Jkx Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[salpara111] 22/10/2013 11:17

I'm out.
Might revisit when news flow turns positive.

[salpara111] 21/10/2013 11:33

The only wild card in the pack would be if the annoying large shareholders made a bid to take them private, against the odds it happened at EXI.
Having said that it is never a good idea to buy a stock purely on the basis that it might get taken over, buy on fundamentals and if it gets taken out then great!
I have gradually retreated from oil stocks as the sector is pretty much a basket case despite triple digit oil prices. I still hold HOIL and am under water there, ironically if I sold here I would consider putting the money into another oiler!
Always the dream of the big strike!

[hoper2] 21/10/2013 11:20

Even with a depletion rate of 5% on conventional wells - I think we can ignore the R-103 frac well at the moment - I still think JKX should be producing over 13,000 boepd at the moment. For the future we still have improving rates in Russia and hopefully some good news from the Elizavetovskoye wells, so hopefully we can at least maintain those levels. Yes they do have debt, but not an excessive amount and this has covered operational work for at least another year. It isn't as good a buy now than it was before today's news, but like you I think the downside is limited. That said again like you I am wondering whether to sell out - at about break even - because shares in companies that deal in the Ukraine always carry a high risk and when the potentiaL reward is reduced a rethink is needed. To be honest not sure which way to go at the moment.

[salpara111] 21/10/2013 10:27

hoper, I dont think you are factoring in depletion rates to current production.
Typical depletion rates are around 5% for conventional wells, in the USA facked wells typically have a staggering first year depletion rate of around 25%.
I read a statistic recently that really put the industry into perspective.
Shell spends 54% of its multi billion $ capex budget on managing depletion rates to 4-5% ...that is right....over half their capital spend is not on new production but on managing the rate of decline of current production.
I cant imagine that small producers are any different and most of them dont have the huge cash flow necessary to invest like Shell does.
Don't forget that JKX had to raise finance in a very expensive way last year so they cannot realistically look at reinstating the divi until profitability is much improved.
We are now entering the winter period when drilling etc becomes much slower and difficult.
I dont see much downside from here but equally I dont see where the upside is coming from in the near future.
I was waiting to see what the result was from the multifrac on the basis that I assume they would have concentrated on the most promising prospect first and if that is the case then it does not bode well for future fracks.
I am not in a panic to bail but equally I dont see how the share price can get to 80p in the next couple of months never mind my original £1 target.

[hoper2] 21/10/2013 10:13

Disappointing result today, but production keeps going up - the recent appraisal well and the R-103 well will have added to the 12,500 boepd they reported a the half year. By my calculations we should be around the 14,000 boepd mark by now, with around 6,5000 boepd from the Ukraine and the Elizavetovskoye wells still to come on line. Looks well undervalued to me, but once again todays progress report is disappointing.

[wallywoo] 21/10/2013 09:20

Why do you think there will be no news? For a start the Elizavetovskoye new gas station is about to start production, with a 5 well drill program to start to deliver newsflow. There will be drill news every couple of months IMO for at least the next 12 months

The frac story is disappointing, but was always very high risk. JKX is a long way from being a one trick pony. They are generating over $100M of cash each year with a growing production profile with only a £120M Mcap, so dividend news is not far away IMO. Along way from a lost cause

[salpara111] 16/10/2013 09:53

£1.50 would be nice but lets not get ahead of ourselves.
The one thing that is good is that you dont really need to invest ahead of good news flow as the market will not give them a single penny on the share price until they are sure that it is backed by positive drilling.
Even the positive RNS of 2 days ago has produced nothing on the share price
Hopefully the results of the Ukraine multifrac in the next few weeks should get things moving again but as I said....no uplift in the share price until concrete results.
I don't think we will see £1.50 until the divi is reinstated and I am assuming that is at least a year away.

[mpclag] 16/10/2013 06:15

I'm going for £1.50!

[mpclag] 14/10/2013 07:46

the upward climb has commenced-another positive drill result today!

[megordon] 14/10/2013 07:45

Nice bid just to give the share price a head start then refusal and get the real value, lol.

[salpara111] 11/10/2013 13:02

Thar she blows!
I am beginning to wonder if we might see a bid from our Russian friends.
Having said that I am now more inclined to say that I would rather they are left alone as I can see good potential over the next 6-12 months.

[jaka] 10/10/2013 16:24

BNY Mellon has concentrated stock JKX Oil & Gas

Updated: October 10, 2013.

BNY Mellon has concentrated stock JKX Oil & Gas

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (USA) 4.81% of the company focused JKX Oil & Gas plc (United Kingdom), engaged in the Ukrainian oil and gas.
Note that in this time of Eclairs Group Limited (British Virgin Islands), controlled by co-owners Privat Igor Kolomoisky and Gennady Bogolyubov, owns 27,54% JKX, of Glengary Overseas Limited (British Virgin Islands), which is owned by businessman Alexander Zhukov - 11 45%.

In addition, 5.03% of the shares JKX Oil & Gas Fund owns Henderson Global Investors, 6,62% - Interneft Limited, 3,09% - Norges Bank, 5,8% - National Joint Stock Company "Naftogaz of Ukraine", 7.81 % - Aberforth Partners LLP.

[salpara111] 01/10/2013 16:48

Yes, I am expecting some news in a few weeks but the exact timing I suspect will be based on when they can report on the frac.
The share price is pretty bombed out as I guess most historical holders have known nothing but a falling share price so any solid good news should allow for something of a re-rating. I am looking for a return to the £1 level in the next 6 months and don't feel that is unreasonable.

[wallywoo] 01/10/2013 14:12

Last years IMS was on 16/10, Frac finished 5 weeks ago (3-4 for clean up, 4 to 5 for well data to be assessed). So I reckon things should start getting very interesting here in a couple of weeks.

[rikky72] 01/10/2013 13:51

Anyone know when the next IMS/trading statement is due? JKX website needs a bit of updating..

[xorex] 27/9/2013 12:15

Its good to have a "vote of confidence" from Hendersons Global who have just increased their holding to above 5%



TR-1: NOTIFICATION OF MAJOR INTEREST IN SHARESi


1. Identity of the issuer or the underlying issuer
of existing shares to which voting rights are
attached: ii

JKX Oil and Gas Plc

2 Reason for the notification (please tick the appropriate box or boxes):
An acquisition or disposal of voting rights
x
An acquisition or disposal of qualifying financial instruments which may result in the acquisition of shares already issued to which voting rights are attached

An acquisition or disposal of instruments with similar economic effect to qualifying financial instruments

An event changing the breakdown of voting rights

Other (please specify):


3. Full name of person(s) subject to the
notification obligation: iii
Henderson Global Investors
4. Full name of shareholder(s)
(if different from 3.):iv

5. Date of the transaction and date on
which the threshold is crossed or
reached: v
25 September 2013
6. Date on which issuer notified:
26 September 2013
7. Threshold(s) that is/are crossed or
reached: vi, vii
5%



8. Notified details:
A: Voting rights attached to shares viii, ix
Class/type of
shares

if possible using
the ISIN CODE
Situation previous
to the triggering
transaction
Resulting situation after the triggering transaction
Number
of
Shares
Number
of
Voting
Rights
Number
of shares
Number of voting
rights
% of voting rights x
Direct
Direct xi
Indirect xii
Direct
Indirect
GBP0.01
Below 5%
Below 5%


8,639,193

5.03%
GB0004697420

B: Qualifying Financial Instruments
Resulting situation after the triggering transaction
Type of financial
instrument
Expiration
date xiii
Exercise/
Conversion Period xiv
Number of voting
rights that may be
acquired if the
instrument is
exercised/ converted.
% of voting
rights






C: Financial Instruments with similar economic effect to Qualifying Financial Instruments xv, xvi
Resulting situation after the triggering transaction
Type of financial
instrument
Exercise price
Expiration date xvii
Exercise/
Conversion period xviii
Number of voting rights instrument refers to

% of voting rights xix, xx






Nominal
Delta



Total (A+B+C)
Number of voting rights
Percentage of voting rights
8,639,193
5.03%



9. Chain of controlled undertakings through which the voting rights and/or the
financial instruments are effectively held, if applicable: xxi



Proxy Voting:
10. Name of the proxy holder:

11. Number of voting rights proxy holder will cease
to hold:

12. Date on which proxy holder will cease to hold
voting rights:



13. Additional information:

14. Contact name:
Charmaine Tusler
15. Contact telephone number:
020 7818 5611


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

[salpara111] 23/9/2013 11:48

Interesting article in the FT today about small cap oilers between £100-200m market cap being vulnerable to takeover due to the difficulty of obtaining financing for development.......once can but only hope!

[salpara111] 22/9/2013 15:11

I wouldn't argue with your logic but what you need to remember is that there was a very large tax hike put in place a couple of years ago so the company will never be as profitable as it was before that point, having said that I do think that they are one of the cheapest oilers out there at present in terms of market cap Vs production

[hoper2] 21/9/2013 10:57

Even if the R-103 well frac doesn't work out JKX are still producing in excess of 12,500 boepd, which is far higher than they have for a few years now. With all the work going on in the Ukraine and increasing production in Russia surely this will increase next year. They say they are fully funded for this and next years work so no real problems there. If either the R-103 frac or the drilling at the Elizavetovskoye field are sucessful surely the share price will fly - even taking into account it's the Ukraine and Russia - or am I reading this totally wrong?

[brucie5] 16/9/2013 10:31

Does look interesting from a chart perspective, but has disappointed so regularly in the past... Maybe better and safer plays for upside in the sector..

[salpara111] 12/9/2013 12:29

Like many small oilers they have seen their share price decimated by never ending production target misses.
I took my first stake here at 63.
IF and I appreciate that it is an IF they can show a couple of quarters of decent growth in production then I see no reason why they cant retrace to the 100p area.
Hopefully there should be news in the next month about the recent frac and if that goes well we should see some decent upward movement.

[hoper2] 12/9/2013 00:21

Morjarias - I agree it appears to be well under valued. If the R-103 well frac works out, plus production increases in Russia and the possibility of more new gas fields being brough on line in Ukraine soon - this could easily hit the £2 mark. Unfortunately, on the negative side Ukraine and Russia are dodgy places to do business, so anything can happen. I've recently bought 24,000 so fingers crossed.