Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[malachey] 24/8/2013 14:39

monty:

re: 7492 - excellent point.

[malachey] 24/8/2013 14:36

Ansana:

'HyperSorb units are still in the design phase but the economics look outstanding'


Should that be 'Hydrosorb'? Or is Hypersorb something else?


Thanks for the info. I have a feeling that some day within the next few weeks we are going to see a sudden and dramatic share price rise. Conditions such as the recent big drop, current negative sentiment/low confidence, the time of year this is and the long list of imminent news suggest to me that its time to buy in and buckle up. Some may wish to wait until after the interims to buy in, but I decided recently that I'd be wiser to get set up now, so I have done my bed&isa and come payday next week I'll be adding to my holding. whether i'm right or wrong not to wait only time will tell, but your post gives me confidence in my decision.

malachey.

[joeywald] 24/8/2013 14:17

Angel

I agree entirely about the urgent need to appoint a CEO. I suspect he/she may already have been chosen given the CFO appointment last week. However, if so, why would they hold back the information? Part of a flood of good news "ping"?

[superg1] 24/8/2013 14:10

Worraps


I don't have to post but the moment I stop, it seems some think something is wrong and I get hit with texts emails and phone calls.

If I post suggesting potential delays. E.G. as said recently, I don't care if it takes until spring to get up to io6. Then I get messages of 'oh, do you think a delay is coming'. NO I DON'T.

So I find myself posting often in a cryptic way, trying to retain a very good contact base that's has built up, trying not to offend ...... etc etc

So yes I am aware of things that are not posted here or anywhere else. What I am to do?

Do I say, I'm completely in the dark here, so it's all guesswork, or potentially blow away all the hard work for the sake of lifting spirits for others.

I note the funds comments, there are plenty out there besides funds that buy.

If at any point a particular guy says, 'Yes, happy for you to mention me' then I will.

I just happen to have done a significant amount of work here, and share the bits I feel able to that wouldn't offend the many contacts built up.

From 1 or 2 exchanging views to 100's. That may increase after a recent chat, and I'll be looking at other shares over the next month or two.

Now take that line, I've done that on purpose. Some will think 'oh why look at other shares if IOF is so good'.

The reason is I've been asked too. Someone highly respected in the investment sector has a business plan, I know roughly what it is, and he has seen the depth I have gone into IOF research. If it happens, I will be following it. If I can find it's already mentioned publicly, I'll mention it.

So if you see me chuntering way on the tips thread asking about any ideas it's for a specific purpose.

Jam tomorrow brilliant idea's are not my cup of tea, but I watch them to see if they make progress, I could list 50 plus now.

Transition shares, making an apparent move to profit near term are of interest.

I find the research of IOF highly complicated to get to the facts. Thankfully very few shares are like that. One took 2 hours and I don't need to do anymore on it. I know exactly what to look for, and why a certain event elsewhere, would significantly affect share X.

It's pointless listing and suggesting that as I fear that some may invest. If the event goes the wrong way, the share is worth nothing. The right way and the price will climb, but the investors seemed to have missed the main trick, that means it would be an attractive T/O candidate.

That's not me being smart and spotting it, I didn't. That was just one guy in New York telling me, and he's right imo.


Oh yes and this is not intended to offend, posts can be read either way as I find out by email so often.

it's just a snapshot of where I find myself.

I could post with a big fat cherry on the top for some aspects, and it would be absolutely true, some things from just the last 48 hours or so.

I know that is absolutely of no use to some, but it is to some that know me well.

[monty panesar] 24/8/2013 13:49

I think people sometimes forget there are already 2 CEO's in place Tom Becker and Forest Dorn.

Forest Dorn has probably had his work cut out over last few months managing the rollout. He is a third generation oiler with the family company being Forest Oil.

LB was originally a temporary Group CEO to tie things together at a PLC level. His background was in investment banking and proved to be more than able in this roll.

A group CEO of course is important but having 2 separate divisions with their own CEO's certainly means they are not rudderless IMHO.

[pcjoe] 24/8/2013 13:26

Sound Ansana - You & me both on the Rubbish front!

[che7win] 24/8/2013 13:24

Naphar,
Yes, that's what I would hope will accompany the results.

[ansana] 24/8/2013 13:17

Madchick exactly.

PC that made me laugh, me switch camps never, pleased to see that you read every word of my posts though even if I write rubbish on occasion :-). i wont bother to edit it.

[madchick] 24/8/2013 13:10

It will need to be more than promises in the H1 results. It will need to be - hey, look, IO.2 is up and running at these ppm. Oh, yes, and IO.3 is being commissioned and we have 20k bpd just ready for it. Oh, and did we tell you that IO.4 is almost finished now?

We don't need "oh, we are still expecting all plants up to IO.6 ready by end of year and we expect IO.2 to be up to full speed very soon and oh we also expect IO.3 to be here soon as well.

The market will need something concrete (well, they need actual and not promised iodine, to be more precise).

[angel of the north] 24/8/2013 13:09

The most important thing by far for me is the appointment of a CEO so that the World and markets will know we are not sailing a rudderless ship and drifting like the Marie Celeste any longer. For me this is taking far too long.

[pcjoe] 24/8/2013 13:07

Nice one Ansana - Minor correction though - should that not be "with certainty" - Unless you`ve subtly switched camps! - LOL

[naphar] 24/8/2013 13:03

Che,

"The near term unknown for me is how the market behaves at the interim results; will it look back at H1 results which could have been so much better or look forward to a much more exciting H2 and year ahead....."

I agree. I hope we will get good news to come with the interims, we have had some delays but the potential is in the future and not in the past. As long as we get positive news to tell us that potential is on the way to being realised (plant builds going to plan, IO2 getting more and higher ppm brines etc) I would hope that will settle nerves and keep investors focused on the future and not on H1 results.

[madchick] 24/8/2013 12:46

To ping or not to ping, that is the question....
(in response to che's last paragraph)

[ansana] 24/8/2013 12:44

Here is a bit of the big picture that Lib was referring to, I received this recently .... The city will wake up, when IOF decide to give them a jolt SG knows it, Ck knows it, Lib knows it and so do I. Worraps we all have different styles of writing and perhaps we are all guilty of reading too much or too little into the words we read or use. For me its about people's motives and best intentions and I can state without certainty that SG has the very best of intentions for all of us, I can't however say that for everyone who posts here. Some are self serving or have become self serving as their position has changed and that I detest.

Anyway here is the information I referred to at the beginning of my post, enjoy, relax and above all be patient. Hang on to the coat tails of the Insti's as Lib said. Note the comment re 7/8 and the economics looking outstanding.

"As anticipated, we are on track for
> completion of IO3 by the end of September with IO4 coming online
> shortly after. We anticipate IO5 and IO6 to be completed by the end of
> the year with the procurement and installation of IO7 and IO8
> commencing by year end as well.
>
> HyperSorb units are still in the design phase but the economics look
> outstanding. Our current priority is IOSorb plant rollout"

[che7win] 24/8/2013 12:24

Scrutable,

I believe your previous comment below is possible.

"2) If by some unusual flair of negotiation a price much above �10 could be agreed, there is nowhere, anywhere in this world where anybody could find a comparable return from the funds received than from IOF during 2014/15/16/17... "

In hindsight, with too many fellow investors geared here, that should have been a warning to investors like me that a fall such as we've had was a possibility.

In the long term, it's irrelevant to the share price.

Warraps, I would say to you that I'm more confident in IOFs potential and the risk reward at this price than 6 months ago.
The more plants they roll out, the less risk in the business for me...the reason being that mishaps like happened with io#2 can happen again, but if we have 12 plants rolled out end of next year, it won't be much of a problem if one plant is not running at full capacity.

The one question mark remaining for me is how much reliable capacity can we expect each plant to run at on an ongoing basis. If it is 75% or above, I'll be very happy.

E.g. 12 plants capable of 350Mt at 75% capacity is over 3000MT per year gets us to 40 EPS or £10 a share at PE of 25.

Even at 250MT and 75% capacity for 12 plants is 30p EPS after tax.

Simplistic maybe, but the margin of safety is substantial and sufficient for me to see much upside if the company can roll out plants at the increased rate they have stated.

It took a while for me to become as confident as superg and others on the numbers, but they are there for all to see from company announcements.

The near term unknown for me is how the market behaves at the interim results; will it look back at H1 results which could have been so much better or look forward to a much more exciting H2 and year ahead.....

[worraps] 24/8/2013 12:17

Yes, you're right there, pcjoe.....the institutions do tend to 'go on holiday' this time of year. September is building up to be quite a month, one way or another!

[pcjoe] 24/8/2013 11:58

Re Institutional investment interest - Hopefully once the Carribean sand has been fully washed away from between the toes & the kids are back at school then renewed focus & energy will be applied to the market generally & not just little old IOF - Quite possibly the best performing publically listed Iodine company in the world at this time? - Having seen the share price graphs for a few of the rest I reckon so

Next years holidays & school fees need to be paid for - The city will be on the hunt for bargains soon

[worraps] 24/8/2013 11:48

Lib....you're suggesting I look at the bigger picture.....the one I can't see?

That's the whole point, Lib.....it isn't visible!!

[worraps] 24/8/2013 11:44

superg......I mean this with the kindest of intentions.....but I feel you are doing yourself no favours with post after post of telling us what a good egg you are, of all the favours you do, of all the sacrifices you make, how you don't have to do what you do, but are doing it for the good of us all, etc. etc.
Blowing your own trumpet is never attractive. And when you come here, saying you have all sorts of information, but you are not going to reveal it (because you don't feel appreciated enough?)....well, why tell us you have this information then? Are you trying to tease? Trying to make us ask you to tell? Trying to feel the power you have?

The information you provide here, and on other boards is astounding, and I am full of admiration for all the facts and figures that you research and unearth. And like others, I am very grateful, there is so much that we wouldn't know if if wasn't for your famous 'digging'.

I still fully believe in IOF's potential. As far as I can see, the only problem is that that potential has been delayed, and we don't have a captain at the helm to steer the ship. I still fully believe that IO1, IO2, IO3, and IO4, at least, will be fully operational by end of 2013. The more units that get built, the faster the roll outs will become, because they are learning as they go to some extent. And they have learnt alot already.

You can't blame people for being disgruntled at a 44% shareprice drop. It's understandable. There was alot of hype earlier in the year, and people's expectations were high.

I hope you don't moderate this post, as I mean it with the best of intentions.

[superg1] 24/8/2013 09:55

Moving on.

I note results, yes 40% would be good wouldn't it Scrut. Do you mean H1 yoy or the full year?

I've mentioned many times re the chem div having a bulk purchase and surplus iodine mentioned by the CF in June 13, so they had plenty for the chem div needs.

I'll end that bit there. We'll see what comes out, but I anticipate growth for the Chem div.

As for the roll out I can find nothing to suggest things are not going well.

I did say many weeks back I would post a lot less info here, I am not sharing bits and pieces, for those with an ulterior motive to view, they can just wait and see what happens.

[the librarian] 24/8/2013 09:35

All I can say to that worraps is that you need to look at the bigger picture, the wheeling and dealing that we don't see, the information that we don't have. I will quote someone else on this

'The only way any of us are going to make money is if we hang on to the coat tails of the Insti's while they are trying to shake us off.'

I hope that makes sense.