Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[thecrunk] 04/6/2018 13:36

No what I mean is that T - Rowe will have a pre arranged buyer for their 10%.

So they can't sell their own stock to the shorters. They force the shorters to buy from the open market. Pushing up the price. While they offload their 10% to the pre arranged buyer at a pre agreed (higher price) which they have created by squeezing shorters.

T Rowe are not sinply doing this for the interest income on lending out stock.

The shorters will try cover themselves buy buying stock low and holding stock in their bsck pockets.

The real question is how covered the shorts are. That determines how big the bang will be when T Rowe want to sell.

Listen this is one permutation it can play out other ways too depending on the specifics

[monty9] 04/6/2018 13:27

If the shorts are forced to return stock because it is called by T Rowe, they have to buy it from someone. Most likely R Rowe! In other words if T Rowe wish to sell the effect will be muted. If they require the stock for some other purpose the price will rise.

[solderflux] 04/6/2018 13:20

I see T Rowe doing very well at the moment and I think they would want the current play to continue. Two things can change their plans - (1)shorter margins being squeezed and rising risk, and (2) Behaviour of other funds who have much higher entry points and are not making sufficient returns. They could join forces with others funds in similar position and decide to act.

[twatcher] 04/6/2018 13:18

It is just me, or does anyone else see the hole in the the argument that the share price will rise when a 10% holder sells out ?

[thecrunk] 04/6/2018 13:15

Suffernofools.

To respond that simply is the way it works.

T Rowe will sell at some point and when they do sell they will recall the 10% they have loaned out.

Its a simple fact.

The only question is when.

[fuji99] 04/6/2018 13:12

AGM positives filtering through this pm.

[aphrodites] 04/6/2018 13:11

thecrunk

Don't worry, IQE will be taken over and T-Rowe will play an instrumental role.

[suffersnofools] 04/6/2018 13:10

thecrunk - that is simply not how it works. ALL companies have short and long interest. It's just two sides of a coin as has been demonstrated by Ocado and Sainsbury's of late - shorts are just as capable of getting it spectacularly wrong as longs.There are two determinants of the medium and long term SP:1. RAPID profit growth to justify the PE of a growth company - which requires that a) IQE can translate the growth in their key markets and revenues into cash. A point made by BnB. No point in driving revenues in an environment of tightening margins. b) maintaining a technological and competitive advantage to protect said margins. c) developing new revenue streams.2. The wider market and global economy. I've posted my bearish views here several times. I feel this is an area of investing that fans of specific stocks fail to consider seriously enough. I fear something nasty is around the corner and news out of Deutsche Bank does nothing to dampen that.So while I remain positive regarding IQE I am less so re the wider markets.

[thecrunk] 04/6/2018 12:41

I just hope at some point this goes like Ocado.

The only time that will happen is when T-Rowe decide they want to exit.

They will need to recall their shares from the shorters to sell them.

I imagine at a huge holding of more than 10% they will not sell to the market willy nilly. They will arrange a buyer before hand for their 10%.

When that happens I don't know. I would imagine it would be in 2019 once T - Rowe probably think the company has proven itself and they can get the exit they want at their desired price.

Which means ubfortunatley until then we still have the albatross around our neck and are like a small dhinghy being towed behind HMS T Rowe Price.

[richardc77] 04/6/2018 12:40

Don't fret Hyper Al ;)

[hyper ai] 04/6/2018 12:30

hmmm - could close down, which would not be great.

[paradores] 04/6/2018 12:20

Apparent from the statement that visibility is improving, for both near term sales and areas where future revenue growth will be seen. Bodes well IMHO.

[twatcher] 04/6/2018 12:07

The Singer note is stating that the AGM statement is indicating everything is progressing on track, which it does. Therefore one can assume the forward looking statements from IQE are still in place, no re-rating either up and down.

Unsurprising therefore that the two brokers to comment thus far have re-iterated their previous position and target share price

This will remain the case until we get news of extra reactors beyond what is currently known.

[chessmaster10] 04/6/2018 10:10

JamesRowe, it's been quite well documented in the recent updates from IQE customers and others in the VCSEL / 3D sensing space that H1 2018 has been expected to see a breather in demand for VCSELs, before things pick up again in H2 2018.

The iPhone X launch provided a boost last year, now there's a lull, and then things will ramp up again as 3D sensing starts to proliferate.

To me it looks like IQE are managing their production to meet demand where its needed, I see it as a positive. Increased revenues in H2 2018 reflects the fact that VCSELs are higher-margin wafers with respect to wireless.

Look forward to hearing feedback from the AGM today.

[fuji99] 04/6/2018 10:01

The AGM might impress a lot today thus buying and shorts closing will follow.

[american idiot] 04/6/2018 09:50

04 Jun IQE PLC Peel Hunt Buy 113.40 170.00 - Reiterates

[thecrunk] 04/6/2018 09:38

Adjuk I do feel price reaction quite muted.

We need large anchor buyer to burn off shorts.

Maybe one will come.

Or for T Rowe to demand their shares back. I wonder when that is going to happen.

[rivaldo] 04/6/2018 09:29

N+1 Singer retain their Buy and 181p target price this morning.

They summarise:

"IQE’s AGM statement confirms that 2018 has progressed to plan so far. The expected rebalancing of wafer volumes towards Wireless in the first half has occurred, with over 10 new VCSEL chip manufacturers in qualification, supporting
the expectation of a further Photonics ramp-up in H2’18.

We are encouraged to see that commissioning on the new Newport Foundry is progressing to plan and that the new technologies portfolio appears to be gaining traction. We believe that GaN on Silicon and NanoImprint Lithography represent particularly interesting opportunities for the group.

IQE is expected to be strongly H2 weighted, with the expected ramp-up of Photonics in H2’18 and into FY’19 key to our positive stance. We continue to expect further positive news flow as the year progresses and remain supportive."

[adejuk] 04/6/2018 09:29

shorts don't need to pounce
they're all over us today and are going nowhere

[jamesrowe] 04/6/2018 09:19

I guess that those with less rose tinted specs could read it differently...... H1 VCSEL production likely to be down due to use of some of the reactors for qualification for potential new customers plus other reactors that were previously diverted from wireless production to VCSEL production being returned to wireless production. Am I the only one that thinks from this that VCSEL production for H1 is likely to be weak even if wireless mamanges to patch up the financial picture?? Even though I am very positive about the long term story, I suspect that we may have to wait till the end of H2 to see the VCSEL production figures ramping up and that the shorters will be ready to pounce again in September when the H1 figures are announced.

[sspurt] 04/6/2018 09:07

At long last Ainsworth is going and Phil Smith is taking over. About bloody time although I see he has managed to keep his snout in the trough for another 10 months. Ainsworth might have been what was needed 15 years ago but totally over stayed his usefulness to IQE in recent years. This is a much needed change for the better.

[thecrunk] 04/6/2018 09:04

Confirm they should announce tonight an IPAD with 3D sensing?

That should be good for IQE

[paradores] 04/6/2018 08:50

In short (cough) everything is ticking along just fine here. #onwardsandupwards

[fuji99] 04/6/2018 08:32

Decent statements, honest and clear. Will put more confidence in the company future and targets for PI's and especially institutions.