Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[adejuk] 24/5/2018 17:01

here's a simple test
how many know the name of the ceo of vrs?
how many know the name of the ceo of iqe?

[adejuk] 24/5/2018 16:56

the shorters have us by the cojones - that's what's going on
and what is the bod response ?
scuse me - i can't hear.

[ojh2kent] 24/5/2018 16:49

What's going on today :(

[adejuk] 24/5/2018 16:42

cup and handle?
only at the mad hatter's tea party

[gary hindsight] 24/5/2018 16:24

Eeny I don't think you are correct on this. If buy shares at £1 to go long and expect them to reach £1.50 in the long term I can lend them out and get a few per cent extra income. However if I want them back they are obliged to deliver them. Say price goes to £1.50 sooner than I expect I need them back to sell them. I wouldn't accept just getting the value as at the point I loaned them as all the risk is on me for the shorter strategy. If I read your thoughts correctly then in theory the maximum risk the shortest have is the price at the time of borrowing them

[mad foetus] 24/5/2018 16:19

AGM isn't going to be very comfortable for board if share price is around these levels.

[adejuk] 24/5/2018 16:11

i've just put in an order for 20k at 100p
that's where we're going
bloody woeful IR

[meijiman] 24/5/2018 15:51

As I said earlier you get paid for loaning out stock (providing the borrow) so that may be part of the attraction.

[grity] 24/5/2018 15:42

Ime no chartist , but can see a cup & handle, bounce of 1.15 straight to 1.38.

[squire007] 24/5/2018 15:39

Eenyweeny, the lenders of stock want stock/shares back not cash ??!!! They own them ! Or an i missing something?

[joeall] 24/5/2018 15:36

I thought a lot of the funds bought shares on the understanding they had
to keep them for a number of years & if so would need to be refunded in
shares not cash?

[solderflux] 24/5/2018 15:21

No, their shares numbers are intact(owned and loaned). They have not reported any reduction as far as I have seen. In case of T Rowe Price they have actually increased their holding.

[1mthead] 24/5/2018 15:19

Interesting, but I thought market makers don't (and aren't allowed to) hold large positions.

[capt bligh] 24/5/2018 15:10

Surely he lender in accepting money instead of the shares loaned would have to instruct the market as to their reduced holding... have we seen this?

[bramthefrog] 24/5/2018 15:06

HiEenyweeny

Are you sure this is right. Surely if they have loaned out the shares at say when the price was say 130, then the price rises to 140, they will want the shares or equivalent money to 140 a share - therefore the shorters will have to find the difference - I thought that is why a short squeeze can happen.

Regards

[pi0110] 24/5/2018 15:06

eeny

Nice narrative but if it was that simple then why would group A give group B such an easy ride? surely group A would go ahead and set up another house (if that were neccessary) and run the scheme themselves. I can't see why group A would allow group B to have this symbiotic advantage.

Or have I read you incorrectly?

[meijiman] 24/5/2018 15:04

What an interesting post. Certainly you get paid for loaning out stock so there are direct costs for Group B. Seems that the days when it was all about the company and its trading prospects in determining the share price are long gone!Folk at IQE must be bemused -don't suppose a whole lot changes month by month and yet they see wild gyrations in the share price

[verger] 24/5/2018 14:49

Thanks eenyweeny. Very interesting. If any market makers are listening, and if they want to offload shares, then I suggest their best bet now is to raise the price rather than lower it. I am sure there is an army of onlookers who are warming to IQE, believe the waiting time is nearly over, and are looking for the signal to buy.

[eenyweeny] 24/5/2018 14:36

Hi folks.

May I put my opinions out there regarding the perceived effects of IQE's notorious shorters.
I think this may help create some new viewpoints regarding any suspected Short Squeeze on IQE.


My main point...
The shorters do NOT need to repurchase the shares they borrowed in order to satisfy the original lender!

Let me explain . . .


Basics
1. There are 757.62 million shares in issue.
The vast bulk of these are held as 'longs' by investment houses such as T Rowe etc. A smaller amount maybe 10% are held by small traders, which are turned over extremely frequently.

2. Let me bundle all the invesment houses together and call them Group A.
3. Let me now bundle the large scale shorters together and call them Group B.


The process
Now assume that Group B have negotiated a loan of 70 million shares (about 10% of total issue) from Group A. I prefer to call these shares as rented rather than loaned.
Group B now sells these shares onto the market. Although small traders pick up a tiny amount the rest are now in the hands of the market makers and stock brokers and Group B now have cash in their hands to the value of say £91m (70m shares x share price at time of sale (avg £1.30)).


Here's my point at last.
Group A are not stupid. They had a thoroughly tight agreement in place with Group B that guarantees that if the shorting plan goes wrong and Group B cannot refund Group A with actual shares then Group B will recompense Group A with cash instead. In this event Group A will then simply enter in their ledger book that they SOLD 70m shares at £1.30.
OK, they now hold less shares than previously announced but equally they now have £91m cash in their pockets. Group A have NOT lost out and Group B have NOT needed to buy back any shares at all.
Therefore no massive short squeeze will materialise.


The outcome
Group B were sat on £91m cash during the 'short' period (they may have moved it about a little to earn some income from it) and they can therefore pay back Group A with cash and without any real struggle.
Group B simply right off the expenses incurred, lick their wounds and try again. They HAVEN'T been screwed by any sudden rise in share price.


There are however a few folk that trade IQE via CFD or Spreadbet accounts. If these people have large scale shorts in place then YES they will easily get screwed by a rising price and will be squeezed out in great pain but fortunately/unfortunately their numbers are small regarding IQE and it will have a minimal affect on the rate of change in the share price.


Conclusion
1. I do NOT expect any massive 'short squeeze' or buying panic. Price will have to rise on it's own, much more normal.

2. I do expect volatility of price simply because the Market Makers are holding large quantaties of IQE shares which they HATE doing. They will shake the price around as much as possible, without breaking any rules you understand, in order to generate trades within which they will hope to offload their overly large float of shares.

3. I predict the period of time the Market Makers need is ending within the next 30 days and whichever direction the prices heads off in will become the primary direction for many months thereafter, with wobbles along the way. We are at decision point on the charts just as much as IQE are at inflection point in their own business. Marvellous.

[sweenoid] 24/5/2018 14:33

A very good article

Seems like WWDC on June 4th will not only see the announcement of the new iPad Pro WITH 3D sensing but also some improvements in its applications.the ‘facial vein’ patent as applied and associated with Face ID is an amazing prospect, basically making fraud impossible , as opposed to virtually impossible



Nice links to Wales Online
S

[paradores] 24/5/2018 14:20

@Solderflux

...intriguing isn't it. I wouldn't read too much into the 'exchanges' currently taking place. I wonder how many of these transactions are of, how should I put it, dubious intent. Some will of course be keen to continue to expose the bid whilst vols are light. But can they do enough? Many will be looking for a second opportunity 'entry' price.

[solderflux] 24/5/2018 14:12

How come buys are more than sells and the price is still coming down? I do understand that price is based on potential buyers and sellers, but surely if there were fewer potential buyers on any day that would result in sells being more than buys. Or is this a case of MMs are up to something?

[paradores] 24/5/2018 14:08

@RegasClockWork

My take is that the shorters (collectively) will need to be far more aggressive than the piecemeal games currently being played out on the bid. They're not freeing up nearly enough stock. Problemo #1.

So...
Q. Where are stop losses (next level down 90-95p?)
Q. Can they get the price there?

How long do they have? What newsflow can be expected in the next 1-2 weeks?

I'll be buying into weakness and continue to believe they somewhat over played their hand last year ;o)

[rivaldo] 24/5/2018 14:01

Good spot mad foetus. I like this summary:

"IQE’s advanced materials are the key enabling technology that are at the heart of many of the chips used in today’s and tomorrow’s electronic products from smartphones to broadband, healthcare to robots and 3D sensing to driverless cars."

[regasclockwork] 24/5/2018 13:50

paradores - 22 May 2018 - 09:22:44 - 17287 of 17335

"Someone wanting to close out? IMVHO the shorters are COMPLETELY the wrong side of this exciting [and not so little] business."

"Best not to short a business at the beginning of its growth phase."

"Looks like there could be a squeeeeze into today's close." -End-

Hi paradores, the share price at close that day was 128p [+3p]. As I write it's down 10p from that to 118p. The volume over the past 3 days has averaged around 3.5m - very low.

If the shorters were panicking and buying back, I would have thought that volumes would have been far higher than this and the share price would have been heading north.

Your thoughts would be very much appreciated.