Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 03/4/2024 07:41

Hedged barrels if I recall are between 7,000-8,000 boe/d for the next few quarters - I have assumed all CWLH and Penmal production to be hedged (in excess of hedged barrels).
 
CWLH (Brent? No mention of adj in H1 23 Results) 4,400 $75.00 $120,450,000
PENMAL (H1 23 Premium to Brent $3.5) 6,500 $78.50 $186,241,250

Fardels Bear2 Apr '24 - 15:52 - 21208 of 21210
0 2 0
Hedges?

[ashkv] 03/4/2024 07:39

Lets wait for Penmal production figures.

Stag has been around 2500 boe/d for the past few years and has been guided at that figure by management in January 2024

[pughman] 02/4/2024 15:13

The PM figure is too high, with the increasing water cut from the infills and Stag will fall a lot short of 2500 without another costly infill.

[ashkv] 02/4/2024 14:02

Jadestone Energy 2024 Revenue Forecast at Brent = $90
Brent $1 increase corresponding JSE 2024 Revenue uplift $4,148,590

MONTARA (H1 23 Premium to Brent $1.5) 5,500 $91.50 $183,686,250
STAG (H1 23 Premium to Brent $16) 2,500 $106.50 $97,181,250
CWLH (Brent? No mention of adj in H1 23 Results) 4,400 $75.00 $120,450,000
PENMAL (H1 23 Premium to Brent $3.5) 6,500 $78.50 $186,241,250
SINPHUHORM (Reported as Dividend for JSE Share) 1,500 ??? using same Boe rate as Akatara $17,169,600
AKATARA (6,000 Boe/d Gas From H2 2024) 3,000 US$5.6/MMBtu or US$31.36 per Boe $34,339,200(Akatara conservative estimate as assuming production is all gas with no LPG or Condensates)

Total JSE Projected Revenue for 2024 at an Average Brent price of US$90 = $639,067,550

[tom111] 02/4/2024 08:58

JSE must be coining it atm with oil nearing $90.So many issues going on atm there is every reason to believe it will be at this level for sometime to come.

[tom111] 29/3/2024 17:04

Never wanted this deal to go through it seems more trouble than its worth and probably incur a large amount of debt as well. What if they have problems like Montana had i dread to think.As MT rightly says SE Asia seems the future.

[mount teide] 29/3/2024 12:59

The Australian Offshore Industry's unions & workers seem to be relatively cultured and sophisticated compared to their port industry namesakes - many of whose limited and highly colourful vocabulary would put a New York mob boss to shame.

Can remember a company containership getting its loading delayed in Sydney for 2hrs because some of the dockers refused to return from their lunch break ashore, until they had finished a big money game of poker in the canteen. `Even the UK dockers when employed under the Dock labour Scheme would not have had the nerve to pull that stunt!

When we forwarded an official complaint to the Port Manager, he came on board and just threw his hands in the air and said to the Chief Officer "What do you expect me to do?.....You know what they're like mate, they take more f'ing notice of their wives than they do me!" And then turned around and went back ashore to his office!

I would prefer Jadestone to concentrate their future M&A activity on Operatorship type deals in SE Asia(Malaysia in particular), and restrict any further Australian deals to just attractively priced, high quality non operated shareholdings - like the recent acquisition of a larger chunk of the CWLH fields.....as this would enable us to leave the interaction with the Offshore Regulator and, contract negotiations with the heavily unionised Australian workforce to deep pocketed operators like Woodside, Shell, BP and Santos.

[sea7] 29/3/2024 11:12

yep - there are a couple of other mentions for jadestone on that site, dated in January, however, woodside do really get some stick

[fireplace22] 29/3/2024 11:02

Sounds about as welcoming as the UK although the unions here may be a force for sanity if only to retain their members jobs. In Aus it seems everyone is against the oilers.

[ashkv] 28/3/2024 06:40

I view that there are better deals for JSE to undertake.

However, if JSE were to get the below fields valued 2 years ago at USD630mn by a premier accounting firm with conservative assumptions at a sweetheart price... it would be a positive!!!

Trust management has imbibed lessons and will bid with an adequate safety margin!!! Other fish to fry....

From Sea7

document dated April 2022
in the merger of woodside/BHP, KPMG had macedon and pyrenees valued at (PAGE 133)
macedon - low $308m - high $315m
pyrenees -low $321m - high $323m

pyrenees
The estimated D&R obligation totals US$820 million. D&R is incurred between 2034 and 2047 and peaks in 2039 and 2040. D&R activities are planned to commence two years prior to the end of field life.
pyrenees - Since first oil in 2010, the FPSO has been regularly dry docked in 2014 and 2019, with the next scheduled dry docking expected in 2024, assuming a 5-year scheduled interval. Field production is constrained by the FPSO water handling limit, currently approximately 148 Mbwpd.

macedon
The Macedon Field has been on production since August 2013 with only one full shutdown during that period (late 2017). Despite occasional problems with communications/control problems with some of the subsea wells, overall system availability has exceeded 98%.
The estimated obligation in relation to D&R totals US$377 million, the majority of which is incurred between 2033 and 2035.

[1ajm] 27/3/2024 13:38

Are the D & R obligation figures for Macdeon $377mn & Pyrenees $820mn incorrect?

I'll correct my post from nearly $1bn to OVER $1bn, Thank you Nigel.

Tom, Nigel spends his time living in a delusional paradox where everything at JSE is positive and fine and the share price collapse over the last 2 years has been unfair, the whole market is wrong and he is right. In his mind $1bn+ in fees for a $100m Market cap company is meaningless and isn't worth thinking about.

The irony of ash posting about 67p by his beloved forecasters that were all pumping 100p+++ hasn't gone unnoticed. You're going to have to swallow that one matey. Lesson learned maybe. Or is 60p all good now?




Is there a general breakdown for how D & R figures are reached? It's all I asked.

[sea7] 27/3/2024 13:26

another housekeeping rns

[ashkv] 27/3/2024 11:38

As of today 12 Month Analyst Target Price for JSE is 67p

Most positive JSE analyst has 12 Month Target Price at 92p

[ashkv] 27/3/2024 11:34

Was the RBL Update guided for March 2024?

Also if I recall Akatara First Gas in system was for March 2024? [A preliminary step to full production]

An update prior to FY Results towards the end of April 2024 would be most welcome :)

This new acquisition only makes sense if JSE is properly sorted for the decommissioning spend for the less interesting gas assets!!!

Hopefully onwards and upwards to 100p by year end 2024 :)

P.S. Have an inkling that a partner for the Vietnam gas assets might be announced soon ;)

[mount teide] 27/3/2024 09:50

From reading the full debate, you get the impression the Unions representing the offshore workers are trying to extend their power and control over the offshore industry, despite it being managed to a very high standard by the Australian regulatory authorities.

Compare this to the North Sea, where the HSE reported in its latest statistics for 2022, a total of 175 Dangerous Occurrences and over 1,000 'non compliance issues' across the Industry's North Sea Structures and FPSO's.

[tom111] 27/3/2024 08:44

That explains it!!!

[nigelpm] 27/3/2024 08:23

Making it up as he goes along again. ignore Forrest.

[tom111] 27/3/2024 08:19

I read somewhere that it was a lot lower than that, someone posted an article about it

[1ajm] 26/3/2024 23:35

COO appointment needed now more than ever.

Can general breakdowns for the outrageous decommissioning liabilities of these assets be found officially anywhere? Would be interested on how they are over $1bn.

Is it a government pay-day (tax) bumping up the numbers?

[yasx] 26/3/2024 20:12

It never ends….

[yasx] 26/3/2024 20:12

It never ends….