Jkx Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[s34icknote] 12/2/2013 08:11

Think this is going to recover to 80 p quickly.

[salpara111] 11/2/2013 23:19

As someone who escaped relatively unscathed last year with just a few hundred lost on a spread bet I am now wondering if the tide has finally turned here.
I still have little confidence in the management but if the market feels that there is now a floor at current levels then I think that I might put my money back on the table again.

[wallywoo] 11/2/2013 15:02

2Bung. What have they done so badly. Its cheap or in your eyes lost trust because they expanded into Russia, which cost more than they thought and took longer than they thought (a very common problem for new developments in the industry). In addition production seems to have struggled in the Ukraine for the last few quarters - it is not an exact science and the Russia setup meant they spent less on developing the Ukraine fields, which have always required a fair investment to keep production good. BUT:

1) they have a long track record of running and exploiting these fields and have several exciting drills and fracking ops to come in the next 6 months

2) the main spend on Russia has been completed which depending on the success of (1) should mean good cashflow that can be distributed to shareholders (dividend in 6 to 12 months IMO - JKX have a long track record of paying good divi's)

3) They have $500M of net assets and a market cap of $160M ish. If they get them all moving in the right direction (and we will have lots of news flow over the next few months) this should turn round quickly

Despite the large volume the institutions have not sold out and 1 has added over the last few weeks. I am with them (well over 70% of JKX is owned by institutions and directors). I think most of the volume has been speculators, which also means there could be a quick turn around here. Time will tell

[2bung] 11/2/2013 12:19

they'll find it very hard to win back shareholder trust here

[mgbroad] 11/2/2013 11:51

Gas upgrade ?

[smartypants] 07/2/2013 13:30

big reaction to a little news

[salpara111] 07/2/2013 10:55

So, from being as quiet as a trappist monk they have now decided on an "RNS a day" to keep a falling share price away!

[nicky21] 06/2/2013 17:39

Previous Holdings

The Boston Company Asset Management

5,485,179 3.20%




Todays Holdings

8,818,973 5.14%

so its them been buying lately all this volume

[nicky21] 06/2/2013 09:19

this ones more acurate( FSA) site you need to click the bottom link on the right side.

[g8ta] 06/2/2013 09:08

nicky21 - I think that's just stock on loan and not necessary being sold into the market or short.

Try this site (bottom right - Short Interest by Markit)



How accurate it is, I don't know.

[g8ta] 06/2/2013 08:54

To correct my earlier statement-

From 24th April 2012

"The agreement is valid for three years and, if justified by test production from well M-53, it envisages the recompletion of two further existing wells owned by UGD in the Elizavetovskoye licence and the installation of a stand-alone gas treatment plant. Thereafter, PPC can develop the field as it chooses and all production from any wells drilled by PPC will be wholly owned by PPC. "

[nicky21] 06/2/2013 08:38

does anyone think the short postions on this site are correct...???
quite a bit of volume again today.

[g8ta] 06/2/2013 08:35

thegreatgeraldo - No, you are correct. I looked through the 2011 report and they keep production from E301, so may apply to the new wells. A stand alone facility sounds expensive for a small reservoir, but they may upgrade the reserves.

Sigala - I also sold up and agree with what you say. That October IMS looked so positive.

The finals should be out towards the end of next month.

[nicky21] 06/2/2013 08:34

i wander now if directors will buy some now that most of the news is out of the way?

[nicky21] 06/2/2013 08:30

am out of there ...
i had JKX for on my monitor and i never really expected them to go this low..








purple11
5 Feb'13 - 23:23 - 1057 of 1060 0 0


nicky you still in blvn ?

[thegreatgeraldo] 06/2/2013 00:37

g8ta
5 Feb'13 - 23:38 - 1058 of 1059 0 0

Then they're off to drill the Elizavetovskoye licence in June. This is the one where JKX is only entitled to 33%. Reserves for this license are 0.3 MMboe (Probable, nothing proven yet). Huge.

...Are you sure about this? My understanding is that they're entitled to 33% of existing wells. Any new wells drilled are 100% JKX. You've clearly done your research, so please feel free to correct me if you think I'm wrong.

[sigala] 05/2/2013 23:56

g8ta,

more good analysis - cheers.

I liquidated my small stake in JKX the other day after their sneaky little update contained within the main RNS. At the time you pointed out that it reavealed a severe drop off in their core Ukrainian production.

I didn't like the way that hugely important piece of information seemed to b buried in lots of other text.

As you say - production in the Ukraine will probably fall further (perhaps quite a lot further) before they can stabilise it. And who really cares if they get their difficult Russian project up to full speed? With gas realisations so low in that country its not going to cover the big gap opening up in their Ukrainian operations.

In hindsight the BoD's decision to invest so much money building a gas plant in Russia where gas is dirt cheap - seems unwise.

I am not sure where JKX are heading and I don't think the BoD have been "fronting up" to the market in the way they should have been.

[g8ta] 05/2/2013 23:38

So bits of information slowly leak out. The company was so cash strapped they had to hire out one of their rigs late Q3. But doesn't that sort of leave them without equipment to develop their own licenses? Is this one of the reasons for the severe drop in output in Ukraine?

Then they're off to drill the Elizavetovskoye licence in June. This is the one where JKX is only entitled to 33%. Reserves for this license are 0.3 MMboe (Probable, nothing proven yet). Huge.

All in all, a strange rns, I feel.

Enquest are issuing a bond with a coupon of 5.5%. Not convertible, not subordinated, not 8% and starting at £2000 so the little people can have some. Isn't that a sensible way for a company to raise capital? JKX's bond seems desperate in comparison, which I suppose it is.

Isn't a convertible bond sort of like paying a divi to the select few while the actual shareholders go without. I know the share price has to rise, but even so.

For Q1, I feel production is more likely to go down in Ukraine than up. And then into summer, and summer gas prices.

Short interest still confident.

[purple11] 05/2/2013 23:23

nicky you still in blvn ?

[nicky21] 05/2/2013 18:47

one small step at a time...

lets get to 10000 first...then...12000..then ...15000...then 20000

[wallywoo] 05/2/2013 09:39

In addition, just look at that volume 2.3 M shares already traded. This along with yesterdays volume shows there is alot happening behind the scenes here.

I don't expect a takeover here, but do expect a company changing 6 months. It is hard to guess what production could be in 6 months - anything from 6000 bopd to 20,000. Place your bets.

[nicky21] 05/2/2013 09:30

small step at a time..

its been a gradual fall from £3 now a gradual rise.

[deanroberthunt] 05/2/2013 09:09

looks like it's going to take better news tt get it going.

[nicky21] 05/2/2013 08:54

good news today...


at least ukarine is alive and kicking...

good volume so far ...

expect them shorts to close...or will be panicing.

all this needs now is a takeover rumour at these lowly prices.

[deanroberthunt] 05/2/2013 08:02

that'll help sentiment too...