Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 25/8/2013 09:08

Soggy

I am not in the dark re who on that subject, some bits are GLADy known.

Anyway moving on-:

I saw the $20m per plant comment and thought whoaaah as IOF may have some plants of that nature but not all will be like that.

It does look like a big number and has been mentioned before hence the wooooah bit.

But then a quick look at production May of .85 for 1 and 2, and based on the SQM low bulk rate of $55 per kg it's $17 mill.

That is io1 and 2 but we know one is on low bpd and low ppm in Texas with io2 around 60% capacity.

So the figure isn't as daft as it sounds for plants at decent sites. It works out to be around a plant producing 360mt to get that figure.


For 30k units, it would need an average ppm across the range of around 235ppm., which judging by comments made by IOF, and facts found shouldn't be a problem.

[soggy] 25/8/2013 08:18

I agree Librarian, the total of all those SBs etc would be considerable. What I'm querying is that taking them out was what was behind such a bear raid. Far more likely that some big hitters with big money decided to do exactly what we call it, a bear raid. The taking out of SB margins was collateral damage, not the primary objective, which is what I understood some to be suggesting.

But as you say, it's over. Some of us had just bought another tranche at the heights of the share price and now sit looking at a substantial paper loss on that tranche. But, hey, it's IOF - the good times will roll, and when they do, we all expect it to be quite some roll!

PS - Scrutable, there are those of us who simply love you to bits! Keep posting. We love your enthusiasm, and your linguaphilia! Genuine commiserations on your wipe out and commendations on your resolve. Dunkirk spirit! But keep posting...

[the librarian] 25/8/2013 08:03

I don't know Soggy, but if you can explain it any other way then I am all ears.. I suspect it was more than a few thousand quid... much more, but that's enough of that, it's been and gone and everyone is aware of what can happen.

Edit: Thank you Soggy for confirming that margins are visible to the industry that should be an important factor to be aware of when taking out s/b's.

[soggy] 25/8/2013 07:50

Can I add in a comment re margins, bear raids, MMs and SB companies. While it is true that margins are visible to the industry, as are the dates of T-trades to MMs, the idea that an entire industry would collude to move a share price by 50% or whatever just to take out some PIs - even the total accumulation of their positions - is pretty hard to imagine.

Every one of those companies is in competition with each other - for your business. Every MM is in cut-throat competition with the others and they make their money on every trade, up or down, it matters not to them.

While I'm not saying that there aren't movers and shakers who can make certain things happen, and I'm sure that there is a lot of smoke and mirrors when big movements occur in a share price. But really, come on, multi-multi-million pound movements deliberately engineered between a cabal to take out a few thousand quid in someone's SB account...it isn't really likely, is it?

[supreme mo] 25/8/2013 00:49

It's all fun and games until someone loses an eye.I agree Lib, unfortunately by revealing on this board that Scrut operated on low margins made him a target for the shorters.As helpful battery's spreadsheet is (im a big big fan and thank him for efforts in setting up and updating), unfortunately some shorting opportunists could work out just how highly leveraged iof was...On a positive note Ennismore are very short on iof and at some point they will have to buy back the stock...

[the librarian] 24/8/2013 23:33

Have I gone off my head.... possibly, through frustration though.

Don't get me totally wrong I have learned something from your past posts and appreciate what you have shared with us. Frustration from the amount of times that you have been taken out on margins on IOF, so much so that many know on a drop that you have suffered for it.

Let me put something to you and you can dismiss it as paranoia if you wish.

You wisely told us some time back not to put stop losses in place because they can be seen on screen to be taken out (or not) as required. The flash crash was very suspect to many and seemed like an orchestrated event that took out the margined.... agreed?

Don't you think it's possible considering that you have been hit a few times on IOF that tight margins may be suffering a similar situation as the stop losses?

Yes, I expected my post to grab your attention, but can't you see now, in retrospect of course, that trading on tight margins on IOF is manna from heaven to whoever is targeting them? Food for thought maybe!

[che7win] 24/8/2013 23:33

If the Japanese fukishima situation deteriorates, it could affect 25% of iodine production, worth bearing in mind.

Old article spells it out:

hxxp://arizonageology.blogspot.co.uk/2011/03/japan-quake-affects-global-production.html

They will have to stop at some stage anyway:

Unfortunately, in Japan iodine production is on a slow and steady decline, due to the location of the iodine reserves in the ocean off the coastline. At some point, the removal of brine water containing iodine must halt, because it creates an easily measurable drop in the land mass of the Japanese islands.

[che7win] 24/8/2013 23:03

I keep having to look up the dictionary, haven't come across 'navery' before....

All going exothermic here....;-)

[scrutable] 24/8/2013 22:50

librarian
have you gone off your head?
Just how wrong can you get?

in fact I have a HUGE mortgage and cannot possibly re-enter IOF bullishly except from any SB surplus I hope to engineer from the less volatile parts of my severely truncated portfolio.

You owe me an apology for doubting my good faith. I am playing no game. I see IOF as performing in the future as profitably as I have ever expected and always posted, but you have to be exceptionally biased not to see how late the roll out is - for whatever reason. That means postponement of share price milestones to be reached throughout at least H1 2014- at the moment by at least six months.

Unless rescued by an earlier value-generating RNS on the Water project than we currently expect.

Maybe IOF will see IO#6 delivered by end Dec, maybe they will, maybe they won't. They may even begin catch up. Who knows. We can all hope

All our expectations were, once upon a time, that execution would continue with momentum unchanged, but coinciding with Lance's resignation came partial news of the Texas/Oklahoma switch, and a wide open space was created for the repeated Bear attacks by insensitively crafted RNS reports.

We still need published facts confirming production out performance, at least for IOI#2 and preferably IO#3 so that projections for 2014 can be confidently reassessed.

As I have previously explained I have kept quiet for three months because I have had nothing new to say in face of the increasing uncertainty re execution and timing. I wish that I had not spoken out on this because the innuendos and direct accusations suggest heresy, disloyalty, and down right knavery.

If that's still the general mood I had better stop wasting time on posting here.

[n3tleylucas] 24/8/2013 21:37

You can't have me on filter. You see the post by SCRUTABLE urging posters not to engage with me that you saw today - and commented on - from last night was in fact a screencast of his great post from April - which you'd have noticed had you read the post number and date - which I inserted into MY post.

Looks like you've been telling porkies pal ... minor issue, but interesting nonetheless. Oh, and I'm not jonnybig, another lie. Becoming something of a habit mate?

Swearing? In context I think most reasonable folk think it's okay, but senseless lying is always frowned upon by all decent people in society. Think about it.

Card marked.

[moormoney] 24/8/2013 21:28

I am very happy holding COMS as it is expanding quickly and has a very proactive CEO who holds a large chunk of shares. Early days but I think the co will do very well. Another intriguing company I hold and find very exciting is CICC after reading the excellent research by shareshark on the cicc thread
again early days but I'm adding when I can.

[worraps] 24/8/2013 21:19

superg, re your post 7493

You are on a bit of a pedestal here, quite understandably for someone who has in the past seemed to have had a personal relationship directly with the company. At times of anxiety, or shaky confidence, such as now, people hang on your every word for signs of comfort and reassurance.

You will therefore always be, as the saying goes, in a position of being 'between a rock and a hard place', whatever you do or say. You will feel the need to be discreet with any as yet undisclosed information you have obtained, and yet you will want to maintain your position here, of being a trusted poster.

Other less informed investors / traders will always avidly read whatever you post, whether about IOF or other tips. You're a very handy source of information!!

I have not intended to cause you any offence with my previous post, quite the reverse in fact. I was trying to suggest some things about your personality traits, that could ensure that you remain our most trusted advisor in all things IOF, as it would be a shame if that was spoilt unintentionally by your need to defend yourself.

The fact that you happily meet up with fellow investors, in Cheltenham and the like, means to me that you have nothing to hide, a rarity on bulletin boards, as we all hide behind our pseudonyms every day. You have shown that you are prepared to come out into the open.

Enough said, I feel. Let's hope for a happy September, and no more nasty shocks, as I've never put so much on one share in my life.

[superg1] 24/8/2013 20:35

Re the CEO it is being progressed.

Some see no CEO as an issue they want resolved right now, some really don't get what all the fuss was about.

Going on comments here I was prepared for questions about a CEO and delays, so brought them up myself.

The guy said, 'I'm not bothered about a CEO being in place right now, they will get one but that doesn't mean things will stop while they do'

Fair point.

So the next subject was recent delays and any potential future delays.

Reply. No I'm not bothered by delays in plants or anything else like that, every business has delays of some type, it's the business plan that matters.

So as you can see views can differ, but his guy is way up the food chain of the investment market.

Then the next guy could be biting nails with no CEO in place hugely concerned about a few weeks delay.

I know which sector I fall into in.

However for those that do care, I understand the CEO vacancy is being addressed near term, and that the roll out is going just fine.


Monty makes a great point re the depth of employee's but to add.

What about-:

Dr Khalev the iodine plant guru.

Joseph Duffy

Dan Taylor VP of operations

Fletcher Groff Business development land manager

Rany Zeitoune Project engineer

Kurt Jones. Vice President of Sales and Business Development

Scott Formolo geologist

and various others

[the librarian] 24/8/2013 17:56

Retrospective views are always the ones you can make most confidently Plas, good advice though, '
Wait for the Co. to confirm where it is with the roll-out and then decide if it represents good value, is my take.' Chris Fay certainly tells it as it is :-)

[plasybryn] 24/8/2013 17:26

It is amazing how the RSI 21 has been in a down trend since approx. last Dec/jan.

They say that gives an early warning. I am no chartist, but strange how these things play out.

The MOving Averages are now getting close to the 200 day level.

Is this one great big "Head & Shoulders".

I did raise concerns here a long time ago. Been out and watching the constant decline in capital whilst rampers try to say all is fantastic.
Unfortunately, it is easier and indeed more acceptable to listen to positive comments.
I say listen to the Co.
All other noise can cost you dearly.

[plasybryn] 24/8/2013 17:17

Take nothing for granted.
Listen to no one except the Co.

Wait for the Co. to confirm where it is with the roll-out and then decide if it represents good value, is my take.

[engelo] 24/8/2013 16:57

Boggle, Battery, 1Mad, TFC thanks for response yesterday re plant capex $2m by a majority vote.

Absurd isn't it? Capex recovered in about 2 months. Gold miners and oil explorers should be green with envy.

Being asked by an experienced City hand about the merits of IOF. Sounds interesting, he said. What's the expected profit for 2013? Not very much was my answer, but looking at next year... OK he said, give me your estimated profits for 2014, 2015 and 2016. Said I'd get back to him 

Fair question. There have been various estimates on here of 2014 figs but I've never had a go myself. Others I would trust more!

So if any can READILY quote a guesstimate figure for 2014 profits or give me a post ref it would be appreciated.

My own guesstimate figures for 2014:

Revenues $204m, deductions say 50%, profits say $100m

(For 2015 I'll simply double)

Wd be pleased if any could check/correct these rough calcs based on SG's $20m revenue per plant:


*$100m from I01-6

*$10m from IOF Chem

*Half of 6 x $20m for I07 – IO12 (conservative, new plants may be larger) = $60m

*$10m from Iosorbs, Hypersorbs etc etc

*One third of water revenues quoted at $6m per month by First Columbus: $24m

Total 2014 revenues $204m

Deductions: 50%

*Iodine sold at $60 per kg. deduct $10 per kg for Opex ie 17% (ssume similar margin for water)

*Tax 20%

*Capex for 6 plant builds: $12m: Water infrastructure:; $5m, Prill plant: $3m etc say 10%

*Overheads 3%

[monty panesar] 24/8/2013 16:56

Might be ready in 6-7 hours time!

[the fat controller] 24/8/2013 16:48

Monty,
Have you urinated on any bouncers recently?
TFC

[monty panesar] 24/8/2013 16:47

If they get the 4 plants built by the end of the year then we will be able to say it probably did not affect things too much. Last we heard was that this is still the case.
SG am I right in saying LB is still working several days a week as his health permits?
We don't know how long a notice period etc the "chosen one" might have. No point announcing a new CEO and waiting 6 months for him to join.

Angel of the North   24 Aug'13 - 14:47 - 7497 of 7499   0 0

monty:
re: 7492

The market didn't think so - and neither do I.
We NEED a CEO.

[sandbag] 24/8/2013 15:35

A Freudian Slip?

[angel of the north] 24/8/2013 14:47

monty:
re: 7492

The market didn't think so - and neither do I.
We NEED a CEO.