Iqgeo Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 24/10/2023 16:45

If anyone is still short, wouldn't take much news to attract buyers and cause a run to cover. Could happen anytime.

See no reason to change my holding and expect they will meet expectations with a reasonable probability of exceeding.

[horseyphil] 24/10/2023 14:37

Need some Director buys.

[horseyphil] 24/10/2023 14:22

Thanks W13Ken. That would explain a lot. Also, NakedTrader, who says he has a major position in IQG, had a stop-loss at 230.

I'm still a strong believer in the company, though agree with pf that some recent things could have been much better handled or presented. Hopefully they will learn from this.

Still think the potential here is huge. If I didn't have such a substantial holding I would definitely be buying more at these levels.

[w13ken] 24/10/2023 13:49

One contributor to today's fall is Michael Taylor (@shiftingshares) who has 13,500 followers on X/Twitter. He announced at 9am he was short and the shares dropped 20p. Recovered a bit now. I'm holding on...

[p1nkfish] 24/10/2023 12:46

Good. Enjoy.

[p1nkfish] 24/10/2023 10:13

Kestrel have been allocating to Red Centric and Gresham in the past month - not massively abut what looks like volumes that could easily put a floor under IQG.

[p1nkfish] 24/10/2023 09:54

If they meet forecasts (I think they will or exceed), it is now a very good price and with good upside at what I consider high confidence.

Would be a BUY if I didn't already hold enough.

[p1nkfish] 24/10/2023 09:42

TA looks poor and weakening. Lower price point might help clear sells, bring in demand. Depending on what is looked at, the weakest trend since towards Sept 2018 when the price was much, much lower.

Good news is no large holder has gone over a % boundary so most may still be onboard - TBD & value so far sold isn't large % of market cap (vol of shares). May just be some stops taken out from under traders.

Something to instil confidence needed to increase demand for the stock else we bounce in a wide channel imho.

That forecast and the 100K share sale by CFO's wife. With the tax to be paid on it they might have been better off borrowing the money and leaving the shares intact. The fact they didn't do so, as a CFO, is telling.

Hold and wait for me.

[p1nkfish] 23/10/2023 07:49

Partners DeepUp and Deepomatic look very useful plug-ins. Good to see. Add in Google Cloud AI (+ otrhers AI in the cloud offerings) and some very useful capabilities are available to increase the stickiness of IQGEO software.




Overstory just raised cash - $14M - A-round -

[p1nkfish] 16/10/2023 13:42

However, the large long-term cup and handle doesn't appear to have broken down yet and old targets remain in place.

[p1nkfish] 16/10/2023 13:06

All relative under the sun.

To reach the forecast valuation they need about 34% up off the current price. The target may not be arrived at as quickly as I would have thought/hoped, more upside resistance than there was.

It's not all the responsibility of the wider market, very clear communication/explanations needed.

[p1nkfish] 16/10/2023 13:05

Predicting the operational gearing to kick-in which is excellent.

Recent growth has been absolutely stellar & with a decent amount of services (one offs that will reduce or evaporate) so future growth % rates will be off a higher base and with a revenue headwind that needs to be compensated for.

So:

1) One off revenue at lower margin will drop off and be a revenue headwind, not bad.

2) This will be compensated for by higher margin billings picking up the slack & compensating, very good.

3) Overall they will show 8% annual revenue growth at improved margins, MUCH IMPROVED EBITDA, EXCELLENT.

Quality earnings will show through. Possibly could have handled the 8% revenue growth forecast a little better. Market is fickle. Trend in volume of new logos hasn't help either as that wasn't explained clearly at interims presentation.

If IQGEO give the impression of being x-growth already it would be very bad optics at this valuation. Growth is all relative and small/medium SaaS/Cloud businesses with a global offering can hit high % growth rates for decently long runs and that is what they would be compared to.

[p1nkfish] 16/10/2023 12:24

New Proactive 7.45 min video with CEO/CFO.

"Addressing growth predictions, Chapman acknowledges a market forecast of 8% growth for the next year but emphasises a shift in their strategy that will focus on higher-margin software revenues, potentially leading to a 48% growth in their adjusted EBITDA.

The duo remains optimistic about IQGeo's competitive edge and future growth prospects."

Good.

[p1nkfish] 12/10/2023 15:06

Interesting price action and moving up from the danger zone. Good.

[w13ken] 10/10/2023 13:03

IQGeo award prizes to customers and partners. Great for them but also highlights effective use of IQG software.

[w13ken] 09/10/2023 14:12

Me too.
INCA Technical Innovation nominee too. Tis awards season...

[p1nkfish] 09/10/2023 13:47

Good but prefer them to forecast more than 8% revenue growth next year.

[w13ken] 09/10/2023 13:30

Obviously IQG are getting battered at the moment but they are up for another award this Thursday:

"Huge congratulations to the outstanding businesses shortlisted for the AIM Growth Business of the Year Award sponsored by @BGFinvestments - they are @cerillion, @IQGeo_software, Kitwave Group plc, @kooth_plc, @MarksElectrical, @TattonAsset. Winner revealed on 12 Oct!"

I have shares in IQG and Kitwave.

[horseyphil] 06/10/2023 08:42

Good point. You could well be right there RN. They've held a few poor performers of late, so redemptions may well be an issue.

[red ninja] 06/10/2023 08:31

I was wondering if they might need the cash to pay off redemptions from their OEIC funds ?

I mean the markets as a whole are seeing a sell off. I am thinking Kestrel are probably not immune to that.

[horseyphil] 06/10/2023 05:04

Kestrel will soon have >£8mn in funds to deploy from the takeover of Smoove, expected to complete in Q4 2023.

Will be interesting to see whether any, and how much, of this is invested in IQG.

[w13ken] 05/10/2023 12:38

Comsof just received a high rating of 4 in the Broadband Technology Report Diamond Awards. 3.5 and above is considered excellent. Rating info from a BTR blog:

"Specifically, judges used the following scale to determine Diamond scores:

1.0-2.5: Not a valid product
3.0: Useful product, yet commodity
3.5: Solid product with viable attributes that set it apart
4.0-4.5: Excellent product with technical features and performance that provide clear and substantial benefits
5.0: Superb product that sets new standards for performance and/or breaks new ground

Each entry’s scores were averaged and rounded to the nearest full or half Diamond. Note that products are grouped by score (with the highest Diamonds ranking first) and then in alphabetical order. Scores of 3.5 or above are considered excellent and reflect a favorable opinion from the panel. Only products receiving a 3.5 or above are included in this publication."

[p1nkfish] 05/10/2023 09:31

Those may be the signals we should be registering. Kestrel holding steady even though price has fallen and Chapman harvesting a few then predicting 8% revenue growth next year as new logos falling and costs increasing.

Just thinking around the actions of the CFO. The Chapman harvesting is interesting as once the CGT allowance is used the rest would be taxed. It's saying cashing in IQG at 290p was a better trade (after CGT) than borrowing the money for a year or two with interest. What does that say about the expected return on IQGEO vs interest expense then selling the shares after a year or two to pay back borrowing (after CGT), cover interest expense and have some left-over.

Lets say the interest rate would be 7%.

Might be Kestrel know something and can't buy right now as their Board member is aware of some future event.

Interesting to see how this unfolds henceforward until TU after year end. 2024 may not be as positive as I had thought and will be pushed into 2025.

All the signals are in the IMC PDF and the actions of Kestrel and Chapman.

A strong hold and wait a couple of years. Long term cup & handle currently still in place, not broken down yet.