Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[karmastuartra] 30/3/2014 09:48

Nice mark up Monday,shows over folks,need any fertiliser for them roses?
Check out the other thread,full of it!

[bobsworth] 29/3/2014 23:11

naphar
Appreciate your thoughts on the latest situation. With the funding issue now laid to rest I am hoping that any positive news from now on will start to be reflected in the share price. The only concern I have now is how the market will react to the 2013 results. I am hoping the expected flat results will be offset by the Q1 production data released at the same time. Fingers crossed they will confirm Iofina'a potential with 6 plants in or near production. I realise after 9 months of disappointment and falling share price its going to take a while to rebuild investors confidence. I think securing the water permit and increasing quarterly output data will do wonders for restoring market sentiment. Transparency and a realistic business plan that they can deliver on will be key. Agree also that CF's departure marks an end to the last 9 months and indicates a fresh start.

[superg1] 29/3/2014 22:24

Wells go on for 15 years plus.

SWDs much the same. OK is a web of pipelines to SWDs for each operator, and they will utilise the SWDs to their max capacity as this ensures cost efficiencies.

FRP plants were suggested to have about a 15 year life.

Mobile plants are about targeting very high ppm individual wells.

If you have 1000 to 2000 bpd at the 2000ppm plus rate, far better to deal with it on site than risk a pipeline dilution to naff all in certain circs if lots of other low level ppm wells are nearby diluting it at the SWD.

1k bpd at 2000ppm site becomes 115 ppm at a 30k bpd SWD if the average of the rest is 50 ppm.

Mobiles in theory should be low opex efficient production units. They have said very high wells and hyper ppm, I understand hyper is multi 1000's ppm.

Why handle 10,000 bpd at 200ppm when you can do 500bpd elsewhere at 4000ppm at much lower labour, power and chemical cost. Just an example as there are some very high ppm low bpd wells out there, and no doubt more to come.

[naphar] 29/3/2014 22:04

Well it has been a roller coaster of a ride so far. Despite the falling share price, I am feeling positive about the future here. Of course I can't say we will not drop further, but nor can I rule out the beginnings of a stabilisation period followed by a good news driven rise.

The bears would have me believe that IOF are falling apart, running out of cash now already and about to go bust. That's strange because before they were telling us that we would not have the money to repay the loan in 2015. With the renegotiation of the loan payback period, any cash concern I may have had has now gone (and I was slightly concerned, but felt it was manageable with good cash management). They have a dedicated CFO and I believe he is on top of these matters.

This week's announcement indicates a review of the business, meaning a consolidation period in terms of activity. Capex will be reduced as a result, or, if we get the water permit, Capex previously earmarked for plants may be part diverted to build the water terminal. We just don't know until the company tell us, but IF we get the PDTG prior to results day, I would hope for an update and confirmation of the high level plan with results.

We had all expected IO4&5 to be running in Q1. Although it seems likely they will miss this time line, I am not concerned, it may only be missed by days and the plants are ready to go. Soon there will be 5 plants pumping out iodine and being reviewed to improve efficiency, with IO6 scheduled to come on line in Q2.

For sure delivery, especially in the past 9 months has not been fantastic. Success of the business and reflection of that success in the share price were always going to require delivery. The departure of the chairman indicates, to me at least, that the poor delivery of the past 9 months may be about to change. If it does, it will eventually result in an improvement in sentiment, and the share price will begin to recover. I look forward to that with baited breath.

[freshvoice] 29/3/2014 21:36

Pcjoe
Your point assumes the pipes do not join until SWD, they may have mixed well op before it gets near SWD.

[naphar] 29/3/2014 21:36

PC
ok, I'll bite on the secondary pipe topic. Relatively cheap you say.. but who pays? I know IOF take lots of samples, so they would know if a well has a detrimental impact on the average ppm. But will the operator care for the additional complexity in their process? Perhaps the additional royalty revenue will ensure they care but I don't know if the difference would be big enough.

[phsycho] 29/3/2014 20:44

Crosseyed..Cyfran

It makes sense to me that the announced review will include performance and efficiency and decide the future investment priorities , which must weigh up in some form the balance of mobile plants against fixed plants in the near term.

No biggie , just sensible management.

[pcjoe] 29/3/2014 20:31

Banged on about it a few times elsewhwhere but SWDs are serviced by several wells - If due to fracking etc, one of these wells is disrupting the co-mingled brine waste flow ( our feed stream) & another well is producing almost zilch PPM - Then both well brine streams should be isolated from the main flow - fed into a secondary pipe & only rejoin the main flow prior to disappearing down the SWD

No reason on earth for IO plant having to put up with that problem - Easily & relatively cheaply fixed

[che7win] 29/3/2014 20:15

Crosseyed,
Exactly, estimates are subject to change!

Interesting post 17799, cheers.

[crosseyed] 29/3/2014 20:02

che7win,

Thanks for your figures, and of course I acknowledge that they are your estimates given current information. As Keynes might have said, if the facts change then so might your estimates!

The figures you propose are close to those indicated by my model.

Many thanks for your reply,

c

[crosseyed] 29/3/2014 19:53

cyfran101,

Having followed the Texas Eagle Ford developments as an investor for the past 8 years and learnt a little about shale wells in that period, it is clear that new wells are being drilled at a dramatically increasing rate. Equally important, the density of drilling (well/acre) is increasing as the economic advantages of infill drilling are recognised. That applies also in Oklahoma where IOF's plants are focused. Thus, the rapid decline rates, whether or not they affect the quantity of brine produced in the process, is more than offset by the drilling density (and bear in mind that these wells are very long-term producers, perhaps 20-30 years). Therefore, IOF's strategy of fixed plants in such areas is certainly not unreasonable. Perhaps that is the result of their own research!

My own comments above regarding the Mini IoSorb units were really to query the throughput quantities (ppm and brine bbls/day) as compared with the fixed plants. I rather suspect that the fixed units will turn out to be rather good (as hopefully will the Mini units). It would be nice to have some confirmation of actual production quantities, even, or perhaps especially, if qualified by reasons for non-optimal performance.

c

[che7win] 29/3/2014 19:30

Crosseyed,
Io2 currently is around a 200-300MT plant, but it has so much more potential, it was doing 1MT on its own last summer over a month.
If brine supply and temperatures the same as last summer, 1.5mt per day possible from it but ignore that, 250mt run rate over year is realistic for now.

The other plant outputs, those are around ballpark figures I would use.

There are lots of variables, for instance the ppms. One of the plants being rolled out is reckoned to be on high ppm.

Other variables, the plants produce more in spring and summer months for instance.

I'm looking for around 700-750MT this year; I'm pencilling in 50MT for the first quarter with io3 getting up to speed and the severe weather.

Here are my thoughts:

On plants 1-3:
Q1: 50MT
Q2: daily run rate 1.2 MT: 108MT per quarter.
Q3: 108 MT
Q4: 108 MT
--------------
Total: 374MT

Plants 4-6, one of them is high ppm:
Q2: one month for 4 and 5 at combined 1 MT per day: 30 MT
Q3: three plants at 1.5 MT = 135 MT
Q4: three plants 135 MT
-----------------
Total: 300 MT

Add in a couple of mobile units in the second half and we get to above 700MT.

I expect a 30/70% split between H1 and H2.

From above,
First half rough 200 MT.
second half rough 494 MT.

I ignore recycling, that would be on top.

Don't hold me to those figures, they are my analysis.

[cyfran101] 29/3/2014 19:05

Physcho.

That's the point I was veering towards in my earlier post 17780.

Maybe due to those points earlier they are realising that the depletion rates on wells are quicker than expected and therefore a static plant solution, even though it serves several wells, is not appropriate.

Maybe they want to go down the mobile unit route more or at least a larger plant that is quicker to move to a new location?

[ammons] 29/3/2014 17:01

We have had no update from the company about how the disruption at IO3 has affected overall iodine production at that plant yet. The company was "looking forward" to providing an update but they haven't. The 29 January RNS mentioned it but nothing since then. The coming full year results will provide the update I presume.

[phsycho] 29/3/2014 16:47

Why bother with the big plants!


Crosseyed, maybe that is part of the reason for the recently announced review.

[crosseyed] 29/3/2014 16:42

che7win/Bogg1e,

Why bother with the big plants!

What do you see as monthly production for IO#2 and IO#3-IO#6 (each)?
I have pencilled in 21 mT/mth for IO#2 and 14 mT/mth for IO#3-6 each for now though those figures are ultra-conservative given the lack of hard data.

However, those numbers, assuming IO#3 rates for IO#4-6 and adding in 5mT/mth for re-processed iodine, give me about 850 mT for 2014 plus whatever the Minis might produce.

c

[bogg1e] 29/3/2014 16:15

Mini plants/pods are designed to deal with 3k-8k bpd and up to 5k ppms. I think its wishful thinking to assume we shall have both 8k bpd and 5k ppm in one site! Nice thought though; 15 x the ppm of IO2 at 25% of IO2s throughput means one mini can produce as much as 4 IO2s!!! sweet.

[che7win] 29/3/2014 15:29

It's from the horses mouth, so true, I nearly choked when I heard it.

[crosseyed] 29/3/2014 15:00

che7win, Thanks. 5000ppm would be very nice ;}

[che7win] 29/3/2014 12:49

Crosseyed,
One of the sites I know for a fact is 5000 ppm, no idea of volume.