Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[the fat controller] 21/8/2013 15:33

Bogg1e,
Can you check the link please, it doesn't work as printed.
Tia.
TFC

[joeywald] 21/8/2013 15:31

Longsight

Thank you, always interesting to hear an "outsider's" perspective. As you say the longterm prospects are remarkable but sentiment of late has been negative due to a couple of rather poorly-worded RNS's and the lack of an announcement regarding the appointment of a new CEO.

My view is that the company already know who the new CEO is but are witholding the information for reason or reasons unknown. Otherwise, the appointment of a new CFO last week appears odd.

[bogg1e] 21/8/2013 15:20

SG can you post the link to the water permit site pls? Where it shows the status change of the application? Tia.

PS Its cool. Diggulden kindly supplied it, for anyone who doesn't have it:

hxxp://www.dnrc.mt.gov/wrd/water_rts/appro_info/applications/application_status.asp?id=30066181

[superg1] 21/8/2013 15:08

Long

We are waiting for a new CEO to be appointed. Japan events are nothing to do with the IOF price, if the Japan situation affects the Japanese supply to the market the price will go up. Uncertainty, fear, and the trend are in control here.

I stick to the future view of the fundamentals and hold, what others do is up to them.

[longsight] 21/8/2013 14:57

Reading the news from Fukishima & then checked IOF's share price. How do you guys do it? Is it really possible for IOF to fall on this news? Remarkable.

From the little I've researched, IOF looks a remarkable investment on fundamentals. Amongst all the info, shareholders seem to have lost the plot here though, imo.

If the news from Fukishima continues [& Tepco ain't got no clue imo] then there will be a lot of mentions about iodine in the media.

[worraps] 21/8/2013 14:36

BAGUETTE, in hindsight, I have to agree with your stance. When things here were very exuberant, and excitedly talking with certainty, of £7 by Christmas, your posts seemed very downbeat and pessimistic. It was somewhat irritating at the time, as we were wanting to believe in the exuberation......so much more pleasurable!

As it has turned out, I feel alot less people would have been hurt by this sharp downturn in shareprice, if in fact they had thought like you, and been more grounded.

Like you, and most others, I feel 2014 will in fact be THE very exciting year for IOF. Perhaps the exuberance was a little bit premature, but will be quite appropriate in a few months time!

On the other hand, there's still four months to go in 2013.....and maybe alot can happen in that time. All I know is, I'm going to contain my excitement from now on. Too much frustration otherwise.

[diggulden] 21/8/2013 14:28

Sssshhhhh Boggle! Look what you did! ;)

[bogg1e] 21/8/2013 14:02

This time in the afternoon gets interesting. We are entering into the start of the work day stateside. I wonder if we shall see an uptick on the water permit website. The engineering report landed on the relevant chaps desk last tuesday I believe and expected to take from a few days to about a week to process, so about now would be right.

[che7win] 21/8/2013 13:59

Fair comment Baguette,
The business is progressing, not as fast this year as I expected but then again I always expect delays in any business and I stated that last autumn when I invested.

It's important IOF under promise and over deliver.

The potential upside we both can agree is multiples of the share price, that's what excites me. Maybe this is an ideal time for a takeover before the business demonstrates that potential...

[baguette] 21/8/2013 13:20

Che7win You say I am always negative - I say I do not ramp and try to be realistic perhaps.Look back on my previous "negative" posts and you will see a fair measure of accuracy. We don't disagree at all on what we might hope and expect to occur sometime during 2014 but we may on the speed we reach the goals.

Maybe my posts help to modify expectations and take some of the pressure off some people who may have become over excited by thoughts a few months ago of £5 - £7 -£10 - £20 a share in the not too distant future. Maybe we all have a much lower expectation.

I would rather under-expect and be over surprised.

[superg1] 21/8/2013 12:24

A North Dakota water fact.

We mentioned they have temporarily allowed holders of permits for irrigation to sell their allowance to the industrial market.

Normally this is not allowed but they had to meet the water demand for the oil industry somehow.

Temporary permits are only allowed for 12 months, it will be interesting to see what happens as that time expires.

From recent data 60% of all permits are for irrigation use.

Just 11% are currently for industrial use. That probably means a fair chunk of the frack water being supplied is coming from the irrigation rights owners.

At some point the use of irrigation permits to supply the oil industry will disappear.

[superg1] 21/8/2013 10:58

nev

yes I did buy Atuk at 8.5p just a punt.

I too worry about the high prices. Visa have been with them pre the low levels, it is nothing new.

The CEO made a £50m comment re revenues in 3 to 5 years, which I posted as a stupid thing to say without any real evidence to show how that could be achieved.

Not long after word got around and the herd arrived. I've stayed clear while the BB chaos and interest is rampant.

maybe something new has pooped up, but I'll wait for it all to settle down(if it does) before I have a solid read.

re FUM

Like IOF I dig out the odd bit that never gets posted and yes I'm expecting it to move up very well near term.

For that share the lead product csd and it's CE mark award will get it going.

The recent supply, if it dries up may kick it on too. The suggestion is much of that has been dealt with a another way not visible to us mere mortals. I can't spell it out, as a few years on I now realise just how many read these BB's

[bogg1e] 21/8/2013 10:53

Che7 - thanks.

[che7win] 21/8/2013 10:39

Boggle,
No. Of shares would be 4,672,897, the convertible price is 206p. The company can redeem the bond anytime however.

[che7win] 21/8/2013 10:35

Spike,
It's amazing what some people do, those helicopter pilots pouring concrete over Chernobyl is another example.

Fukishima 50 in the same camp:

hxxp://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jan/11/fukushima-50-kamikaze-pilots-sacrifice

[bogg1e] 21/8/2013 10:33

Che

"36p EPS at a P/E of 20 is £7.50 no wonder the convertible is priced at 205p, it is good business if we realise even half our potential."

- So the convertible bond is set at 205p per share if the $15 mil debt is converted?

Do we know the corresponding number of shares this sum would represent? Tia.

Spike 1 interesting. Hope you didn't lose any mates.

SG - I agree for the most part re aim shares, except QFI, my other holding. Thanks for pointing me towards FUM, which ive been watching for a while and slowly learning about, but dont have excess funds to invest.

[spike_1] 21/8/2013 09:59

Re courage of the power station technicians:

I had the 'good fortune' to visit the Chernobyl reactor for three weeks two years after the 'accident' (it wasn't an accident - it was an experiment/test that went horribly wrong), and again for a couple of weeks, 10 years after, when we actually were able to go inside the reactor building itself including the control room.

Many of the engineers there (monitoring), have effectively given their lives to remaining there until they 'retire', rather than have 'shifts' of people getting exposed.

Again - exemplary courage my men with a very heavy conscience.

Best wishes - Mike

[che7win] 21/8/2013 09:42

Baguette,
I agree that if the company states a figure, the market expects them to meet that figure, the market will not be tolerant of future misses.

This is a growth stock, it's priced for growth and therefore sensitive to growth being met, hence the share weakness over the summer. Any indications of meeting the rollout will be rewarded in the share price factoring in the future profits expected.

My point is right now, even with 5 plants rolled out at year end, there will be no growth priced in at all for next year.

Price in any growth for next year and we would be above £2 IMHO.

[superg1] 21/8/2013 09:37

Take AIM share x

15 pe means it's representing £23m profit loss making and very low revenue.

break into profit maybe 2015, but a clause that will knock back levels that some investors expect.

Share y

15 PE represents £11m profit. Big spending, big debts, loss making,and I can't fathom out when they will get near any profit if ever.

That's the problem with most AIM's it's very hard to work out the maths re potential revenue.

Most are one option shares, if something appears like new software for some, tech for others etc etc, Then the promise falls flat on it's face.

Many have no predictable progress at all, and it's impossible to work out potential revenues.

Even then they don't look anywhere near as good as what IOF could achieve, or what they have mapped out in the business plan.

So I know where I would rather be.

As IOF said 'Mappable events' and those are key features I look for in shares.

No matter how promising a share looks, surely that is a key feature, being able to see that what is suggested is achievable. If that is within the next 12/18 months I'm interested.

[che7win] 21/8/2013 09:36

Agreed superg,
All the company has to do is have 6 plants rolled out in the next 6 months and were looking at 1700MT as realistic with the hope of much more.

That reaches Investecs 24p EPS for next year, water revenues would add another 30% to that figure.

36p EPS at a P/E of 20 is £7.50 no wonder the convertible is priced at 205p, it is good business if we realise even half our potential.

[baguette] 21/8/2013 09:29

SG but the tune changes all the time - now we have "not bothered" if io6 not producing until April. Well you should be, simply because the company in the same RNS I quoted said that 3,4,5, & 6 would be in by year end. We can argue what "in" means but it should not take another 4 months to get productive surely.

My point is that the whole basis of any Public Company's support is that Management maintain credibility and that means not making loose statements/promises that are not met. So lets assume they will all be "in" by year end but please don't tell me not to care.

You know how much I care that there is still no sign of a CEO. The whole matter of Lance has frankly been very poorly managed and I just hope a team of powerful people can do a bit better from now.

[nashwan123] 21/8/2013 09:25

Technicals all positive for a rise.MACD bottomed out and rising and RSI trying to push out of oversold territory. RNS needed to kickstart the share price as the doomsters have the upper hand at the moment.This waitig gam ain't good for my nerves!!