Iqgeo Share Discussion Threads

[w13ken] 07/12/2023 00:12

Xcel looks like a perfect match with the RNS - nice detective work pf.

Market cap $34.2billion!
2022 Revenue $15.31 billion!

Xcel Energy receives $100 million Department of Energy grant to boost wildfire mitigation and grid resiliency:


Andy Gay, is shown as a former Utilities Director at IQGeo in this 2021 blog where he says he used to work for Xcel:


He still appears to be a consultant for IQGeo as he was the person chosen to announce 2 major US contract wins on LinkedIn just 4 months ago:

[p1nkfish] 06/12/2023 20:14

Sound familiar, Xcel?

"Xcel Energy Inc. is a U.S. regulated electric utility and natural gas delivery company based in Minneapolis, Minnesota, serving more than 3.7 million electric customers and 2.1 million natural gas customers across parts of eight states (Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and New Mexico).[3] It consists of four operating subsidiaries: Northern States Power-Minnesota, Northern States Power-Wisconsin, Public Service Company of Colorado, and Southwestern Public Service Co.[4]" - Wikipedia

Sept 2023, looking tovadd substantial new green sources - Adaptive Grid useful -

Land and expand.

[p1nkfish] 06/12/2023 19:52

Want to see a weekly close > 308.5p on above weekly average volume for the past 3 months.
Interesting trade for £75.5k approx at approx 16:28. £3.10.

[w13ken] 06/12/2023 17:51

There has been an exceptional 50% bounce back from the sudden drop in October and today's Tier 1 contract RNS underlines that IQGeo can win tough bidding processes so the land and expand concept kicks in.

Also, as per the Capital Markets Day feedback, where IQG even gets trials they are 80% likely to win a contract. Only caveat on getting too carried away today is that the RNS was marked as a Reach update so it stated that the information contained is not considered to have a significant impact on management's expectations of the Group's performance. Hopefully that is just them being cautious as staff and marketing costs will have risen in 2023.

Cambridge's Business Weekly e-paper article closes with Richard Petti's comments on the potential upside from here and that we are reapproaching all-time highs. Exciting times ahead I believe. DYOR.

“We are at the beginning of a major investment phase for the utility industry as it redesigns its networks to meet net zero carbon objectives. I expect this investment to parallel the growth cycle we saw in the telecom industry in previous years with a strong trajectory for the next decade and IQGeo is well positioned to benefit from this large capex cycle.”

The company’s UK share price was up this morning and closing in on the 52-week high."

[p1nkfish] 06/12/2023 09:07

Look at the ratio of market opportunity in Utilities (even Grid alone) to Fiber and then project a similar trajectory with Utilities following Fiber.

Even if the rate of uptake is considerably slower than Fiber and IQGEO penetration 25% of that of their Fiber, little of it is priced in. Understandable as it sounds like jam tomorrow but IQGEO now have the right products, tried and tested processes for accessing their target markets and an ever increasing pool of experience and talent to tap into.

I stand by thinking we will have a staging point at £4.25, or the equivalent market cap (£261M), I just don't know when.

If they get it right then £4.25 will be conservative and those selling in the 200p-300p range will be surprised.

Dyor, etc.

[p1nkfish] 06/12/2023 08:00

Excellent news and I would expect this to begin to playout in a similar fashion to the Fiber market.

Onward.

[p1nkfish] 03/12/2023 12:33

Shareholder page still has update date of May 2023 but has been updated.

Note they used to have visibility on 83.8% of issued capital on that page out of 61,545,492 shares.
It's now down to 78.2% visibility out of 61,577,159 shares.

3,436,068 shares now under the radar compared to May 2023.

[p1nkfish] 03/12/2023 10:51

Here us a link, need to register to read it and frankly not worth it.
GE fishing for leads.
Failure to mention much about workflow of DER integration and field.

I would expect substantial opportunity for growth in the mobile first area for DER integrators the future grid will need.

[p1nkfish] 03/12/2023 09:16

There was a Gartner report in Jan 2023 of general interest related to Utilities/Grid operators needing to become more Ecosystem Centric and less Ego-Centic. Now available if you register somewhere via GE Digital. Not allowed to reproduce it but two things struck me:

1) They missed the importance of the field by a mile. It gave a helicopter view what I would consider large large holes in it.

2) A prediction I can believe - investment in IT and operational technology enabling collaboration, integration and orchestration of non-utility-owned energy resources will quadruple compared to 2022 by end of 2026. That has a substantial mobile software demand for ticketing, recording etc etc including BYOD needs for 3rd party contractors +++. A critical link back to efficient System of Record maintenance +++.

Factor of 4x increase in 4 years. Adaptive Grid need only capture a small amount and we are off to the races imho........

[horseyphil] 02/12/2023 16:04

So, compared to their holdings on 31st December 2022, the big buyer has been Charles Stanley which has added 2,686,000 shares. Kestrel has also added 400K.

The main sellers have been Columbia Threadneedle, which has reduced by 1.25Mn shares (but still has 15.81%) and Canaccord which sold 646K, though still holds 9.56%.

The other major seller has been NFU Mutual which held 2.787Mn (4.5%) at the start of 2023 but is no longer listed as a 3% holder.

[p1nkfish] 02/12/2023 14:30

Latest 3%+ holders list now on the website.

[p1nkfish] 01/12/2023 15:32

Re-posting as I think this is important from 27th Oct 2023. Post 1596.

"Dated today.

US Gov Energy site. Can't get a better recommendation than this by WAPA on the US Gov site also noting what I recently saw referencing the importance placed on this area by US DOE. Excellent.





"In January 2022, WAPA implemented a new system called IQGeo, a reporting tool that allows craft employees, or virtually any WAPA employee or contractor in the field, to report any potential hazards.

“Previous tools required extensive time for reported issues to be viewable by office staff; this would sometimes result in issues not being viewable for weeks after a hazard was identified,” explained Acting IT Supervisor Christine Budd. “IQGeo allows field users to sync data from anywhere, enabling office staff to see issues as they are reported.”"

[p1nkfish] 30/11/2023 08:39

Possibly holding back on blowing a trumpet on Adaptive Grid until the share price fully shows the potential of Fiber and they have some Grid win/news to propel it further otherwise Fiber will be lost under the Grid hoo-ha.

Extracting share price value from one thing at a time but grid is certainly the big one.

Fiber
Grid
Smart Meter Roll-outs
Distributed Heat
Gas

What else could be added that would utilise the core "Build Better Networks" capabilities?

[w13ken] 29/11/2023 11:17

Ha ha, there is a coffee break spike :)

[horseyphil] 29/11/2023 09:33

I got that invite too W13Ken. We'll see if it works.

[w13ken] 29/11/2023 09:22

Nice idea pf. Jumped in for a nibble at 267 and will hope the bigwigs are impressed. Not sure why but I seem to have bagged an invitation to join the CMD Investor Meet call. May as well tag along.

[p1nkfish] 29/11/2023 07:00

Why not place a limit buy at support to see if you can catch stock off anyone that gets bored. 257 and 243, half each? There's bound to be more churn along the way until it does a convincing weekly close above 291.5p (>300p best) and ideally a monthly close over 307p.

After those levels there is a decent chance it stays up, consolidates then onwards, IF they don't drop the ball.

[w13ken] 28/11/2023 15:59

With the slight drop again I thought I might buy a few short-term in my Trading account but we do get stung on the spread with IQG: 262/274 is about 4.5% loss before I get started. Will stick to LTH in the ISA for now...

[p1nkfish] 28/11/2023 13:11

On the way down it could be that many shares fell into the hands of holders not intending to sell for just 10-15% and now we see the result - high leverage to buys on the way back up.

If so we have the Capital Markets day + future news + TU/EOY in Jan/Feb and operational leverage showing in much improved EBITDA through 2024.

Suggests price likely to respond positively even without a piece of unexpected good news - that good news is >> 50% possible imho. I don't believe they will be satisfied with just plodding along but actively want out-sized profitable growth.

TBD. Dyor etc.

[p1nkfish] 28/11/2023 10:33

Probably no known new RNS (contract wins) for a while post NED purchase as if he'd have known he wouldn't have bought.

Pretty sure there will be some useful news but a discrete distance in time.

A waiting game.

[w13ken] 28/11/2023 10:10

Significant marker for us tomorrow with Capital Markets Day. I'm optimistic that a 2hr+ session with institutional Investors and sell-side analysts will be received positively and there'll be a shareprice boost this week but there'll be no new material financial info shared so it's all about selling the latest product and its future potential.

Positive to see that a NED bought £24k of shares yesterday so they're optimistic on the presentation results. If we don't see a boost this week then it could be a long winter.

[p1nkfish] 27/11/2023 09:39

UK software sector is under the cosh, some deserve to be but others are held back by general sentiment to the sector and UK. Like a saddo I went over the sector yesterday from ACC to ZOO and everything in between. IQG has seen some shorting and profit taking but is holding its own vs others. That is often a sign that when a turn does occur it will be out of the traps fast.

Certainly addressing supportive demands.

I would like to see the "Build Better Networks" mantra applied to more end markets, that along with an uptick in Grid news vs Fibre.

Distributed Heat - OK - but a real need for Smart Meter news and Germany has been behind in the roll-out.

Anything to show they have a long runway of potential growth and as many as possible end market segments that need to "Build Better Networks". Running out of runway, or the perception of such, is a killer for a growth company. That 8% forecast for next year (can't stop mentioning it) could be interpreted as indicating a limited runway for a SaaS company.

Perception really matters when richly valued. That said I do think this is worth > £3/share and still have £4.25 as a staging post per share - just don't know when.

[horseyphil] 27/11/2023 09:10

Capital Markets Day on Wednesday 29th.

Always have to be extremely wary of comparing valuation multiples between UK- and US-listed shares, but in the case of IQG it is perhaps somewhat meaningful given that so much of IQG's revenue is earned in the US and Canada.

Bentley Systems, listed on Nasdaq (BSY) and with a market cap of $15bn, is valued at almost 13x annual sales. IQG is valued at under 4x its forecast 2023 AR. There are many similarities between the 2 companies.

That valuation gap won't go unnoticed.

[p1nkfish] 24/11/2023 08:28

The major shareholder list should be updated every 6 months under AIM rules, if I remember correctly. It's now over 6 months since last refresh. Ready before 29th?