Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 26/3/2014 10:26

Bobsworth,

With the other iodine producers experiencing slowdown and stagnant profits, they sit at a P/E of 15 and unable to provide shareholder value without a stronger iodine price.

A bit if pain in the short term for us, we could have had more cashflow to roll out faster, but the key is we continue to grow.

They still do deserve a high rating because iodine is scarce, they have a high margin business.

A P/E of 15 for us is 75p this year, 150p next year, as long as iodine stabilises or slowly rises from here.

What an opportunity today, wish I could load up, don't miss it IMHO. Once the shorters break ranks, movements will be fast.

[wizard2020] 26/3/2014 10:26

337000 just through as a sell Bobsworth if a drop from 150 to the 50's is a wobble what is a plummet?

[testuser123] 26/3/2014 10:24

I've got to say I'm in complete agreement with Che7win. Yes things have longer (a lot longer) than anyone was ever expecting, but they are now happening. The company are now producing sufficient Iodine to not only cover their internal needs, but they have also started external sales.

We don't know this from nods or winks (or even pings), we know it because the company specifically said so with absolutely no room for misinterpritation in the January update. This is the point which everyone was waiting for and now we've reached it people are selling. Bizarre.

I've got to say I was somewhat dismissive of Enismore, but at the end of the day in the last week they've engineered 2 million sales on the back of about 9 grand's worth of shares shorted. Well, fair enough lads, that's nothing if not impressive.

Personally I'm in the process of drying some powder, with a view to spending the next few weeks buying while people are fearful.

[bobsworth] 26/3/2014 10:12

Che
Thanks for the informative posts this morning which is very reassuring. Lets hope Iofina can reassure the market soon and put an end to this big wobble.

[frog1] 26/3/2014 09:39

Che

I hope you are right.

[masurenguy] 26/3/2014 09:36

saltheart foamfollower - 17475: Where is SCRUTABLE? Wasn't this the next ASOS? He gave out a lot of wisdom when it was going up I'm wondering what his thoughts are now?

I believe that he was one of the people who lost his shirt on Meldex a few years ago ? Where IOF is concerned the most recent view he expressed on the prospects here was nearly 3 months ago.

SCRUTABLE 2 Jan'14 - 14308: Subject only to a second Black Swan event like being struck twice by lightning, I suggest that from the whole LSE it has the highest probability in favour of quadrupling its share price before end 2015, particularly at the current price. By the next AGM mid June we will know much more, have even greater certainty, and will I am confident already be back at close to its previous high. That of course is only my opinion but I would be surprised if many others had not already reached the same.

The IOF price then was circa 95p and now it is down another 40% at 55p ! A long way to go to reach it's previous high of 245p by June or circa 380p by the end of next year but then nothing is impossible !

[qprjohn121] 26/3/2014 09:35

Well done ch7win and Microline a bargain and a significant opportunity here for multiplying your investment over the medium term (and maybe in the short term too). Many will be joining you soon as the share price turns the corner and starts to reflect how much further forward IOF is compared to the last time it was at this level.

[che7win] 26/3/2014 09:26

Frog,
Just to be clear, I spent 20 minutes speaking directly to the finance director about the figures, going through the broker notes, discussing revenue, earnings per share forecasts etc.

I am comfortable with 5p-6p EPS this year, next year is harder to predict but the brokers were looking for around 11p EPS.

It makes this price a bargain in my view.

Even a poor set if Q1 figures are all in the price, if they do 80MT then the price will rise sharply, I expect 100MT would set the share upwards quickly.

By quickly, I mean like SPL - it's share was doing the same as here, overswung but very quickly jumped. SPL chart similar to here, it went from 55p to 85p in a few days. That's all sentiment driven, as is here.

[microcline] 26/3/2014 09:20

Good on you Che7win. Helped myself to 23616 myself.

[microcline] 26/3/2014 09:15

Andy, surely a lot of shareholders [or should I say insider traders] would have sold up by now.

[che7win] 26/3/2014 09:12

The 21816 purchase is mine, bargain :-)

[saltheart foamfollower] 26/3/2014 09:11

Where is SCRUTABLE? Wasn't this the next ASOS?
He gave out a lot of wisdom when it was going up I'm wondering what his thoughts are now?

[andy] 26/3/2014 09:11

microline,

Anyone in the know would surely keep it to themselves until they have sold themselves, or opened a short?

Not normally good news in the offing when a share price drops like this.

[microcline] 26/3/2014 09:02

Ammons. That's twice now you have alluded to leaks into the market. With the amount of investors selling you would have thought some kind sole would let the rest of us into the secret. Or is it a well-kept secret known only to members of the lodge?

[che7win] 26/3/2014 09:01

Frog,
That's my point, IOF historically haven't released cash status, I don't see them doing so as they can roll out and finalise capex spend based on cash flow.

[frog1] 26/3/2014 08:51

Che

This subject came about because people are writing to the company for an update. An update will not help if it hides more info than it gives which is what their updates tend to do. Even you have complained about the info presented. It is not the number of sites that will cause the share price to stop falling although that may give a bounce. It is clarification of production, revenue and finance. Giving a plant roll out plan and just stating that plan can be financed from cash flow and existing clash is not stating their cash position. Small oil companies do this when they make discoveries or hire oil rigs.

At the moment this share is falling 5-10% a day. It is down 30% in a few days. The chairman has resigned with no notice and for no apparent reason and so the market thinks something is amiss and clearly does not believe your revenue projections. I remember Marconi when its share price was plummeting and suddenly they had to restate their balance sheet resulting in calls for legal action against the board. So at the quarterly update, just a statement of the planned roll out and that it can be funded would do wonders. More stuff about unoptimised sites with no numbers will cause more harm than good.

[ammons] 26/3/2014 08:49

A fall of this size in just a few days must be bad news known to the market. That is what happened last time (delays) and likely to be the same now.

[rogerbridge] 26/3/2014 08:46

When we have info on IO4 & IO5 and names of new board members it will help.We overshot on the way up and have overshot on the way down as is usual with small cap shares.
The non core water may be subject of a JV or could be sold off.However with the recent board announcement IOF may be changing their minds and it could become core .
I have a coupe of shares that have dropped sharply after a good run up. The nature of markets have changed with much more volatility around and we need to get use to it, or move out of the stockmarket. Many investors are guilty of encouraging volatility me for one by holding absolute return funds.The managers have to take bets, or positions or loose investors with below par returns.. For every winner there is a looser, but this can reverse very quickly. I expect this to happen with IOF and at these prices I have earmarked some funds for next years ISA

[hiddendepths] 26/3/2014 08:29

Obviously it's been actively shorted. Equally obviously the shorts will have to be closed. Tempted to pick up a few more down here. Looking for a high volume day where the shares start down but close the day up. Thor's Hammer.

[bob alan] 26/3/2014 08:26

Converable bond extension ,,to me confirms future confidence.

[owenga] 26/3/2014 08:20

4 days ago this share hit 80p intraday. Nothing has changed since, apart from prolonged silence from the company. Only speculation! We will just have to wait for the next few RNSs which should clarify things re water, IO#4 and io#5 progress, and maybe clarification on funding requirements. I'm sitting tight until then, however painful it may be.

[microcline] 26/3/2014 08:17

Simples. The fall in the IOF share price is shareholders panic selling on leaked news of an RNS announcing that all IO# plants to be swamped under acre-feet's of water!

[1madmarky] 26/3/2014 08:16

Thanks che7win - pretty much states what we are expecting, 50% margin for IOC. Plus steady production.