Jkx Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[deanroberthunt] 23/2/2013 15:57

Well the drill bit should be doing it's stuff shortly....end Feb I think they planned for it to arrive at the field.

[cammy3] 23/2/2013 15:49

Conversion price much higher. Once the shares reach the conversion price which I think is 76p then the holders will convert this eliminating the 8% finance charge. I personally think this is the plan and I think the price will be way over £1 when they do convert. I detect positive newsflow from here on in.

[deanroberthunt] 23/2/2013 15:30

or is it just a case they couldn't have got a placing away.

[deanroberthunt] 23/2/2013 15:26

Can someone expalin if/how Bonds as a method of finance are better than a placing?
my view is that the stock isn't diluted? anything else ?

[cammy3] 23/2/2013 15:23

This will get taken out. Bonds in place now so finance there to ramp up.

[deanroberthunt] 23/2/2013 15:21

I'm surprised that with a NAV approaching £2 and a per of 2.8 that someone hasn't tried to buy this out, hostile or not.

[targatarga] 23/2/2013 14:50

problem with us investors is that we end up compulsive gamblers..... imho

[2bung] 23/2/2013 14:46

Yes, I'm not short, but I will short it if goes high e.g 65p. This is rubbish share, but as you say it's only my opinion, and I have lost a lot on the long side. Should get some back shorting it.

[wallywoo] 23/2/2013 13:13

2Bung, I know you are sore at loosing money here, I don't think you are short, and the reason you post lots of de ramp messages is because of your loss. With the news flow coming and the present valuation, I would think that JKX is a very dangerous short. Your posts may induce someone to actually short this and loose them money.

Sure the trend is down but this is a quality share with over 75% of institutions holding and adding, and the trend with turn IMO.

[mgbroad] 21/2/2013 16:23

Up on a down day how strange?

[2bung] 20/2/2013 16:55

it's a good short when there's any spike

[pejx] 20/2/2013 16:45

Something funny going on here: At close of market someone bought 211k shares at just over 62p. Ideas?

[2bung] 20/2/2013 15:26

a bit like RPO, credibility is in tatters

[g8ta] 19/2/2013 11:22

Short interest down to 7-8m.

[wallywoo] 19/2/2013 08:42

looking interesting here. level 2 all over the place

[g8ta] 14/2/2013 23:36

I see short interest is down to 10m or so. I've bought in again at the beginning of the week, but expecting only modest gains now. The flood of news does seem a bit desperate, but at least it is positive.

They must have known about the Elizavetovskoye reserves for sometime now as they were talking about a stand alone facility last year. I take it that it will be a modest facility and not on the scale of the Russian plant, otherwise it could be another couple of years and another big drain on capital. Delivery on time has not been a strong point recently. Anyway, it's a decent upgrade and flow from well M-53 still seems pretty good.

The Rudenkovskoye frac sounds a logistic nightmare, but looks like they're finally ready to go. A lot riding on this one, so i hope it delivers.

As already stated, IIs still in with one increasing their holding slightly and enough funds from the bond issue to keep them going.

Gazprom have sent a gas bill to Ukraine for $7b which they are not paying, as yet. Ukraine has not used the amount of gas they are contracted for, but the deal is take-or-pay. So no love lost between Ukraine and Russia. From this then, there will be no cheap gas deal yet. The price of Russian gas is linked to the oil price. As the oil price has risen recently, then it can be assumed that gas prices have also risen.

So, sweeping that 20% (approx) drop in Ukraine output in Q4 under the carpet, and ignoring Ukraine is as dodgy as they come, things may be getting rosier.

[wallywoo] 14/2/2013 15:41

Appears on todays free share tip:

Buy JKX Oil & Gas says our newest tipster Doc Holliday
Buy: 62.25p Target 80p

JKX Oil & Gas is a FTSE 250 listed Production and Exploration company with principle assets in Ukraine, Russia and Central Europe. Its portfolio now extends to 14 assets with activities spanning the full-cycle E&P value chain from exploration, appraisal and development through to production.

The company has a share price of 62.25p with a market cap. of around £107m but we have to look closely at the story here and the reason for its recent share price decline. JKX Oil & Gas shares seem to have been struggling to tread water between 69p-78p for a number of weeks.

After technical setbacks in Russia and failure to meet forecast and expectation with production contracting 11.8% overall from Oct 2011 - Oct 2012 the shares slipped from 180p in the early part of February 2012 down to a 55p low in February 2013.

The value here is broadly based around technicals and fundamental perspective's via the usual layman format I convey. '' As I flick through the Maverick Journal of 84' we look at the assets JKX holds:"

Shares in issue 171.67mill

Net Tangible Asset Value 181.1p

Net Asset Value 189.92p

Price Earnings around 2.8

Price to Tangible Book 0.37 (One of, if not, the lowest on FTSE)

Bloomberg Median Estimate Target Price 137.50p (Upside +110%)



Cash at the last accounts release was £6.5m but a with recent fund raising (£25m via bonds priced @ 87.425p) it is now considerably more.

Revenues from the last full year £150m with profit before tax circa £50m

Fore casted £135 million revenue to end 2012 with Pre Tax profit £38.7m

At interim stage Revenues £65m with pre tax loss £400k

The slack start to 2013 should see a taut move with the company announcing successful placing of convertible bonds at 87p raising $40m.

Last director Buy: Cynthia Dublin 40,000 at 80p Oct.2012

We also have the company announcing an Elizavetovskoye reserve upgrade,Rudenkovskoye Multi-Stage Frac Update where CEO Paul Davis said '' This is one of the most important projects in the JKX portfolio and has the potential to kick-off the full-scale development of our largest licence in Ukraine''. Also the update of the upgrade equipment in transit to PPC demonstrates further potential increase in product streams from Novo-Nikolaevskoye plant.

For the more rough backed riders of the stock market I'll put it this way, the company has assets valued at much more than the current share price coupled with a decent cash position and a recovering production and revenue stream which is becoming buoyant once again.

From a TA point of view the shares fell to 55p and were well oversold, Currently we have a company caught in a negative vacuum based around activities that are being remedied and for this reason i suggest a position at the current level will reward the investors is as stated.

Chief Executive, Dr Paul Davies, called operating results for the first half of the year 'solid' with strong gas and LPG realisations in Ukraine offsetting the shortfall in Russian production and associated revenues. "We anticipate the modest decline in production levels in Ukraine through year-end being more than offset by a rising contribution to group production from Russia,"

I see some resistance at low 70's with a tidy leg back up to the relative price of 80p consoling shareholders and reigniting investor confidence during the first half of 2013. The time to buy, at 62.25p, is today!

For more thoughts from small cap investor Doc Holliday you can follow him on twitter @DDS_Doc_Holiday

[salpara111] 13/2/2013 17:22

offer never got close to my 62 limit so I am still out.
The RNS today is frankly ridiculous, it is just a minor operational update which is totally unnecessary.
The bottom line is that they have gradually come to the realisation that they cannot even maintain production levels with current fields so they are planning on adopting the George W Bush school of management "Drill baby Drill" hence the fundraising.
I still find it very difficult to put a value on any of the oil stocks unless they have a meaningful yield.
I have a really big tranche of HOIL and everything suggests that the share price should be well over 300p but it is stuck in a trading range from 220 to 190 so what do I know!

[steve273] 13/2/2013 16:30

First people complain about no information and then when there is you complain about that too. lol

[2bung] 13/2/2013 15:55

an another rns, i'd be very careful here, but gl to all

[mitch101] 12/2/2013 22:30

Did it Sal- at the time of your post the price was 64.25?????

[salpara111] 12/2/2013 13:26

It does seem faintly ridiculous that having been quieter than a church mouse for months we now get an RNS a day!
It would appear that eventually the management were concerned by the never ending decline in the sp!
I have just freed up a big chunk of cash from a very successful investment and am sorely tempted to take a stake here.
They clearly have all the cash they need for the forseeable future the main question is can they really get to grips with the operational side of the business?
I think I will set a limit order for 62 and see if it gets executed in the next few days.

[wallywoo] 12/2/2013 11:08

Sorry to hear that 2Bung, its a cruel master the stock market. I was here along time ago, bgt first at 20p and sold up around 130p. Never had it on a watch list since, until 6 months ago. I am a value investor that likes to bottom fish, and looking to the future (not the last 3 years), JKX has my interest.

[2bung] 12/2/2013 10:25

well i was in here for a long time, and took a huge loss. nothing from the company, now an almost daily RNS. Would never put a penny here again

[s34icknote] 12/2/2013 08:11

Think this is going to recover to 80 p quickly.