Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 09/8/2017 12:22

Reminder...



4 x 3.8p = 15.2p

15p EPS x 25 (High growth stock) = Share price of 375p.

[poombear] 09/8/2017 12:20

That's some daily chart

[someuwin] 09/8/2017 11:50

At this rate today's volume could well be higher than yesterday's.

10m+ shares being traded daily now. More than just retail PIs.

[sheep_herder] 09/8/2017 11:49

poom, I didn't model anything, Peel Hunt did.

[richardc77] 09/8/2017 11:29

TW I shouldn't bother explaning any potential pitfalls, because the sun always shines (except when it doesn't).

Anyways if anyone actually reads my posts they'll know i'm very positive and long IQE until I see the likelyhood of any significant earnings tailoff which could be at £2, £3 or £10, in 2018, 2019 or 2025 or whenever sheepy tells me to of course :)

[potential] 09/8/2017 11:28

Breakout --- £1.30 in range

[twatcher] 09/8/2017 11:20

A ramp up of the magnitudes being talked about requires the company to go through a dramatic expansion over a relatively short period.

Executing that type of expansion has been the downfall of manys a good company. It'll need very careful manangement both financial and logistically.

[pal44] 09/8/2017 11:19

mm are controlling this one today ... waiting for a breakout :)

[poombear] 09/8/2017 11:12

Not sure if this has been noted. Probably our biggest competitor II-IV have stated they have picked up initial orders for millions of VCSEL arrays for 3D sensing in their recent earnings transcript.

Just a thought on what market share IQE will get. What did you model in Sheep Herder?

[bocase] 09/8/2017 11:11

Sheep_Herder

Interesting post Sheep_Herder. An EPS of 30p x a PE of 40 + £12 per share. Might be tempted by that.

I agree with your buy and hold strategy and so would Warren Buffet. Let the power of compounding work it's magic. Anyone trying to get rich quick usually gets poor quick.

Short term profits are fine but they exclude compounding. I have 104K shares bought at 19p and I am not selling as I entirely agree with your long-term view of the market.

Having said that, there is nothing wrong with trading. It is quite acceptable to employ both strategies. My 104K are untouchable but I also trade IQE almost on a daily basis, buying the dips and selling the spikes. Tried to buy at 119p early this morning on the market makers mark down but no chance..buyers came straight in which is great to see.

[grabster] 09/8/2017 11:09

Regarding FEVR - I understand the view that, no matter how well they exploit what appears to be a market worth addressing - it is a market 'of the now', which might run a few years. Whereas stocks like IQE are addressing a market that appears to have ongoing growth stretching strongly into a longer timeframe.

[wrongmove] 09/8/2017 11:08

Been reading this BB for some time now; thanks for some great postings. Barring upsets, I am a v. long-term hold.

Haven't seen much comment here about Europe's answer to Lumentum/Finisar (bar the telco focus): AMS AG, used to be called Austrian Microsystems. Another great company to have invested in after the 2008 crash; how much easier it all is with hindsight ! FYI, I am not invested in AMS.

This rather old article hxxp://uk.businessinsider.com/what-you-need-to-know-about-apples-new-3d-camera-2017-2 cites AMS as a potential Apple supplier for 3D sensing.

As some may remember, AMS bought VCSEL maker Princeton Optronics in March. hxxp://www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/2017/03/princeton-optronics-acquired-by-ams-to-enhance-3d-sensing-ar-vr-and-automotive-applications.html. A 37-person company with $10m in revenue, giving a potential earn out of $75m; those are good numbers! Nothing to be concerned about valuation-wise for IQE IMHO.

A little more fuel to the optical sensing frenzy:

Premstaetten, Austria (24 July 2017) - ams (SIX: AMS), a leading worldwide supplier of high-performance performance sensor solutions, reports second quarter and first half 2017 results with revenues above the previous guidance range despite a negative EUR/USD trend. ams increases its revenue growth target for 2016-2019 to more than 40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and confirms its adjusted EBIT margin target of 30% from 2019 onwards. ams expects strong quarter-on-quarter growth with third quarter revenues of EUR 260-290 million reflecting the ramp-up nature of the quarter in ams’ consumer business and currency headwinds, together with an adjusted EBIT margin of above 10%. Driven by ongoing optical solutions ramps, ams expects a record second half 2017 including substantial sequential revenue growth for the fourth quarter at an expected growth rate comparable to the expected growth rate from second quarter to third quarter, based on currently available information. ams has also decided to pull forward an investment into Vertical Cavity Surface-Emitting Laser (VCSEL) manufacturing capacity in order to pursue significant business opportunities.


One to track from time to time. All IMO and DYOR.

[scamper] 09/8/2017 10:58

Interestingly, charts are read differently, in my reading, I see a breakout of 115....a resumption of the trend after stepping out of the 10 day moving average, hence i added there.

[sheep_herder] 09/8/2017 10:46

You're welcome to your view, and I'm welcome to think you're nuts. :-) For example, it's hardly blindly signing up for 5+ years when you can clearly see the markets that IQE are attacking aren't even going to get started for that period. 5-8 years away is when the big growth phase will kick in. So unless they get taken out on the cheap....

I think the main issue people have is understanding the tech and understanding the time frames involved. I held ARM from £1.90 to the take out and would have held longer. I knew at the start of that purchase that the markets would do nothing but grow over my lifetime and was happy to hold long term. The same is true of IQE although I think they're actually in a better position than ARM.

If I look at a 5 year time frame I see:
- the VCSEL market for phones ramping quickly. Could be 15p EPS by 2019, with saturation of high/mid-end phones by 2020.
- other markets coming online from 2018. Non-phone consumer goods. Another 5p EPS for laptops/tablets/other?
- 5G is going to double to quadruple the RF content so expect another 2-4p EPS by 2020. I've got no real idea how big the PA market is for base stations but call it 1p EPS.
- the optical interconnect market will continue to grow and could explode given the predictions for data generation. By 2022 that could be a large portion.
- then add on GaN power switching in a $22B market
- then solar, etc, etc.

So in that 5 year timeframe, we're still in the infancy of that ramp up which is why I think a long term buy/hold strategy is good. Once that curve changes from exponential to linear, that might be the time to evaluate the future growth potential and see if there is anything else more exciting, but by that time I'd expect to see 30p+ EPS being hit.

[volsung] 09/8/2017 10:46

Chartwise its blue sky to 137p

[scamper] 09/8/2017 10:37

Added a little ;) ahead of presentation

[richardc77] 09/8/2017 10:25

SH, seeing as I haven't committed to anything I'm baffled by why you think I'm nuts. If at any point anyone (including me) said they'd sell £10 notes for £1.75, then I'd agree with you that they were mad ;) However I suspect Sweenoid doesn't need to be taught any tricks on investing and taking profits, and neither do I, especially by someone suggesting they blindly sign up for 5-8 years in any company. £10 might come to pass, and I may still be here, but not without checking and weighing up that probability each step of the way first. I take zero for granted in anything in life and have often found when anything becomes too easy in investing to the point where the uniformed think making money is easy, without giving it much thought, something normally proves them wrong down the line. I'd be very happy for this to turn into ISA millions instead of hundreds of thousands but i'm very happy with the original £41k investment, but i'm also lucky that it's not financially critical to me.

Still, let's not go back and forth forever like often happens on BB's as I don't want to waste breath on it :)

(Ps that's my last breath on this, so you're welcome to come back and have the last word ;))

[semper vigilans] 09/8/2017 10:16

Great deal if the tenners were forged!
( not comparing IQE to a dodgy tenner)

[sheep_herder] 09/8/2017 10:08

rich, I still think you're nuts. :-) And sweenoid has updated his sell price at every interval on the way up. But then he seems to have so many shares that he probably doesn't need to hold on for a fiver. My timeline is 10+ years as most is in my pension and I don't need that for 20+ years.

Why anyone would sell £10 notes for £1.75, I have no idea.

[aimingupward2] 09/8/2017 10:07

Re FEVR, sweenoid, the 'dark spirits' market (rum, whiskey), worldwide, is said to be around 10 times that of the gin mkt, so FEVR have plenty to go at.

[richardc77] 09/8/2017 10:00

Don't say 175p Sweenoid or else SH will tell you off for selling too cheaply and not committing to 5-8 yrs! Only teasing SH ;)

[lurki0] 09/8/2017 09:55

richardc77 - you nailed it.

Always interesting to whose share price holds firm - or indeed prospers - when the tide retreats a bit.