Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[n3tleylucas] 20/8/2013 22:42

This is 137p because profit expectations have been slashed, a fact IOF have not disagreed with. The 'poorly worded RNS's' excuse is now boring. Wake-up, understand how markets work, and how shares are valued.

More pain to come here (about 62p's worth), then we'll talk about fair value.

The stock is worth 75p at the moment, but that's dependent on making £10m pre-tax profit for 2014. A lot of good news is still needed to hit that target, any more disappointments and we're looking at 40p or less. Strong SELL.

[supreme mo] 20/8/2013 22:01

No proble mo!

BTW I forgot to say about the mobile units. For those that don't know, these will be used on sites where there are low Barrels Per Day (BPD) sites but where high Parts Per Million (PPM) exist i.e. greater concentrations of iodine found in each sample. IOF say they have sites with hyper PPM sites which these mobile units will be ideal for use, so that is something else to look out for. Jeff Ploen mentioned in the presentation many attended that we should get one of those on-line before the year is out.

The story is still the same i.e. just waiting for each plant to be built and commissioned. The brine is still there, the leases we have are still owned by IOF and the BPD is certainly still there. How many operational oil operations did Jeff Ploen say you could see when he went to the top of IO2 - wasn't it over 20/30? My point is that there is a hive of activity going on over there in OK.

I think the wait of IO3 coupled with the uncertainty of the CEO gave a few the jitters... not to mention a couple of poorly worded RNS'!!!

[worraps] 20/8/2013 21:59

escapetohome.....it's no wonder some of us are feeling the strain, it's ten weeks tomorrow since the Lance resignation RNS. That's ten long weeks of shareprice carnage, and still we wait. Of course it can take time to find the right man for the job, and hopefully the new CEO will be worth the wait. I don't even like to think what will happen if the market reaction is as muted as it was for the new CFO.

Lots and lots of investors here bought shares at well over 200p, once the story of IOF began to get 'out there'. I would say the vast majority are not as fortunate as superg and friends, who bought them for a few pence or so. It's therefore much easier for them not to worry. Although even if I had bought them at under 50p, I would still be finding this prolonged drop very painful. We're talking a 45% drop here! Not pleasant.

So, I am a worried sheep too, and can only hope some good news updates are with us VERY shortly, as superg has intimated many times.

We cannot afford any more 'downplaying' RNS's. It's time to come out from 'under the radar', in my opinion. Between now and the New Year 2014, that's just over 4 months away, THAT'S ALL, if it goes to plan, our patience should be rewarded. We're not all youngsters like superg, and some of us need our rewards sooner than others!

[festario] 20/8/2013 21:49

Talking of confidence, and the market has done a great job of denting that, has anyone seen that most confident of investors recently?

I am of course referring to Scrutable. He has spent much effort here comparing IOF to the stunning performance of ASOS.
I know that he was heavily leveraged, and lost a shedload a month or two ago, but surely if the story remains the same he would still be in here in some manner, surely?
I see that he has posted on other stock's bulletin boards, but has he given up on IOF? I sincerely hope not.

[escapetohome] 20/8/2013 21:28

Thanks Supreme - confidence imparted - a sheep reassured.

[supreme mo] 20/8/2013 21:18

Hi escapetohome.

SG is just as bullish as when I first had the pleasure of meeting him. He is still here and is fully loaded. For all the grief he gets on here (I know I was one of the main culprits at the start) I am surprised he bothers to post here.

In terms of normal service, the company is currently generating cash and as each plant comes on line I personally expect to see an 80p appreciation on the share price per operational plant. You don't have to be Einstein to work out that 4 further operational plants in the next 6 months should put the company at a much higher price than we are today.

That is not including Water (which rights granted hopefully shouldn't be long now)or any oil or helium potential on IOF acreage.

OK it was only a small purchase but Dr Fay bought £30k worth of shares at £1.50, so at £1.37 is this not an opportunity for some bargain hunting?

[superg1] 20/8/2013 21:03

Shaver B lol but you are in the wrong state.

Pigeon

Once it says application correct, it's a countdown to the
'determination to grant rights'

Basically like planning over here, they put out a notice re granting of the water permit, it's a public notice rule in the legislation

IOF said they are 99% certain of getting the rights and they have no knowledge of anyone with a correct application being refused.

The rules are you have to have a beneficial need identified before you apply. You can't get rights and then hope to pick up some customers later. Hence IOF mention letters of intent to purchase water, but already have the deal with Halliburton re that.

So once the box saying 'application correct and complete' gets an entry date, then it's virtually a done deal, just waiting for the determination to grant form to be completed.

So the application correct box is what we are waiting for.


Take a in the neighbouring state, North Dakota and it gives you an idea re the likelihood of the permit being granted.

In that case a land owner with rights, switched to supplying the oil industry with water for fracking. that supply/right was from an aquifer/well which is the same source some locals go their domestic water from, they were obviously up in arms about it and it made the news.

The fact is clearly stated. If you identify the beneficial need and tick all the boxes, by law they have to issue the permit.



In this particular case they talk of the guy as having held an irrigation permit for many years and so all he is doing is using the same amount but giving it to the Oil industry.

However while I'm on the subject. Many small depots and rights owners have temporarily changed their water rights to allow irrigation water to be used for industrial use.

Such use is against the rules, but there are not enough depots in place to supply the Oil industry. So ND and Montana introduced temporary legislation to allow irrigation water to be used for the oil industry-:

Policy for Obtaining a Temporary Water Permit for Industrial Use

To facilitate more efficient distribution of water for the oil industry, the State Engineer has developed a new policy granting temporary authorization for holders of existing irrigation water permits to use water for industrial purposes. Click on this link for the policy.

At some point those temporary permits will be withdrawn, and the depots with the correct rights will pick up the customers.

Under water laws, you can not downgrade your rights, irrigation to Industrial, is a downgrade.

That's where the Iofina USFW rights swap, is sitting pretty for the future. The USFW rights are a lower grade than industrial use, which means it's fine to upgrade them.

IOF will just keep that option in their back pocket and apply for rights just like everyone else, until normal rights are fully appropriated. Rights from the Missouri are unlikely to be fully appropriated for a year or two yet.

[escapetohome] 20/8/2013 20:40

SG you say you will still be here when many others have come and gone.

You are the expert on this share and you have the contacts with the company. Just how long do you anticipate we will have to wait before normal service resumes?

I am beginning to miss Uriney and his shopping trolley antics. All lot of trolleys are available atm!

[shaver b] 20/8/2013 20:20

Superg1 seems to know the water process.

[pigeon1] 20/8/2013 20:13

THanks Superg

Just so i've got it absolutely right - what do you mean by the countdown starts? A day? A week?

You think they'll get it?

THanks

[escapetohome] 20/8/2013 20:12

If only we could get some of the ATUK performance over here SG? fetr you recommended thet share price flew, but suddenly collapsed. I think many were caught out by the drop and sold.

The IOF share price is LESS than double the flotation price after 5 years of listing.

Must be undervalued for the progress made to date. BUY.

[superg1] 20/8/2013 20:07

Pigeon

Application correct is the next step. If the application is correct, it's just a countdown to the 'preliminary determination to grant completed'.

This is the form the reviewing person fills in to say yes to grant rights. This is the point an rns may come.

The 45 day rule is to do with public notices. They are very common and cover a multitude of applications besides a water permit.

[pigeon1] 20/8/2013 19:48

Ok thanks Naphar although i'm hearing we won't be waiting that long for what it's worth

When it is deemed correct and complete, and that box is ticked on the website, does IOfina automatically get the temporary permit issued simultaneously?

And are people expecting RNS for those events?

[naphar] 20/8/2013 19:42

Pigeon

Hopefully not long for it to be deemed correct and complete, then given preliminary determination. Those 2 could potentially take some weeks based on history of some other applications. After that it will be a minimum of 45 days to get official approval (45 days plus some processing time)

[pigeon1] 20/8/2013 19:42

Hope we'll be smiling Shaven

[shaver b] 20/8/2013 19:34

I have my fingers x'd too...

[pigeon1] 20/8/2013 19:14

Superg or others - aren't we approaching D-Day for the water application?

Must be any day isn't it?

Surprised there isn't some pressure building in anticipation or maybe punters want to se it to believe it..

Fingers crossed

[nevmyers] 20/8/2013 17:31

Hi SG

Yes I know you mentioned ATUK a while ago it was after that I looked at them, Wasn't sure if you had bought in or not, I mentioned a while ago on here that when they were 9p I was going to buy when they dropped back down to around 7p seem a stupid move now but that is how I read it at the time, I now need to read up more and decide if i want to get in at a higher price or now leave it, I have seen talk about the Visa but I don't think anything has become concrete yet on that. I was more concerned in getting back into FUM as I feel the time is right now so I have done that.

[superg1] 20/8/2013 16:32

nev

I spotted ATUK and mentioned it on this tip thread a while back, and bought some. The price took off, share are very tight.

It was one to watch if things went their way and it has prospects.

Then the CEO made what I thought was a bit of a stupid comments, £50m pa in 3 to 5 years. Some caught onto that, some herd guys joined in, and now you have the outrageous climbs of recent times.

I haven't stopped to look and read, they have a link with visa. maybe something has pooped up, but without a thorough look, it's seems pure momentum on a herd of interest flocking to get it.

Like you I assume it will all calm down near term, but trading must be flying around on it for now.

However it's a great result for nick and others and the originals that bought some, as they should all be in between the 8p and 12p mark.

That is a great example of year end results skewing things. They said they would miss revenue due by a month or two, which pushed that cheque into Q1 this year. The price took a dive on that news to around 7p I think.

Now look at it. Those that sold because of the 31st Dec date will be kicking themselves.

That's why I steer clear of financial report periods and concentrate on what is going on near term.

[nevmyers] 20/8/2013 15:57

I have been watching ATUK for a while now, Many shares I have owned or considered owning in the past have been overvalued having looked at ATUK annual report they have less assets 2012 year end than 2011 year end and for the amount of shares in the market is only around a value of 5 or 6 pence where are we getting the current value of 30 plus pence from and what is going to support it. I know they got great things in the pipeline but so do IOF and I bought in there and am losing heavy just now, It will be Interesting to see if ATUK follow a similar path to IOF by falling back quite steep after this rise. That in my opinion would be a good time to buy, maybe this will happen after the September figures are released.

[n3tleylucas] 20/8/2013 13:03

"the company Wasn't in trouble without this loan"

Heart rules head. 137.5

[superg1] 20/8/2013 11:25

sand

The market will do it's thing, not a lot we can do about that other than focus on the business plan, and future roll out.

On that front it looks very lucrative and in a far better position 6 months back, so it's just a case of patience for updates and the roll out. The lack of a permanent CEO over recent months has certainly knocked it back.

This is all the fear stuff that gets mentioned many times on shares.

I'm very positive about what will come over the next few months, and will still be here when many others have come and gone.

So we just wait for, interims, or a prior chem div update, along with the CEO news, and water update etc.

I just stick to the maths re production and prices. io1/2 were on .8 to .9 average in May and iof said back to that soon, and they were on about half rate or over.

2 to 3 mt per day and it all changes quickly, but plants could be capable of a lot more

[noli] 20/8/2013 09:54

sandbag, they must have thought i lived in the area, No i am not known to them.