Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[jtcod] 01/4/2018 10:00

US to Tie Social Media to VISA Applications hTTp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43601557

[chestnuts] 31/3/2018 11:12

11 percent

The reason why the ratio norm is 16 is because that there 16 times as much silver as gold.

[jtcod] 31/3/2018 11:11

Like you Matt I have an uneasy feeling about the markets right now.If we look at this Schiller PE10 chart again. I think this chart has more meaning than any historic chart of the Dow the S&P500 or gold, silver, individual stocks etc. The reason is it has a root to value and return which was as meaningful in the 1800's as it is today. It reflects the true return on investment and provides an historic barometer. We are still atop the second highest spike in 140 years. If we look at gold chart or oil for instance there is no such root of qualification. Bonds are still at their relative peak over the last 300years. Debt is at the highest peak in history. That's why I think things are going to be stressed about now because interest rates are rising.http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

[11_percent] 31/3/2018 10:57

Ok, will see what I can find.

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The gold/silver ratio is interesting. It has gone from 32 to 80 between 2011 and now for no logical reason. People have commented on the reasons, but I have yet to find a convicting one.

It is thought that precious metal (PM) price suppression started in earnest started around that time ~2011/2012.

JPM, among others, is responsible for the PM price suppression.

[jtcod] 31/3/2018 10:45

Maybe they couldn't agree and JPM did it on their own anyway. The Rainy day fund was Jamie Dimon's idea.

[11_percent] 31/3/2018 10:38

There can be little doubt that JPM are accumulating physical silver, so I go with that as a fact.

These guys are not stupid and must know that nothing about 2008 was fixed, so there is likely to be banking/financial crash in the future (near future??. This time, as Poulson said, no more "bail outs" there must be "bail ins".

Everyone will flee to tangible assets (property, gold, silver, PMs, rare stamps, art, land, etc). If I were JPM, I would go for the "financial" tangible asset, that's gold and silver.

The gold/silver ratio is 80 at the moment. It has been as low as 15 in the past. The mean is, I guess, around 40.

If there is a financial crisis, and gold/silver increase in price, then JPM make cash. If they are in silver, and gold/silver ratio reverts to average, they double their money (compared to gold).

They are stacking physical, which is a good idea. There is no counter party risk.
(The counter party risk is what would have crashed the system in 2008, without the "bail-out".)


JTC, I had never thought about the "silver mountain" as rainy day fund......will have a look.
Initial thought is that all of these banks hate each other, and unlikely to co-operate.......never mind let JPM "hold the kitty".

[mattjos] 31/3/2018 10:12

Thanks JT ... as a rainy day fund, it's not a bad one!One assumes, since they are still buying every month, that they don't yet think they have enough & that they believe a rainy day is certainly coming.Certainly feels to me that such a day is not far off now

[jtcod] 31/3/2018 09:15

Matt here's my take on the JPM silver position fwiw.Back during the 2008 Crises when things were falling apart Henry Paulson called the heads of JP Morgan, Citicorp, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs in to find a way to save Lehman Bros. He effectively told them "this is your mess, you sort it out between yourselves". He told them the treasury would not bail Lehmans out. As we know now these bank heads had no appetite for saving Lehman because they were all up to their necks in subprime also and knew they were next to fall. In the end the government let Lehman go and bailed these banks out but Paulson reportedly told them that next time "you are on your own". During these discussions it was Jamie Dimon who was reported to have suggested they all need a rainy day fund in the future because there will always be a next time. I just wonder if this is that rainy day fund rather than some sort of investment play.As hedges go it's not a bad solution as it not only hedges against the collapse of the banking system but also the collapse of the USD.Just a thought....hTTps://www.jmbullion.com/investing-guide/pricing-payments/who-owns-most-silver-bullion-today/

[mattjos] 30/3/2018 23:29

most unlikely chestnuts ... I believe it is generally accepted that the USA has re-hypothecated its gold reserves many times over & could not return to a gold standard as the action would instantly bankrupt them.

What does interest me is why is JP Morgan continuing to hoard physical silver .. now over 130moz & growing every month? Seemingly they are using their dominance in the market to supress the price via paper contracts, whilst buying the physical metal every month.

Are they doing so on their own book or, on behalf of client(s) ? It's a huge holding & no one seems to know exactly why but, one assumes the owner(s) believe thy will be able to sell for a profit at some stage.

[chestnuts] 30/3/2018 23:08

Do we have a war with China and oil, are the States going to out do China and go back to a gold standard


hxxps://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5404/history?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22gold+dollar%22%5D%7D&r=1

[jtcod] 30/3/2018 22:28

Excellent informative post Mattjos thanks

[mattjos] 30/3/2018 21:09

battery electric v hydrogen electric is like the tortoise and the hare, Betamax v VHS.

I personally believe that Hydrogen electric will be the long term winner. Musk is convinced that battery electric will win and is hugely dismissive of Hydrogen ... he has to be but, he is trying to stand & fight, long term, against Toyota, Hyundai, BMW, Daimler, Honda just now and the list of his protagonists will only grow longer.

Localised electrolysis of water to produce Hydrogen at the point of requirement is making good progress. ITM is really the only UK play on this (am not advocating investing in it. I have not done so yet but, it is worth watching for the newsflow as well as US listed Ballard Power).

Range anxiety will continue to dominate consumers purchase decision on Battery electric & I do not see that recharging technology is making sufficient advances to stem the advance of Hydrogen. The quicker you try to charge a battery, the more heat you generate & the more energy you consume trying to dissipate that heat.
Now that electrolysers are less and less reliant on expensive rare metals, they can be scaled upwards.
The world has an existing hydrocarbon distribution network (petrol stations) & these can all be converted to deliver Hydrogen with the install of underground electrolysers to replace the existing fuel tanks.
Refilling a Hydrogen powered car takes same time as refuelling a petrol/diesel car.

I believe Tesla is, ultimately, driving up a cul de sac with battery electric. his solar business has more merit though as rooftop solar can be used to further distribute Hydrogen generation for residential use. It is already possible to buy Hydrogen powered driveway heaters to keep drives clear of snow and ice and heat garages .. the hydrogen being generated from rooftop solar.

The whole thing is just too early to call just now so the tech is best avoided, imo

[maxk] 30/3/2018 21:00

JT

I have no idea, got the tip off a tech type. It works most of the time, but it's not infallible.

[jtcod] 30/3/2018 20:46

MaxI hadn't realised because when I look at my own links they look normal. How is that possible?

[maxk] 30/3/2018 20:38

JTC

If you alter part of the http address like this hTtp, the link tends to work: one small way of getting round this sites stupid restrictions.

[jtcod] 30/3/2018 20:03

What The Bond Market Is Telling Tesla Shareholdershttps://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2018/03/30/what-the-bond-market-is-telling-tesla-shareholders/#20ca125155bd

[jtcod] 30/3/2018 19:54

Lol "High yield and investment grade corporate bond spreads have widened, and investors have rushed back into Treasurys, driving yields lower." Few days ago they didn't want US treasuries. What we are seeing is a very worried market where people know that the system has many weak links but they don't know where to put their money for safety. Try cash?Tesla Bond Blowout is a Warning for Risk Credithttps://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/28/tesla-bonds-blowout-is-a-warning-for-risk-credit.htmlI suspect we may be in for a more choppy April.

[jtcod] 29/3/2018 14:54

Flattening Yield Curve lowest since financial crashhttps://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/3029381/us-treasury-yield-curve-narrows-to-lowest-level-since-financial-crashWeak Demand for US Treasury Auctionhttps://www.ft.com/content/e6e5189c-32ad-11e8-ac48-10c6fdc22f03

[freddie ferret] 28/3/2018 16:29

OK.
We'll have to watch this space.

[jtcod] 28/3/2018 16:27

No FF sorry I haven't

[freddie ferret] 28/3/2018 16:05

I was talking to a Greek this morning!

[temporarily insane] 28/3/2018 16:03

JTC I have heard that a large amount of oil is sitting under the ground waiting for Tethys management to get it out.

What do you think? 😂