Iqgeo Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 24/11/2023 08:21

IQGEO have won the 2023 INCA award for Network Manager Telecom. Let's hope it increases exposure and sales opportunities.

[p1nkfish] 17/11/2023 14:28

All comes down to sales.

[p1nkfish] 17/11/2023 14:15

Grid news would help. A fibre play looks like a 1 trick pony.

I'm still thinking the 8% revenue increase was the problem even though much better margin s/w replacing services. A small SaaS company should have a better headline than that, at that rate it would take 9 years to double the top line and growth investors won't be interested. A small company like this should be doing better than that or go home and that's after 2x acquisitions.

A group like Constellation might make a decent parent and "get" how to run them well. Even though large they did 23% revenue growth overall at results announced last week. Their formula has worked for years.

They look for 'Consistent earnings and growth — generally EBITDA/revenue + revenue growth of 20 percent or more per year' in exceptional companies.

If they appear too reliant on fibre you have to ask where growth will come from 5 years from now and will they be stuck in a medium sized low growth trap. The multiple will suffer if they are and so would any sales price.

[red ninja] 17/11/2023 13:00

If we get taken over it's liable to be an opportunistic bid.
Thus, I'm hoping this can go longer term.

[w13ken] 17/11/2023 12:52

Also a long-term investor but decided to buy some in Trading for 229p. I think there should be sales in the pipeline that will turn the shareprice around. There have also been some high-profile takeovers of smaller UK companies this week so that remains a possibility. I'd prefer IQGeo built themselves up for a few more years but a Hotel Chocolat-like premium of 170% would be interesting.

[p1nkfish] 17/11/2023 12:04

Tend to be a long term invesator.

Looking at the monthly candles, last time we were in this state was around Jan 2019 and remained in that state for 12 months. If history repeats, full trend change on the monthly is some way off, possibly post summer 2024 - Sept/Oct.

The time before that was June 2014 and didn't reverse for just short of 4 YEARS, May 2018 approx.

Let us hope it's 2019 or better, not 2014. It should be as situation is massively improved.

[p1nkfish] 12/11/2023 17:01

Since 1st July 2023 Andy Mcleod has also been a NED on the ARQIVA board, majority owned by Digital 9.

[w13ken] 09/11/2023 10:05

Seems Michael Taylor has started shorting again. Hopefully just short-term pain.

[p1nkfish] 09/11/2023 09:40

That 2024 8% revenue growth figure appeared as a "finger in the air" to me and the need below could help accuracy going forward. Accuracy becomes ever more important as the company goes from small to medium and ideally larger. The market takes no prisoners currently.

[p1nkfish] 03/11/2023 14:33

General read, IQGEO HR, released today:

[p1nkfish] 03/11/2023 10:26

Would be interesting to know who was picking up the sales when it was heading down and if they intend to hang around. If so, supply of stock to the market will be tighter and those shaken out replaced by stronger hands.

If had time would take a look at the profile down (amount of sales needed to drive the price lower) vs the profile so far on the way back up.

Also, the more I look at the 8% revenue growth forecast (even allowing for the servicing sales to fall and be replaced by higher margin s/w sales = much improved EBITDA) I'm of the opinion it's a conservative figure and will come in > 8%. No way will they allow a forecast out there for such a headline figure and then miss it.

Just mho, dyor etc.

[horseyphil] 03/11/2023 09:42

Looks like Shorters getting caught short.

NakedTrader was stopped out on part of his holding but has been buying back in. Had this to say about IQG in his latest diary update:

'Given these types of software companies are getting bought up, this has gone pretty high on my list of potential bid targets.

It's winning contracts and lots of positives in general.

It's running an event for likely investors and funds on Nov 29th, be interesting to see if any buys come in then.

I reckon IQG will get a bid and won't be with us within the next year.'

[p1nkfish] 01/11/2023 10:10

Someone was taking in the sales on the way down. Price response today is interesting at relatively low volume.

[babbler] 01/11/2023 09:51

When are you putting a takeover offer in there? Have you ditched your gatc ramps now?

[p1nkfish] 01/11/2023 07:07

At last coming out fighting for more institutional attention. RNS referencing the Capital Markets Day.
Reads as if the bottom 2 Tiers of the Editions has gained traction and I suspect they are at decent margins too. The Enterprise end likley the RNS'able size of wins as at the larger customers.

The bottom 2 tiers offer good resilience against competition as they have to take them away one by one to damage IQGEO.

[wjccghcc] 31/10/2023 15:17

Well I've bought back the ones I sold around 250p for 190-205p. I've had two bids now for software companies (INS, SPE) at substantial premiums. The SPE bid values it at 105mm and given the growth runway for IQG, the current mkt cap of 120mm is a steal IMHO. It may fall further but I don't want to be out of any of the leading niche software companies in this M&A environment - been buying back NET, GHT, EYE and ECK as well.

[p1nkfish] 31/10/2023 13:45

That sale was a puzzle.

[horseyphil] 31/10/2023 13:33

I think it all kicked off with the CFO's share sale. That's never a good look in a growth company.

The decline has been on low volume.

At some point the shorters will have to close their positions. Risky proposition shorting illiquid shares like this when a major contract win or bid could be announced any time.

[p1nkfish] 31/10/2023 13:27

It might open up the opportunity for an institution or two to build a stake after the CMP. More attractive at these prices. Someone is picking up the sales.

[p1nkfish] 31/10/2023 13:23

Yes, but the bigger holders unlikely to let go anywhere near this price.

How much of this is a reaction to the last set of the results, previous high rating, miscommunication, wider market sell-off, shorters........all these?

Is there something else we don't see?

Kestrel have stood aside when they were previously adding at 290p+ and their portfolio must have felt it as now down approx 33% and was a decent % overall for them.

Capital Markets Day next and possibly news thereafter, can't see much happening before.

For anyone with a 3-5 year horizon the price looks interesting now and certainly will be if it get close the 20 week EMA.

[horseyphil] 31/10/2023 12:38

If it stays down at these levels for long, there must be a serious chance of a bid.

Any number of companies that might be interested - Oracle, Tata, CGI etc etc.

[johndoe23] 31/10/2023 10:11

That's my target

[p1nkfish] 31/10/2023 09:17

160p for 200 wk ema, should be decent support if it gets there.