Iqgeo Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 03/12/2023 10:51

Here us a link, need to register to read it and frankly not worth it.
GE fishing for leads.
Failure to mention much about workflow of DER integration and field.

I would expect substantial opportunity for growth in the mobile first area for DER integrators the future grid will need.

[p1nkfish] 03/12/2023 09:16

There was a Gartner report in Jan 2023 of general interest related to Utilities/Grid operators needing to become more Ecosystem Centric and less Ego-Centic. Now available if you register somewhere via GE Digital. Not allowed to reproduce it but two things struck me:

1) They missed the importance of the field by a mile. It gave a helicopter view what I would consider large large holes in it.

2) A prediction I can believe - investment in IT and operational technology enabling collaboration, integration and orchestration of non-utility-owned energy resources will quadruple compared to 2022 by end of 2026. That has a substantial mobile software demand for ticketing, recording etc etc including BYOD needs for 3rd party contractors +++. A critical link back to efficient System of Record maintenance +++.

Factor of 4x increase in 4 years. Adaptive Grid need only capture a small amount and we are off to the races imho........

[horseyphil] 02/12/2023 16:04

So, compared to their holdings on 31st December 2022, the big buyer has been Charles Stanley which has added 2,686,000 shares. Kestrel has also added 400K.

The main sellers have been Columbia Threadneedle, which has reduced by 1.25Mn shares (but still has 15.81%) and Canaccord which sold 646K, though still holds 9.56%.

The other major seller has been NFU Mutual which held 2.787Mn (4.5%) at the start of 2023 but is no longer listed as a 3% holder.

[p1nkfish] 02/12/2023 14:30

Latest 3%+ holders list now on the website.

[p1nkfish] 01/12/2023 15:32

Re-posting as I think this is important from 27th Oct 2023. Post 1596.

"Dated today.

US Gov Energy site. Can't get a better recommendation than this by WAPA on the US Gov site also noting what I recently saw referencing the importance placed on this area by US DOE. Excellent.





"In January 2022, WAPA implemented a new system called IQGeo, a reporting tool that allows craft employees, or virtually any WAPA employee or contractor in the field, to report any potential hazards.

“Previous tools required extensive time for reported issues to be viewable by office staff; this would sometimes result in issues not being viewable for weeks after a hazard was identified,” explained Acting IT Supervisor Christine Budd. “IQGeo allows field users to sync data from anywhere, enabling office staff to see issues as they are reported.”"

[p1nkfish] 30/11/2023 08:39

Possibly holding back on blowing a trumpet on Adaptive Grid until the share price fully shows the potential of Fiber and they have some Grid win/news to propel it further otherwise Fiber will be lost under the Grid hoo-ha.

Extracting share price value from one thing at a time but grid is certainly the big one.

Fiber
Grid
Smart Meter Roll-outs
Distributed Heat
Gas

What else could be added that would utilise the core "Build Better Networks" capabilities?

[w13ken] 29/11/2023 11:17

Ha ha, there is a coffee break spike :)

[horseyphil] 29/11/2023 09:33

I got that invite too W13Ken. We'll see if it works.

[w13ken] 29/11/2023 09:22

Nice idea pf. Jumped in for a nibble at 267 and will hope the bigwigs are impressed. Not sure why but I seem to have bagged an invitation to join the CMD Investor Meet call. May as well tag along.

[p1nkfish] 29/11/2023 07:00

Why not place a limit buy at support to see if you can catch stock off anyone that gets bored. 257 and 243, half each? There's bound to be more churn along the way until it does a convincing weekly close above 291.5p (>300p best) and ideally a monthly close over 307p.

After those levels there is a decent chance it stays up, consolidates then onwards, IF they don't drop the ball.

[w13ken] 28/11/2023 15:59

With the slight drop again I thought I might buy a few short-term in my Trading account but we do get stung on the spread with IQG: 262/274 is about 4.5% loss before I get started. Will stick to LTH in the ISA for now...

[p1nkfish] 28/11/2023 13:11

On the way down it could be that many shares fell into the hands of holders not intending to sell for just 10-15% and now we see the result - high leverage to buys on the way back up.

If so we have the Capital Markets day + future news + TU/EOY in Jan/Feb and operational leverage showing in much improved EBITDA through 2024.

Suggests price likely to respond positively even without a piece of unexpected good news - that good news is >> 50% possible imho. I don't believe they will be satisfied with just plodding along but actively want out-sized profitable growth.

TBD. Dyor etc.

[p1nkfish] 28/11/2023 10:33

Probably no known new RNS (contract wins) for a while post NED purchase as if he'd have known he wouldn't have bought.

Pretty sure there will be some useful news but a discrete distance in time.

A waiting game.

[w13ken] 28/11/2023 10:10

Significant marker for us tomorrow with Capital Markets Day. I'm optimistic that a 2hr+ session with institutional Investors and sell-side analysts will be received positively and there'll be a shareprice boost this week but there'll be no new material financial info shared so it's all about selling the latest product and its future potential.

Positive to see that a NED bought £24k of shares yesterday so they're optimistic on the presentation results. If we don't see a boost this week then it could be a long winter.

[p1nkfish] 27/11/2023 09:39

UK software sector is under the cosh, some deserve to be but others are held back by general sentiment to the sector and UK. Like a saddo I went over the sector yesterday from ACC to ZOO and everything in between. IQG has seen some shorting and profit taking but is holding its own vs others. That is often a sign that when a turn does occur it will be out of the traps fast.

Certainly addressing supportive demands.

I would like to see the "Build Better Networks" mantra applied to more end markets, that along with an uptick in Grid news vs Fibre.

Distributed Heat - OK - but a real need for Smart Meter news and Germany has been behind in the roll-out.

Anything to show they have a long runway of potential growth and as many as possible end market segments that need to "Build Better Networks". Running out of runway, or the perception of such, is a killer for a growth company. That 8% forecast for next year (can't stop mentioning it) could be interpreted as indicating a limited runway for a SaaS company.

Perception really matters when richly valued. That said I do think this is worth > £3/share and still have £4.25 as a staging post per share - just don't know when.

[horseyphil] 27/11/2023 09:10

Capital Markets Day on Wednesday 29th.

Always have to be extremely wary of comparing valuation multiples between UK- and US-listed shares, but in the case of IQG it is perhaps somewhat meaningful given that so much of IQG's revenue is earned in the US and Canada.

Bentley Systems, listed on Nasdaq (BSY) and with a market cap of $15bn, is valued at almost 13x annual sales. IQG is valued at under 4x its forecast 2023 AR. There are many similarities between the 2 companies.

That valuation gap won't go unnoticed.

[p1nkfish] 24/11/2023 08:28

The major shareholder list should be updated every 6 months under AIM rules, if I remember correctly. It's now over 6 months since last refresh. Ready before 29th?

[p1nkfish] 24/11/2023 08:21

IQGEO have won the 2023 INCA award for Network Manager Telecom. Let's hope it increases exposure and sales opportunities.

[p1nkfish] 17/11/2023 14:28

All comes down to sales.

[p1nkfish] 17/11/2023 14:15

Grid news would help. A fibre play looks like a 1 trick pony.

I'm still thinking the 8% revenue increase was the problem even though much better margin s/w replacing services. A small SaaS company should have a better headline than that, at that rate it would take 9 years to double the top line and growth investors won't be interested. A small company like this should be doing better than that or go home and that's after 2x acquisitions.

A group like Constellation might make a decent parent and "get" how to run them well. Even though large they did 23% revenue growth overall at results announced last week. Their formula has worked for years.

They look for 'Consistent earnings and growth — generally EBITDA/revenue + revenue growth of 20 percent or more per year' in exceptional companies.

If they appear too reliant on fibre you have to ask where growth will come from 5 years from now and will they be stuck in a medium sized low growth trap. The multiple will suffer if they are and so would any sales price.

[red ninja] 17/11/2023 13:00

If we get taken over it's liable to be an opportunistic bid.
Thus, I'm hoping this can go longer term.

[w13ken] 17/11/2023 12:52

Also a long-term investor but decided to buy some in Trading for 229p. I think there should be sales in the pipeline that will turn the shareprice around. There have also been some high-profile takeovers of smaller UK companies this week so that remains a possibility. I'd prefer IQGeo built themselves up for a few more years but a Hotel Chocolat-like premium of 170% would be interesting.

[p1nkfish] 17/11/2023 12:04

Tend to be a long term invesator.

Looking at the monthly candles, last time we were in this state was around Jan 2019 and remained in that state for 12 months. If history repeats, full trend change on the monthly is some way off, possibly post summer 2024 - Sept/Oct.

The time before that was June 2014 and didn't reverse for just short of 4 YEARS, May 2018 approx.

Let us hope it's 2019 or better, not 2014. It should be as situation is massively improved.

[p1nkfish] 12/11/2023 17:01

Since 1st July 2023 Andy Mcleod has also been a NED on the ARQIVA board, majority owned by Digital 9.