Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[monkeymagic3] 28/3/2014 11:52

Scrutable - I love you.

[freshvoice] 28/3/2014 11:40

I hope the thing that gives SG hope and that he thinks TW has ignored is not a mirage.

The graph over the past year looks very like VIY did last year and TW called that right in spite of a well orchestrated optimistic set of posters.

I hope he is wrong on this one.

[testuser123] 28/3/2014 11:30

We even get an honourable mention in this year's USGS (out a few days back).



Admittedly it's only the phrase "and one company in Montana", but it's a start.

[superg1] 28/3/2014 11:29

Re TW

They keep going on about a PRG bid and have for months. I totally agree with his view but choose not to hold or buy any, some will some won't.

The charts for that look like there is no indication of what he says, such matters can grind on for months or years. He will know whether he trusts his digging or not.

Sometimes charts demonstrate the knowns and unknowns. sometimes not. So if PRG did get a near term bid, the chart as it stands seems to indicate for some time it isn't happening.

My point being there is no reference to known unknowns re IOF, so I assume for now he is oblivious.

Such matters like on PRG may or may not happen, but wholeheartedly agree that I suspect the 'may' is real, but then they can turn on a sixpence.

[superg1] 28/3/2014 11:26

Re TW

They keep going on about a PRG bid and have for months. I totally agree with his view but choose not to hold or buy any, some will some won't.

The charts for that look like there is no indication of what he says, such matters can grind on for months or years. He will know whether he trusts his digging or not.

Sometimes charts demonstrate the knowns and unknowns. sometimes not. So if PRG did get a near term bid, the chart as it stands seems to indicate for some time it isn't happening.

My point being there is no reference to known unknowns re IOF, so I assume for now he is oblivious.

Such matters like on PRG may or may not happen, but wholeheartedly agree that I suspect the 'may' is real, but then they can turn on a sixpence.

[bobsworth] 28/3/2014 11:16

che good summary. With production climbing to 1200MT lets hope they use some of it to further increase their chemical derivatives output. I wonder if a 2 shift day is fast approaching.

[scrutable] 28/3/2014 11:10

ricky rich briilliant post. Accurate and to the point.

monkey magic

not many lessons to draw from the ASOS comparison you suggest we make, except that collapse of the share price does not automatically indicate that the underlying company isdoing the same. The ASOS share price also had spectacular collapses:from 92p to 42p over 6 months during 2004/5; from 406p to 201p over 2 months in Autumn 2008; from £24 to £11.24p. over 6 months during H2 2011 - more than 50% on three occasions during relentless growth of the company- still with hindsight the best UK share investment of the decade.

IOF despite superficial impressions is also growing at an impressive rate, masked by background 'noise' like icy weather in the early part of two successive years. Gross margin will have more than doubled and redoubled two years running (2012 and 2013).Zero plants one year, one the next, three the year after, and currently 6-8 expected by end 2014. That is outstanding despite over anticipation in the share price followed by excessive pessimism.

IOF share price again reflects the accepted wisdom that share price price over and under reaches itself repeatedly. That's because it reflects the second order derivative of the performance chart and not the first order. For those who have stuck to the Arts and missed out on the Sciences, this means that the share price does not reflect absolute position or velocity of company progress but acceleration and deceleration.

IOF as a business has been performing well over the long term view, but has done it 'lumpily' as new plants 'stagger' to the commissioning date. And H2 2014 looks like reflecting more of the same.

Perhaps this time, the intermittency has been subconsciously anticipated. If I had the cash I would be buying IOF strongly now. Notice that I have not ever said this on the way down from one false bottom to the next. I have lost the whole of my portfolio by not having enough liquid cash when grossly over geared. Luckily the majority of my assets are tied up in property and later this year I shall be back buying in the share market somewhat wiser

However heart-breakingly unlikely it seems to all who have lost out in the past 10 months IOF still looks more than ever to be a strong growth company - now substantially de-risked and seemingly set to redouble gross margin again this year. The FY figures will be more illuminating than in previous years and may disclose- by subtracting H1 2013 from FY 13 and comparing with H2 12, what margins were added to Op profit by bringing IO#2 and and IO#3 on line fully during H2 13. That will enable us to make better grounded forecasts than we have had to accept until now.

[che7win] 28/3/2014 10:48

superg,
a recent Indmin article stated that prices were unsustainable below $50, that is Chile's pain point right now.

They no doubt have inventories that they have sold down which will have exacerbated falls in the market.

This year they will feel the pain kicking in as long term contracts come around for renewal. If any of them try to renew a long term contract below $50, they will be mining at a loss or at the very least wafer thin margins with no room for capex.
That against higher costs and inflation, water shortages and rising electricity costs.

The Chileans need margins to continually move from exhausted resource to new areas. We don't - the oil companies do that job for us, once our plants are built our capex is finished for each plant (apart from maintenance).

IOF model is proven. First quarter production if it's anywhere around 50 MT or higher just about keeps us on track for 700-1000 MT. I will be happy with that.

I was told that the first 6 plants only were needed to reach that 700MT-1000MT forecast and new builds (7-9) for second half would not register in this years production.

Around 30% production was in their plans first half and 70% for H2.

We are moving into the Spring and Summer months which provide the highest iodine production for IOF.

The first three plants are more or less needed for Chemical consumption, after that we have excess iodine to sell.

They have a bit of tweaking to do, but remember that costs will improve with more plants and synergies between staff.

If plant 6 is on plant 2's land, then no lease expenses, shared staff etc. Each plant only needs a couple of staff anyway, low overheads with improved automation.

We should have a couple of mobile unit producing late second half so growth continues.

We can make 5-6p EPS this year, even if we stop all roll out after 8 units (6 full plants and 2 mobile), then next year we are on track for 70% growth in iodine production as below:

This year: 700MT (only 6 plants fully operational in H2)
Next year: 1200MT (6 plants + 2 mobile units fully operational 12 months).

That increase in output is 70% regardless of the review outcome.

Next year assumes no more plants or mobile units - I doubt that will be the case.
We should have a stronger iodine price and a growing Chemical division.

At this price, pessimism abounds, some of it justified, but there can't be too many sellers left.

PS: any other good news such as water isn't priced in.

[roundup] 28/3/2014 10:15

roundup - 28 Mar 2014 - 10:09 - 17727 of 17727 - 0Couldn't resist taking another nibble this morning. After all they want to hand out shares for a fraction of their value why not take them.

[roundup] 28/3/2014 10:09

Couldn't resist taking another nibble this morning. After if they want to hand out shares for

[superg1] 28/3/2014 10:06

Chile peso starting to turn, don't know if it will be sustained but higher copper prices will help.

Long term stuff there but if it strengthens over the year it eats into their margins on the low cost battle.
IOF certainly haven't disrupted the supply level.

MM3 great post re no news, been chuckling all morning re that one. Life is too short.

I'm long term like a few others, and I'm not ignoring the fact that 60% of the world supply comes form a country suffering higher costs, riots, protests, strikes, rapidly rising costs, sea water need, fresh water issues, power demand issues. Fresh water rules likely to force high capex spend and opex increases, very rare commercial resources, SQM dropped off 3000mt due to high cost depleted certain mines etc etc etc.

Algorta are new, so are others, I assume they have gone for the higher graded areas first.

I hear one finds the neighbours caliche is higher so is nicking it under their noses.

No doubt Cos have increased along with Bullmine and Algorta, but the margins look like they will be very tight v H1 Algorta profits reports.

Waiting for any details re those, but I can't see how they have filled the void coming re Sirocco production drop, SQM, drop and 2 years of increased demand.

So somewhere down the line this year it all has to balance out. They have done the aggressive customer nicking bit and the price dropped to levels some can't make any money on, or are loss making.

[testuser123] 28/3/2014 09:40

After the events of the last 8 months I must admit to wondering if anything can go right for this company, but at least the macro headwinds look to be starting to turn in our favour. Assuming this trend continues we should see Iodine prices start to firm over the course of the next few months.

hxxp://santiagotimes.cl/week-business-protest-hit-mine-restarts-energy-prices-surge/

Highlights:
Power costs up 40% MoM, 12% YoY
Copper prices bouncing off four year low on expectations of Chinese QE
Interest rates flat at 4%
Inflation up 0.7% MoM

[alphacharlie] 28/3/2014 09:36

superg1 28 Mar'14 - 08:46 - 17714 of 17723

amazing the amount of times 'they' create new profiles to post.

post 17711 the latest.

TW thinks dilution and bail out. No

TW has missed something important, he has spotted it elsewhere and feels free to go on about it on another share, but needs to look further to the right with this one.


So what has Winni missed out please?

[volsung] 28/3/2014 09:21

I predict a riot

[alphacharlie] 28/3/2014 09:20

I predict an IOF/FUM cross-over next week.

[volsung] 28/3/2014 09:16

That chart looks like a mountain in the himalayas. An interesting if somewhat rigorous trek

[bogg1e] 28/3/2014 09:15

momentum is flattening out after dropping off, whilst the rsi is now at 20. Hopefully a reversal is on the cards soon. Fair play to Netley and Shonny though. They called it right.

[knackers] 28/3/2014 09:12

Drop exacerbated by losses being realised ahead of the end of tax year.

[roundup] 28/3/2014 09:11

Good move roger

[rogerbridge] 28/3/2014 09:09

I was going to hold on before buying some for next years ISA, but have sold another holding and bought more IOF. it was too good an opportunity to miss. Fingers crossed.

[tsmith2] 28/3/2014 09:00

in, fall overdone

[jbe81] 28/3/2014 08:55

very little volume for the fall, price will be back over 70p by mid week next week imo

[superg1] 28/3/2014 08:46

amazing the amount of times 'they' create new profiles to post.

post 17711 the latest.

TW thinks dilution and bail out. No

TW has missed something important, he has spotted it elsewhere and feels free to go on about it on another share, but needs to look further to the right with this one.

[orslega] 28/3/2014 08:43

on subject of patents - reminder from last August RNS when the patent was awarded for the US:

"The issued patent was originally filed in the United States and has been also filed in Chile and Japan shortly thereafter."

hxxp://www.iofina.com/perch/resources/2aug2013-patent-awarded.pdf


So IOF are covering competitors in key territories (when the competition opex is too expensive to make it viable). How ironic that would be, IOF licensing its technology to the Chilean/Japanese majors. Realistically though, that almost certainly would not happen, more like full takeout of IOF.

Consolidation time now, get house in order etc.

(Iofina previously needed to buy iodine from Chile - boot on other foot in 2-3 years time...a possibility..)

[ammons] 28/3/2014 08:38

RB Energy, new company which took over Sirocco, release results on 31 March, Monday.