018 19:10

PYC Physiomics

Today on the same day PYC announced successful completion of their 'Personalised Medicine Cancer Decision Support Tool' project with Government/InnovateUK/Oxford University (and they had applied for next stage funding)

The Government/InnovateUK have announced £300m funding for 'Precision Medicine'

Anyone reckon PYC in line for some SIGNIFICANT NON-DILUTIVE FUNDING soon ?

[mount teide] 12/3/2018 13:26

As predicted Selmayr plans to buy off his EU Commission detractors with personal pay-offs that are astonishing even by the EU's legendary standards for largesse!

A very EU coup: Martin Selmayr’s astonishing power grab - Spectator

How a bureaucrat seized power in nine minutes

Why are the European Commissioners not making more of a fuss? Perhaps because Selmayr is preparing to give them a special present. Retiring commissioners are entitled to a generous ‘transition allowance’ of up to two-thirds of their basic salary for roughly two years, up to about €13,500 a month.

Selmayr now plans to extend this to three, or perhaps even five, years. On top of the extra cash, they’d enjoy a series of benefits in kind: an office in the Commission headquarters (previously a perk to which only former presidents were entitled), a luxury executive company car with driver and two personal assistants. So thanks to Selmayr, a departing European Commissioner might receive double, if not triple, what he or she currently receives. All tax free, let’s not forget.

Selmayr’s manoeuvre would not have been possible without the complicity of Irene Souka, the European Commission’s Director-General of Human Resources. She has been amply rewarded for her efforts: last month, her job was extended beyond compulsory retirement age (as was that of her husband, Dominique Ristori, who is EU Director-General for Energy).

Only one mystery remains: why did Selmayr move when he did? Why not wait? Juncker will be President until October 2019: why would Selmayr not stay as chief of staff (or de facto president) until then? Or why not at least spend six months in the Deputy Secretary-General job? One answer is that Selmayr had to move before anyone could work out what he was up to. France, in particular, had its eye on the Secretary-General job, as two of the four great European institutions (the Parliament and the Diplomatic Service) are managed by Germans. Now, thanks to the Selmayr ascendancy, it’s three out of four. Rather a lot.

But there’s an even bigger reason for him to have moved. Precisely because Juncker will be gone next year, Selmayr needs to act now to line up a replacement — someone just as docile. And he believes he has found just the man in Michel Barnier. It’s thanks to Selmayr’s patronage that Barnier ended up as the Brexit negotiator in the first place. Selmayr’s next mission is to put Barnier top of the list of the European People’s Party (a grouping of centre-right MEPs), which means he’ll be in pole position for the job under the Spitzenkandidat system that Selmayr did so much to set up. Barnier is the ideal candidate because he is (in Selmayr’s eyes), weak, malleable and Macron-compatible.

Selmayr is now accountable to no one. Indeed, he has lost no time further consolidating his power. He has moved his office close to the President’s. I understand he will continue to chair meetings in the President’s office and even plans to put the hitherto independent European legal service under his command. So all he needs now is a new president as docile as Juncker has been and he’ll have achieved his aim: before his 50th birthday, and without ever having stood for elected office Selmayr will become the alpha and omega of the European Commission.


A racket worthy of the Mafia!

[jtcod] 12/3/2018 12:40

Possible Superconductivity development with twin twisted latticeworks of Graphenehttps://www.nature.com/articles/nature26160.epdf?referrer_access_token=-QbGwd46pPuFhKsNZDDWwdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0No4rB9qxo-6T_6kb1b-ZIqzeHo3NW4VbUeUDPD4oqt59XqTt8FNGBb0wK8OC00Q5Fh35Sfy1JUs90U_LH-UvUjW4gbGUEQv-t25o5St7kCUfxg0CG332uJNqXZEHB3OZSyzHzBLTGe4-mv85sPSUtMfOMQsmjPB1hj17i5KPtFn6m1B3SCe9pBYhYWKiQrzGYw15cFUF6yWxbM0uK6hZU_VXE9gO1Ey2sGW0svUvw36g%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.sciencenews.org

[the stigologist] 12/3/2018 08:00

PYC

Market Cap just £3m but on the verge of entering Personalised Medicine market with their Government/Oxford Uni funded/partnered tech



"The results and learnings from the project have potential applications in both the Company's existing business advising R&D based pharmaceutical and biotech companies as well as in the emerging field of personalised cancer treatment. In order to further develop the technology the company is actively seeking additional grants in this space (as originally announced in October 2017).

The Company believes that the field of personalised or stratified cancer treatment, whether in R&D or in clinical practice will continue to gain importance in the short to medium term and that the Company is well positioned to contribute towards its development."

[mount teide] 12/3/2018 00:54

Post Brexit i fully expect the Government to create a significant number of “free ports” within our network of Shipping Ports to drive economic growth and rapidly boost trade links with the rest of the world.

[mr roper] 11/3/2018 20:30

Remarkable how little coverage there has been of Selmayrs ascent to the top job or of the Italian election. Both will have profound implications on the future of the Eu.

[mount teide] 11/3/2018 18:56

Trump and Brexiters will be delighted to hear there is 'uproar' at their favourite self serving, cash gouging institution the EU, over another Junker back room deal stitch up - as Europhile MEP's are set to demand a formal inquiry into German, Martin Selmayr’s surprise appointment as the top Eurocrat at a parliamentary session tomorrow.

Selmayr’'s been Juncker's right hand henchman for years. Last week, Juncker set up an early morning EU Commission meeting at which he demanded that the EU Commissioners appoint Selmayr to the vacant DEPUTY Director position.

They agreed, but very reluctantly since two of the top four EU bureaucrat places were already occupied by Germans.

As soon as he had their agreement, Juncker delivered his coup de gras, by making the shock announcement that the current Director was retiring with immediate effect.

As a consequence, Selmayr went from nothing to the top boss in less than five minutes. Now three of the four top Eurocrat posts are held by Germany.

MEPs(mostly self serving Eastern Europeans full of synthetic indignation in the hope of securing cash hand-outs) who are complaining are expected to be paid off EU style by Juncker at EU taxpayers expense of course.

[mount teide] 11/3/2018 11:14

Any objective comparison of long term investment performance pre and post Nixon and his successors decision to no longer maintain the promise that a dollar was worth 1/35th of an ounce of gold is far from straightforward and probably of very limited value, considering the number of variables involved and the scale of the changes in many.

Our so called global energy crisis is based on the illusion that the price of oil has gone up more than 30 fold, when in fact, it is the dollar whose value has fallen relative to gold, oil, and all other goods and services over the past 50 years.

A period during which the world has suffered from 12 financial crises, beginning with the oil shock of 1973 and culminating in the financial crisis of 2008-09 and now the debt crisis in Europe, and the growing deficit crisis in the US.

Conversely, between 1947 and 1967, there was only one currency crisis, involving the British pound, and no major bank failures or Wall Street/Corporate bailouts in the US.

Nearly 50 years of evidence is in. The great experiment of a paper dollar managed by able people has failed and failed miserably to keep virtually any of its monetary and economic promises - I would argue that commodity price inflation from 50 years of a free floating dollar, is a pretty reliable guide as to the future investment performance of commodities v inflation.

Particularly with Copper, since unlike oil its use is expected to continue to surge over the decades ahead as a result of the rapid move to green energy, EV's and the accelerating industrialisation of the large population Nations of Asia and SE Asia, and Africa. As the CEO of Ivanhoe, one of the most successful investors in the mining industry over many decades recently said - in such a future ALL roads lead to Copper.

There are more than 1,350,000 producing oil wells in the world today and just 200 copper mines - of which the 20 largest are currently responsible for more than 50% of global production. These mega mines are mostly decades old and saw their average production grades fall from 1.3% to 0.6% in just the last 5 years, resulting in a rapid escalation in production costs per tonne. A new mine of this size takes at least 10 years from first exploration to first production.

In a rising interest rate environment, green energy and EV future, it is no coincidence that some of the sharpest and most successful industrial metals sector CEO's in the industry (Glencore, Ivanhoe and CAML to name a few) have recently told shareholders they are currently scouring the world looking to purchase more producing or near term producing industrial metal mining assets, with Copper at the very top of their lists.

[jtcod] 11/3/2018 09:43

I think that using just a 24 year stretch to prove a reliable investment outperformance in any commodity really tells us more about the person who compiled the report than the commodity itself MT. We could choose a 24 year window to prove investable standing for a number of commodities to prove the same point. It really doesn't mean anything in commodity world.I don't think I would choose copper for one other reason, because when Equities tank so does copper because it is so linked to luxury goods. If I am 10 years down the line since the last correction and still invested I would rather be in a commodity with a fair record for swimming against the tide in times of trouble because I may wish to offload some to take advantage of the mayhem. I am not talking about Gold or Silver btw. Gold dropped 30% in 2008/9 before people started running to it. Copper 60% before it took off. That is no good for liquidity in a crises. What I would prefer would be a commodity where the biggest players have no choice but to hold because their holding has nothing to do with investment or speculation and the use is less susceptible to economic downturns.

[mount teide] 11/3/2018 08:48

With rising interest rates - looking for an inflation hedge?

Copper has comprehensively outperformed Gold as an inflation hedge over every 5 year time period during the last 25 years.

While Copper's strong correlation to economic consumption trends is well known, its power to shield a portfolio from inflation is not, and its even more compelling.

As a result of this close connection for every 1% annual increase in consumer prices since 1992, copper's price jumped 18%, more than tripling the 5.2% logged by gold!

Inflation Hedge - Gains for every 1% annual rise in US CPI (1992-2016)

2.4% - S&P 500
5.2% - Gold
5.9% - Precious Metals
12.2%- Industrial Metals
13.6%- Broad Commodities
18.0%- Copper
27.6%- Energy


Why investors go to copper as an inflation hedge

[mount teide] 10/3/2018 18:54

Interesting series of articles on the impact of rising interest rates on the US Economy by Daniel Amerman a former investment banker.


Can A Nation $20 Trillion In Debt Afford Higher Interest Rates & Will This Change Our Retirements?


The Potential $54 Trillion Cost Of The Fed's Planned Interest Rate Increases



Conclusions:
Over the short term of the next 1-3 years, the weighted average life of the national debt does indeed allow the Federal Reserve a great deal of latitude when it comes to raising interest rates. This is because most of the national debt is not initially impacted.

Within 5-10 years, however, maintaining higher interest rates comes at a very high cost as ever more debt rolls over at the new interest rates, and this would have the effect of doubling the interest payments on the debt, while drastically increasing the size of the annual deficits.

When we go to the longer term of 15-20 years and beyond, the Fed's stated plans would create a financial catastrophe scenario, because of the higher compounding rate of 5.25% versus 2.25%.

When we look at future stock prices, or bond prices, or real estate prices - interest rates will be of crucial importance. The timing aspects identified in this analysis have critical implications for the price paths that are likely to be traveled by all the major asset classes in the short and medium term.

Over the longer term, we know that the United States government has an existential interest in keeping rates low for many years to come. Which means that the future is indeed likely to be different from the past when it comes to price and yield performance across all the major investment categories.

When it comes to individuals, there is likely no group that will be more impacted by the increase in the national debt than current and future retirees and retirement investors. This is true when it comes to the value of retirement investments as well as the levels of retirement benefits.

The reliable compounding of investment income is the mathematical core which traditional financial planning for retirement is predicated upon. Yet, as explored in detail in the analysis, the doubling of the national debt created a profound conflict of interest between the government and the interests of retirement savers. The very yields that are traditionally assumed to be available to reliably create wealth for retirement investors - also financially cripple the U.S. government. And the suppression of yields that preserves the financial viability of the government - financially cripples many retirement investment strategies.

When the national debt did rapidly double, even as the largest generation in U.S. history neared retirement - the future changed for the nation. What is realistic to expect for retirement investment income changed.

What is realistic to expect for Social Security and Medicare benefits changed. And those who wish to be realistic with their personal plans can either adjust for the changes - or they may be facing a long series of "surprises" that could change their day to day quality of life for years or even decades to come.

[jtcod] 10/3/2018 17:14

I am being cautious Invisage. Still partially in the market.

[jtcod] 10/3/2018 17:12

I am obviously in a killjoy mood today. :-)Last year the IMF noted that US corporations had increased their debt levels by $7.8 trillion since 2010. They warned that corporate credit fundamentals in the US had started to weaken creating conditions that have historically preceded a credit cycle downturn. They warned that 22% of US corporate assets ($4 trillion) were vulnerable to a sharp rise in servicing costs.It brings it home just how much debt is out there and how much of it is with higher risk borrowers.