Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[noujay] 26/3/2014 21:19

Can anybody give an indication of the current iodine price?

[naphar] 26/3/2014 20:56

Quite possible in my view Meadow. I guess we will find out in due course.

[meadow2] 26/3/2014 20:35

Is it at all possible that this week's bear action on the share price has been to enable 'shorters' to close their positions before the flow of good news to come will make it far less profitable for them in the near future?

[superg1] 26/3/2014 19:05

Serratia

The only question is the brine disruption which we know of for io2 and 3.

I ignore io1 as it is and will always be a small insignificant plant.

I have no idea re the recycling if that still goes on, that will be a higher opex, the last guidance we got was around 5 mt per month, but it is sporadic due to the nature of the supply of the product to be recycled.

They never include it as part of production updates as they link it to the chem div side as that's where recycling is done.

So it depends on just how much disruption they experienced through the continued heavy drilling in the area. OK being a high water cut area it appears to be of sufficient quality to re-use in fracking, that is what disrupts brine flows imo to swds.

IO4 and 5 haven't been contributing.

So we all wait for the day that brine flows settle down, and IOF can get into a steady flows of undisrupted brine at each site. It will happen we just don't know when, and then we can properly assess through solid brine supply and up times, exactly what each plant will do.

While that sorts itself out, the chem div leads the way on revenues.

The full affect of costs will take some time to filter through, as no doubt they have excess staff for daily operations currently waiting for io4/5 to come on line soon, then io6 later in H1.

That's the trouble with growth the final opex isn't really known until the growth stops.

I half want it to all stop, get the first 6 tweaked on steady flows and production, to see exactly where we are re opex and cashflows etc etc.

Chasing high brine volume areas, on the tails of the drilling locations seems to carry the disruption problem while the drilling is executed. No need to go nuts while the price is low, Chile have their own problems.

May be that's why pods are so attractive at the high ppm sites, as it would seem they intercept brine at near the well head, before it hits any pipelines. The chemistry of the brine should be more or less stable too, which is no doubt a factor IOF have to deal with while new wells pop up all over the place and add to the SWD pot.

[naphar] 26/3/2014 18:59

Serratia,
That backs up a rough analysis I did earlier this year when the Numis note came out. I don't think there is likely to be an issue, but with the planned 2014 Capex, repaying the loan and having enough cash at bank for unforeseen issues, delays, price falls etc may have been tight. With the delay in loan note repayment, I think the risk is gone, but would love to get that confirmed by IOF themselves.

[woodpeckers] 26/3/2014 18:51

Sounds like you know your stuff serratia. Thanks for that!

[serratia] 26/3/2014 18:42

I've looked further into the cash position. In the news release last year they said that EBT would be the same in 2013 as 2012 with a drop in revenue due to sales being held over into 2014. This fits as the drop in sales would be compensated by lower iodine costs from their own production. So sales down margins up.
Cash flow pre working capital changes and cap ex was roughly breakeven allowing for depreciation and amortisation in 2012. Cash flow in 2013 will differ on a couple of areas. Cap ex and working capital.
Working capital is made up of receivables, payables and stock changes.
Receivables were 95 days sales in 2012 (a cash negative until they're paid). By the half year this had fallen to 54 days. I would expect maybe 40 days as more normal. If they achieve this they would gain around $3m positive cash flow.
Stock levels have increased due to order delays. They rose from 42 days in 2012 to 64 days at the half year and I assume would have risen further, let's say 90 days at year end. I estimate this would be negative on cash flow to around $1.5m. I'm taking payables to be low in comparison as they've increased internal production.
Putting these together working capital should not change significantly. That leaves cap ex. Others have put costs on the units and I don't have an estimate to hand.
At the half year they had $16m cash in the bank. The cap ex in H2 would be nowhere near that so as I see it cash at year end shouldn't be an issue.
Moving into 2014 the late orders should be in, iodine output higher so I can't see a cash flow issue.
Quite happy if someone has other evidence to contradict me, please say.

[nellyb] 26/3/2014 17:59

feel quite sorry for him if thats true.

[neddo] 26/3/2014 17:57

shonny is a talker , never shorted in his life , just likes a little attention, just had a lucky guess to annoy people?

[che7win] 26/3/2014 16:25

Alpha,
Shonny is long, it's was an obvious trade.

He has been fortunate, the company is starting to get into its stride, expect further recovery from here tomorrow, the unjustified panic has passed.

Markets look to the future, not the past and our future is very bright, six plants soon in operation for the current three, the markets will soon catch on.

Plenty panicked out by the shorters, but they will no doubt be buying back in the coming days and weeks.

[alphacharlie] 26/3/2014 16:19

What a crazy crazy three days but at least Shonny's probably gone and it looks like a blue finish.

[che7win] 26/3/2014 16:05

Not surprised supply is tight, exciting times ahead here.

A storming performance from the Chemicals division, 6 plants imminent, water news expected shortly.

I'm looking forward to the pipeline.

[writz] 26/3/2014 15:38

Supply is very tight. Right now Selftrade is offering to buy 50K but only sell 3K - so the indication is a buy order. It was the same this morning.

[freshvoicem] 26/3/2014 15:08

Realrise or dead cat?

[kirk2] 26/3/2014 14:39

123k late buy reported from 10.58, this is the start of a huge push north, fasten your seat belts.

[freshvoicem] 26/3/2014 14:27

Looking at price since the three 300k 'sales' at 10.25 could be buys?

[1madmarky] 26/3/2014 13:54

Go on thor use ya hammer! ;-)

[kirk2] 26/3/2014 13:34

very hard to buy any vol online, it is like a coiled spring

[uriney] 26/3/2014 13:31

Into auction we go in the opposite direction today, its amazing the MC has swung 37m from intraday high to low in 3 trading days, what a roller coaster!

Uriney

[kirk2] 26/3/2014 13:06

realisation of huge value here at these levels, plus shorts about to be caught in a huge squeeze the perfect storm is upon us.

[superg1] 26/3/2014 13:02

Hey pab

I think Share P have PRG spot on but I don't hold any, I'll just watch it happen, thought that before they did.

We'll see.

Not even going to bother reading that link.

Looks as though some margins were taken out today, and those absent this morning and on lunch will have missed the chaos.

[bryproj] 26/3/2014 12:52

Well for what its worth my info told me that IOF hadnt touched the 15m in Sept last year.

[qprjohn121] 26/3/2014 12:43

pabloiom 26 Mar'14 - 12:32 - 17509 of 17511 0 0

A quick check on the rest of pabloiom's posts - a serial peddler of shareprophets drivel - ignore