Jkx Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[2bung] 31/1/2013 11:58

it can go to 0p. Could actually be worthless. It's def 1 to stick down in the competition for -20% in Feb !

[nicky21] 31/1/2013 11:45

how low can this go????


this was over £3 a few years ago.

[flyingbull] 31/1/2013 11:32

Here are the February " >20% Up" and ">20% Down" oil stock competitions. Deadline for entry is later today (Thursday) at midnight.
Best of luck.
fb

[2bung] 30/1/2013 19:12

I lost several tens of thousands here, ended up getting my main account liquidated. My shorts killed, and my long JKX was worse than any short

[bondholder] 30/1/2013 18:24

This is turning into Cadogan Part 2.

[salpara111] 30/1/2013 11:51

For me, what little credibility they had has now gone after announcing during Q4 that production would be 10k and then announcing last week that it was 8k. They are either totally incompetent or deliberately misleading the market, either way I am at a loss to understand why any of the bod still have their jobs.
I will keep an eye on them but there is no way I will invest under the current management.

[professor x] 30/1/2013 11:17

You would hope that be the case Simon. This is now one of my worst share picks in recent years having bought several batches at 92p and 80p and selling out at 69p.

[simon gordon] 30/1/2013 11:13

On the long term chart I've got the next level of support at 43p. You'd think the CEO would now be for the chop.

[hashertu] 29/1/2013 15:07

g8ta. Thanks

J Drama. This is what was stated in the half year report. Do you disagree with this?

"In December 2010 new Ukrainian corporation tax rate legislation was effected which reduced future tax rates; as a result the corporation tax rate in Ukraine for 2012 is 21% (2011: 23.5%), 19% is expected for 2013 and 16% is expected for periods after 31 December 2013.

There has been much speculation in the press recently concerning royalties and corporation tax rates in both Ukraine and Russia which we continue to monitor closely. In Ukraine, changes to the production taxes from 2013 have been approved by parliament and signed by the President. At current production and price levels they do not materially impact the Group's effective production tax rate."

[j drama] 29/1/2013 14:23

Tax regime changed in Ukraine from 1st Jan, will impact JKX profitability.

[deanroberthunt] 29/1/2013 13:39

amazing how some stocks can completely miss a bull market.

[deanroberthunt] 29/1/2013 13:38

Surely we can't see the full rotation, from circa 15p to 400p and back to 15p....unlikely but not impossible.

[g8ta] 29/1/2013 12:33

hashertu - I tried [e-mail] (from another website)last month and received a reply from Nadja Vetter ([e-mail]), so both addresses will work. But Cardew does JKX's PR (and takes the flak), so not JKX direct.

[2bung] 29/1/2013 12:14

go back about 50 posts, and you'll find it, but you are wasting you time, i contacted them, asked them about the shorts incrasing and i got 'there will be an IMS in late March'

[hashertu] 29/1/2013 11:34

Does anyone have an email contact at JKX?
Having looked, the web site "contact us" does not offer an email contact which I find rather strange.

TIA

[sigala] 28/1/2013 18:23

G8ta,

Yes - good post - those were my calculations as well. The drop in production in Ukraine is pretty grim - and as you rightly point out there is a huge difference in the price they get in Ukraine as opposed to Russia.

My guess is that the problems with the Russian gas plant has drained the co of most if not all of its funds - there has been very little left to invest in the Ukraine to replace production there. And from the RNS it looks like we shouldn't expect a production increase there until at least H2 if it even happens.

As you say, if Russia is running at 15mmcfd then they are still a long way from getting it up to full production. Are there more problems there? Does Russia still require significant Capex even now? If it does - then it might continue to starve their Ukrainian operations of much needed investment.

It was an update - and a pretty grim one at that.

I thought these were cheap enough in the 70's where I have been buying - but now I'm not so sure. Glad I only hold a small number of these - so not too painful.

This could tank further - where might the bottom be now? At some point it must have some value.....the question is where?

The Russian asset has an estimated 25 year production life - so presumably we should eventually get our money back if we invest at these levels.

As long as they don't run out of cash in the short term.

I feel sorry for all LTH's here - this has been one savage share to have held over the last two years.

Sigala

[deanroberthunt] 28/1/2013 17:26

hmm, this could halve again and still not be cheap

[simon gordon] 28/1/2013 14:08

16/10/12:

"We anticipate average daily production in the fourth quarter to reach 10,000 boepd"

-

25/1/13:

"The rate of production for Q4 averaged more than 8,000 boepd"

=====

g8ta,

Thanks for that summary!

Pole and barge!

[2bung] 28/1/2013 13:51

It;s going back to below 10p. This is with the markets at all time highs. We could have hardly bought a worse share. A probably a great short at these levels.

[g8ta] 28/1/2013 13:33

I don't think the bonds are the problem. A bond is probably the best way to raise capital for JKX and an 8% coupon seems reasonable, considering. Making them convertible and unsubordinated maybe overly generous, but I suppose a good sweetener. I don't know if the anti dilution provisions are for the bond holder or ordinary holders, so there may be dilution in the future. Anyway, they've raised some capital.

The 8000 boepd Q4 is the disappointing bit. Having said there will be no update, the RNS on the 25th is pretty much just that. As Salpara111 has pointed out, the last IMS stated (twice) that production was anticipated to be around 10K boepd. And then the split 2:1 Ukraine/Russia. To me, it implies that output in Ukraine is now down to around 5333 boepd (from 6753 at interims and 6840 for Q3) and around 2667 boepd for Russia, which is 15mmcfd (40mmcfd being plant max.) Prices for gas are around $11/mcf ($390/cm) for Ukraine and $2-58/ mcf ($90/cm) for Russia. In short, a big drop in revenue.

If no further work has been done on the Ukraine wells, then possibly output may fall to under 5000boepd for Q1. There's the frac in the spring, but what is the expected output of this? Will it work? Work is to be done on the Elizavetovskoye field, but JKX are only entitled to 33.3% from this field.

60% effective Ukraine tax, no divi, dodgy Ukraine govt, etc. ..... yuk. Needless to say, pessimistic now.

[2bung] 28/1/2013 13:03

At 8p, this share is expensive.