Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[dorset64] 19/8/2013 20:48

Are they advertising for more or is this an old one?

hxxp://igwmc.mines.edu/job/2013/Iofina.pdf

[worraps] 19/8/2013 20:23

Ok, superg, thanks for that.

[superg1] 19/8/2013 19:05

No change worraps., but any filled post can include, package discussions, and the unknown circs of any applicant, that may have to leave another position etc.

So it's just a case of wait and see.

[gadolinium] 19/8/2013 19:00

This is new to me.

Altlantis Technologies (presumably nothing to do with Atlantis Water Solutions)have developed a water treatment system suitable for treatment of produced water, based on Radial Deionization (RDI). The process involves absorption of dissolved positive and negatively charged ions on to oppositely charged carbon electrodes to give a deionised produced water stream. The absorbed ions are then released by reversing the polarity of the electrodes to give a corresponding concentrated brine waste stream with a ca. 90% concentration ratio. They claim cost savings over reverse osmosis or vacuum distillation methods of 50% and 66% respectively for 10,000 ppm brines (Iofina's Atlantis produced water is 6500 ppm). They claim to have tested it successfully (bench top scale?) on 100,000 ppm Eagle-Shale gas produced water and 19,000 ppm Marcellus shale gas "fracture water".

------------------------------------------------


Technical Summary Radial Deionization

Atlantis Technologies has developed a low cost produced water desalination system based on the patented Radial Deionizing super capacitor technology platform (RDI™). The RDI system evolved as a game changing technology from over $5,400,000 of funding by the US Government (DARPA & US Army TARDEC) and another $300,000 founder R&D investment. The patent protected RDI system is positioned to take significant market share from state-of-the-art technologies such as reverse osmosis and brine concentrators.

The RDI is the next generation capacitive deionization and is 10 times the speed, one quarter the price, and 15 times the range of the previous generations of the technology. The founder and CEO, Patrick Curran, was a member of the original DARPA engineering team and is a world expert in the field with multiple issued and pending patents.

The RDI™ system can deionize produced water from oil, gas, and mining operations for 40 – 70% less cost without cleaning chemicals with clean water recovery up to 95%. This lower overall cost of operation is due to lower capital cost, maintenance, operating expenses, and reduced disposal costs. In many cases, the RDI system can take the place of multiple unit operations such as reactive silica removal, hardness removal, and salt removal.

The super capacitor based system can handle low solubility species such as calcium/barium sulfate, high tds streams such as produced/fracture water and RO reject. The system is scalable to tds above 100,000 ppm, flow rates over 1,000 gpm and recoveries over 90%. The RDI is able to concentrate the brine reject stream by a factor of 10 or greater which minimizes brine waste and facilitates the isolation of desirable salts such as sodium sulfate, rare earth metals, and sulfuric acid, making the actual costs of treatment at mine sites much less.

Atlantis has conducted significant laboratory and bench testing in a methodical approach to scaling the system to commercial application. The Company has built 12 and tested bench and pilot systems. We have built and shipped 2 field pilot systems for evaluation in the mining and power generation industries and have 3 pilots scheduled for deployment in Q1 in oil/gas, agriculture, and drinking water.

The system has been successfully tested on actual produced water from shale gas, heavy oil, and mining and demonstrated the bench top system at the corporate headquarters of numerous oil and water treatment companies. Our operational costs are well documented and available upon request.

---------------------------------------

Full technical details and costings are available on the link below:

hxxp://www.deionizing.com/technology.html

[worraps] 19/8/2013 18:03

superg.....way back in early July, (post 4541), you said that "Lance said they expect to ping on the radar in a big way in Q3". We're well through the Q3 now, so is the 'ping' near, or have the delays put the ping back to Q4 now, do you feel?

Also, in many posts since July, you have been saying that the post of CEO is rumoured to be "very close", and "could be filled very shortly", and "maybe near selected", and "CEO situation is very well advanced", etc. Can I assume from these comments that we truely are very near now to an announcement?

I had my hopes up that with the new CFO announcement last week, the CEO one would be close on it's heels!

Great appreciation as always for all your diligence here.

[baguette] 19/8/2013 16:31

By the SG if something else is going on its not convincing many with yet another strong dip today. Please no more nudges and winks - lets all just wait - I have made my point

[superg1] 19/8/2013 16:17

Yes Bag

But that's assuming nothing else is going on.

[worraps] 19/8/2013 16:05

Yes, BAGUETTE, it would be very sweet icing on the cake if Lance were to be involved, and even sweeter if he made a marvellous recovery in his health, and actually was re-instated as CEO. I can dream!

[baguette] 19/8/2013 15:59

For me the share price will not move until a new CEO is announced. Yes we now have a new FD which is excellent news and a Director of Procurement being sought but the real test is whether IOF can acquire a strong, dynamic, experienced CEO - only then will the message become clear that we are truly on the way. By the way the icing on the cake would be if the CEO could find a place for Lance to be back on the Board in some capacity (and if Lance could find a way too !)

[superg1] 19/8/2013 14:53

Hard to call a PE rate when some AIM's carry values higher, with potential revenue lower, and they have no revenue at all for a few years yet.

It's strange old game.

Once there are signs of a solid roll out and production increases to match, then the rate could move quickly.

Take ASOS the flyer, all know about it now and yes good growth, but at a PE of 390 currently, it's waiting for profits to catch up.

[che7win] 19/8/2013 14:41

dig,
I agree, any positive updates from here and the share growth expected next year will start being factored in.

I never expected a fall below £2, but now that it has, I guess it takes time for the share to recover that lost ground.

[diggulden] 19/8/2013 14:34

Che, your figures are largely in line with my own, although I am working off a PE of 25 given the growth forecast for 2014.

I think the market are waiting for a solid production update given the problems with IO2. Once IO3 is commissioned it de-risks production further so I will see that as a huge vote of confidence.

Rockstar has always been spot on when he/she posts, so looking forward to updated broker notes with new production upgrades.

[superg1] 19/8/2013 14:20

Sand

That they were selling below the going rate, SQM go as low as $55 for the big orders.

It all seems to support that Sirocco have struggled to keep customers and have moved to building an inventory to rid themselves of the 12-14 weeks delivery time.

However it still doesn't smell right.

If sirocco were on 1200mt pa then they were on a 23 mt per week rate. They want to fix the problem of being 12 weeks behind, but also claim to be able to add 388mt this year but have added 78 in H1, which means 300mt for H2, in theory at an average rate of 23 mt increase for every 2 weeks.

So they could knock of 2 weeks per month in theory as they go forward.

So if they are not supplying for 6 months, and you combine that with the intended increase, it just doesn't add up and looks like overkill on the intended inventory.

[che7win] 19/8/2013 14:20

dig,
I base OPEX on $10 to $15 per plant but as I said above, the figures are rough as these are variable parameters. Better to look at the overall gross profit per kg produced.

Roughly, $40 profit per kg seems fair = $40,000 per 1 MT.
So 100 MT = $4m or £2.5m or ~2p EPS.

1400MT therefore is 2p * 14 = 28p EPS. Take tax off and it's around 19-20p EPS which gives my 200p share target based on Q1 and 5 plants. That is why I think below 200p is cheap.

Scenario: If the company were to roll out no further plants next year (NOTHING), then 200p would be a fair price target on 5 plants operational and 1 not operational at any time i.e. no further growth from end of this year.

If 5 plants = £2, 12 plants by end of next year = ???. Then factor in P/E of 20.

That is a ball-park for my own personal valuation, I realise that there are positives and negatives to influence these figures but it gives me a rough valuation.

I am puzzlied why we remain at this price given the iodine, water, oil potential.

[n3tleylucas] 19/8/2013 14:04

"I thought next year was a roll-out of 1 every two months?"

You'll believe anything.

[sandbag] 19/8/2013 13:05

Sg1,
WRT Iodine price. What's the latest from your Chilean contact re Sirocco? The less production worldwide the better the chance of iodine prices remaining high.

[diggulden] 19/8/2013 12:27

Che, good post.

'I expect the iodine price to be around $50-55 KG.'

What OPEX have you used in your calcs?

[che7win] 19/8/2013 12:07

Spike,
yes, you are correct, my mistake, I've corrected and there will be other methods of production:

"Iofina has updated and expanded its Iodine Extraction Agreement with one of the largest independent oil and gas producers in the US, most significantly, now covering four separate locations. In addition, this agreement provides a unique mechanism to rapidly add additional locations providing a growth path for future expansion. Based on the Company's exploration and sampling program, Iofina has already identified several locations beyond the four committed sites. Through this on-going exploration, the Board is pleased to announce the discovery of multiple sites with extremely high iodine concentrations. The Company is developing a unique Hydrosorb processing unit to match the characteristics of these sites. This plant will be able to produce significant volumes of iodine without the expense of processing large water volumes. The Company is also in the process of developing its Mobile and MaxSorb units to meet the needs of additional production profiles.



Budgeting for 2014 is being undertaken with planning currently incorporating six additional plants, one every two months. "

[orslega] 19/8/2013 12:02

Spike1

yes that is what the operational update said (I seem to recall it being stated here that the hope is for 8 plants but IOF managing expectation by saying 6)

"Budgeting for 2014 is being undertaken with planning currently incorporating six additional plants, one every two months."

[spike_1] 19/8/2013 11:58

che7win:
I thought next year was a roll-out of 1 every two months?
Best wishes - Mike

[che7win] 19/8/2013 11:21

Rock star,
re post 7213, nice post and got me thinking.

Iodine production:

2013:
Q1: 17.5
Q2: 45 (included a bad June and other disruptions)
Q3: 69 (one month at 500kg and two months at 900kg per day leaving potential for 50% higher with better brine and more volume for IO2).
Q4: 142 (IO1, recycling + IO2 = 100kg; IO3 and IO4 online two months at 0.7 total = 42 KG)

Surely that is achievable as IO3 and IO4 should be capable of two times the 0.7 figure for Q4?

2014:
Q1: 350 (142 Io1, Io2 + 208 (IO3, IO4, IO5)

So looking at iodine production growth quarter on quarter:
2013
Q2: 157%
Q3: 53%
Q4: 105%

2014
Q1: 146%

I like to rationalise figures to the share price for my own sanity (apologies for those that don't).
If we are at a run rate of 350 MT 4 months from now (ie.Q1 2014), that is 1400MT annual run rate. I make that a rough share price target of 190-200p for P/E 10 or 380-400p for a P/E 20 which should be achievable.

Rough calculations, but the triple digit growth that the management mentioned is apparent from the above. The above doesn't include chemical division, water division, plant 6 which should be operational Q1, mini-pods. I expect the iodine price to be around $50-55 KG.

I expect that IOF will continue to release the iodine quarterly figures as if they meet the above, the market will be rattled. More investors will come on board as the market is largely ignorant to this company IMHO.

Just remember, IOF has announced they are speeding up the plant roll out to one every 2 months next year, that growth rate will continue.

DYOR.

[pnetol] 19/8/2013 10:10

I think it was more a L2 LSE supply that kept reloading, didn't want to put their full offering on show and a persistent buyer taking out that particular supply. Mms 141-148.25 and a few offerings at 148 as soon as we start to hit mms then the price could move quite quickly.

[freshvoice] 19/8/2013 10:01

They may be an iceberg going through to get average price for day, could be a large position being built ?

[sandbag] 19/8/2013 09:59

Lots of buys of 1580 too!