Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[orslega] 10/8/2013 18:23

SG/noli, many thanks

[baguette] 10/8/2013 17:59

Digg's post yesterday 6834 points to the advert for Director of Procurement. This displays a much more positive view of IOF than recent releases, a good read.

So glad to see the position being sought, not before time and needed a.s.a.p

[superg1] 10/8/2013 16:15

Ors

The Atlantis field has low saturations, and has few contaminants, which is what makes the produced water potentially lucrative.

That waterflood link earlier is interesting, as it could mean a whole new demand for water in the future, I'll have to read some more re that one.

IOF have other shales besides the 3 forks too.

As you have mentioned gas, I'll mention the Niobara. That play is all over the US and often features oil.

However in Hill county it's a gas play, but not just gas, it seems it is wet gas, which is prized.

I became aware of it after an article popped up which mentions Exxon. The relevant map, has been in iof presentations and elsewhere.
Right over iof land there is a red splodge, denoting the Niobara and gas. All around other gas plays are ignored, and comments about wet gas.

However that's as far as I looked, and it is a bit of a mystery. IOF are on the Niobara, maps and reports highlight it in Hill county under IOF's land, but iof don't have that data, someone else must have. IOF have the rights though.

IOF do have data and mud logs for the 3 forks.


Much like the Nisku, really not a lot known, but something that popped up just months back

If productive, the Nisku horizon could be a prolific horizontal "resource" target which appears to be charged with oil. Fractured porosity is noted throughout the entire wellbore and it is possible that we are dealing with a highly fractured reservoir in the Nisku.

'If's' but that's the same with many oil play out there, and that for some, that is all they have, 'if's' on oil.

We have it as a free carry, with others, that happen to be drilling and testing, in areas where iof are all around, or right next to them. Very handy not having to do anything re those levels.

If they have oil, we have oil. Then what ??.

For now True oil seems to be progress play, and at some point they will have to submit a well completion report

[noli] 10/8/2013 15:44

Orslega, gas yes however with gas prices are low at the moment. Nothing will happen, imho it will be another company via farm in or an outright purchase.

I have looked into LNG also, this is still not worth it at the moment.

[orslega] 10/8/2013 14:07

SG : re potential for oil, all very interesting, thank you for a good overview of how the potential for oil in the area is unfolding...and maybe for IOF

just wondering, and sticking with the Atlantis field, no one mentioning natural gas....presumably shale gas?...gas therefore is another potentially valuable (but non core) revenue stream..

from Iofina website....in fact no obvious reference to oil on the website, which I thought interesting! So potentially gas revenues bigger than oil?? Your indepth knowledge here will no doubt clarify this apparent anomaly for me.

hxxp://www.iofina.com/iofina-natural-gas/the-atlantis-field

"The Group has acquired lease rights to produce both iodine, co-produced water and natural gas at the Atlantis Field. To date the Group has acquired approximately c.290,000 acres. In addition, the Group owns a thirty four miles of pipelines and has 34 wells. The pipeline is already ultimately linked to the TransCanada pipeline system, offering Iofina access to national gas markets.

The Atlantis Field target region is located between two of the most significant biogenic gas fields in North America; Medicine Hat field to the north, has already produced 5 Tcf of gas while Tiger Ridge field to the southeast has produced 1.5 Tcf. The Company estimates that as much as 1.8 Tcf OGIP of natural gas exists in the Atlantis Field, within Cretaceous age sandstones of the Eagle and Virgelle Formations"

[superg1] 10/8/2013 11:12

Water flooding now, more fresh water use. Hot water preferred.

The Shaunavon by the way is NE of IOF just over the Saskatchewan border

[superg1] 10/8/2013 11:06

Fresh

Busy so no time to check the posts. Trying to sneakily post as and when opportunities arrive lol. Anyone not living on their own will know what I mean.

Without looking it probably means per annum, or it could be a typo where I haven't checked posts.

Fat fingers, and still haven't progressed beyond using two of them for typing. My fingers rarely keep up with my thought process.

[superg1] 10/8/2013 10:04

Lib

Just snippets. All that work over the last 18 months is banked and growing. It involves communication lines beyond that would stun, so I won't be surprised if we learn of certain things before iof or anyone else this side of the pond.

We have already proved that a few times, some posted about, some not.

IOF concentrate on the iodine run, it's the core business. Talks could be going on re any of the other sectors.

We banged on about Chile going down hill, on here while the analysts and tipsters were hyping the Chile boom. Chile has hit the wall across many sectors.

We talked seawater use when no-one else was, now all they talk about is seawater.

I did a post way back (probably on the old thread) warning about not to get caught up in the Chile hype. Why?, because guys with Chile connections were sending info. I checked out their comments and could back it up through other sources. I gave one or two companies some stick over facts they were not putting in their results. They had me down as investigative journalist. Then I noted deep 'one liners' appearing in subsequent releases, which happened to cover some points raised. coincidence????

It seems to me very few look at the bigger picture and focus too much on the company they are invested in.

Part of the reason for iof's fall is down to funds taking a bear view on mining stocks. It's just a sector list to them.

Even Fat prophets who followed IOF had IOF as a miner with potential huge mining costs. ???.

They do not do the micro cover that we do, they simply wouldn't have the time to do 5% of what determined PI could do. No paid analyst will have ever done a fraction of the research we have done here.

5 top notch companies had SQM as a hot share to be in, and on it's highs. Just look at the share price in the timeframe that we have been saying, Chile is heading for a nasty bump.

It just so happens 58% of the worlds iodine comes out of Chile. That's because they have that caliche, but rocketing costs sent the iodine price soaring. They can't go back on costs, and now have sweater pumping costs to add to the opex pot, now and in the future.

It is the resource problem and much higher costs for others that makes IOF an attractive investment. Chile have an answer to their woe's on power, but it will take about 10 years, and I suspect , their opex will have gone up a tad by then.

Chile wages have jumped, so have power costs. The infrastructure is awful, water is scarce and they need loads of it for mining iodine and every mining sector in Chile. The mining sector is all about the Atacama, the driest place on earth.

So with all that info about Chile I was thinking way back, mmmmmm very tough times ahead for them, with no real answer.

Meanwhile, IOF test samples not just from the US but around the world, and that just proves to them, that commercial iodine is very scarce.

[freshvoice] 10/8/2013 10:01

Super,

What is PA you mentioned above?

tia

[the librarian] 10/8/2013 09:47

Sounds like three forks is as important as the Bakken, if the True oil play is a decent conventional find then all eyes will be turning towards that area.

'Of the 7.38 billion barrel mean, 3.73 billion barrels is attached to the Three Forks, meaning the 3.65 billion barrels attributed to the Bakken in the 2008 study remains unchanged in the revised study five years later.'

[superg1] 10/8/2013 09:37

So on the Oil side, 3 lot's of unknowns there.

Weil 1 will they/are they testing the Nisku (that well is surrounded by IOF)

The Nisku "pay" zone in the Weil #1 well is worthy of intense focus. If this zone tested productive, it could constitute a new "resource" play over the entire geographical area. The Nisku could represent a very good
horizontal drilling target.

Our wellsite geologist noted strong oil odors and fast streaming cuts out of a 50 foot interval in the Nisku.


True oil

A number of producing oil wells appearing, but it's one that isn't on the map yet on a new level, that the conventional oil comment comes from. True oil are topleasing around the area.

Then iof's 200k of 3 forks that is creating great interest across ND and Montana.

IOF are next to that acreage (adjacent IOF say)

There is clearly oil around. Brown j burns found a conventional pocket years back.

True oil have oil production, but have something new, and are keeping it quiet.

Weil talk of the Nisku they found while looking for Helium.

So a bid for the 3 forks, or oil excitement for any of the others, could pop up at any time.


Just imagine that type of research and details for an oil company thread. It would be dumped across the BB's.

It's far more relevant now, as we knew of the 3 forks, but all of the action re the USGS, oil companies going after the 3 forks, Weil and True Oil with new potential plays next to iof acreage, has all come into play since Q1 this year.

I'm in for the iodine alone. I doubt those short have the first clue about the oil side. They know sod all about the iodine side, and equally re the water. Good luck to them. It's all just part of the market and a bet either way.

On the motorway I look through the front windscreen, I find it far safer than drivel entirely by looking in the rear view mirror.

That's why I prefer research to TA. TA is very useful on companies with obvious trend lines as they often cover one business sector.

With IOF it's a collection of possibilities of lucrative revenue streams, some which could be bids, JV's, or iof run. All in a boom sector.

The iodine business looks highly lucrative, so does the water business. The 3 forks is a fabulous prospect, and could feature.

No need for the extra's though as iodine will do. Oh and the extra $4m to $5m that kicks back in PA in a few months, and is nowt to do with any of the above, including iodine, and has been absent over the last 12 months.



It's all in rns's people just don't read them properly.

[the librarian] 10/8/2013 09:36

That is an impressive write up superg, all along it has annoyed me that they were just sitting on those rights and apparently not doing a lot with them.

Looks like the oilies are doing the work and the sales pitch for them, thanks for the information, it now looks very promising!

[superg1] 10/8/2013 08:51

For those that don't understand IOF's position. When they picked up the Atlantis play 200k acres plus, that included deep rights to a shale known as the 3 forks.

As you can say the USGS say it extends further than they though, and is now seen as a growing lucrative oil play. Continental have always been well ahead of the others on the 3 forks and they have the most data.

Note the USGS says it goes further West into Montana.

They haven't got the full data yet. Current maps don't show the full extent of the play. I doubt if the USGS have IOF's 3D data.

IOF are not guessing about what is under their land re shale. In the lease acquisitions, they picked up $11m worth of 3D seismic data for the entire area.
They had much more acreage, but ditched some based on the 3D data.
I covered all of this in conversation with IOF well before the 3 forks interest started, as did others. It was said that the 3 forks is 100' thick across the entire play.
They also have on the west edge some coverage of the Alberta Bakken.

IOF have the muds logs too from some well data of drilling by others. That drilling was done pre the frac tech boom, so while operators knew there was oil potential down there, they didn't have the tech to recover it.



IOF mentioned it in a presentation in May 12

Deep Shale Rights

Adjacent new oil discovery and helium production
Actively marketing  deep rights potential 
Large acreage creates interest
Bakken /Exshaw and Three Forks Shale formations present on 3D data

In the May 12 results they said-:

While iodine and iodine derivatives are the Group's core focus going forward, the Board believes a lucrative outcome in the form of revenue from our water resource or potential deep rights will materialise. "

They also said-:

'We have completed an exploration evaluation of the deeper horizons under our current acreage position, specifically the Bakken/Exshaw, Three Forks and Sawtooth horizons. The shale thickness, especially in the Three Forks, is encouraging for reasonable production of oil.'


They don't say a lot about the deep rights, and we know they are always going on about the focus on the core business of iodine. They don't intend to be an oil company.

However they are sitting on a large area of the 3 forks, that recently the USGS have claimed has doubled reserves in the area and extends farther than they thought.

Continental who are the lead on the 3 forks, and have plenty of data, have the reserves at much higher.

As for the adjacent comment. That is to do with a well called Weil 1. IOF surround that area.

They have this year talked of another adjacent oil prospect, conventional oil, and that is True Oil, who are busy at the moment in Liberty county.



On this map, if you pan out until the scale shows 20 miles, it then gives you an idea of IOF's lease area.

Just to the right of the pink marker is the river and Fresno. Work west from there, over towards the green circle of wells to the north.

SW of the pink marker you will see a line of green dots. That's where the Weil 1 well is (Helium and comments of a potential new oil play called the Nisku)

Straight West of there and you come to a splodge of green dots. That's True oil, and that's the area, where IOF mention themselves as adjacent to a potential conventional oil find.

So far we have dug out that the find is said to relate to the Bakken. It can be confusing re that, as the Exshaw/Alberta Bakken is in that area.

However it seems True oil have starting top leasing (registering first refusal, for leases allowed to lapse) around the area they are drilling.

Way back I thought IOF's land was mainly in Hill county, but after much more research in recent months, it's clear their acreage extends well into Liberty county.


That lot is one of the freebies we talk of. I can imagine the hype on an Oily thread if they had that acreage as their main potential. It would be hype mad, especially since the USGS survey and that the punters knew they had 200k acres of the stuff,at good thickness with the company talking about it looking good for oil.

In fact if I looked at some small oil companies, I doubt they have anything like the iof prospect. A shale that looks set to double the Bakken reserves, Continental claim a lot higher.


Obviously the True oil conventional play, could be an additional level of oil and open up the area. They are already taking out oil from one level. But they have a new level in play, and that's what all the secrecy is about down that way.


The Weil 1 Nisku is another play again if they test that and it's a runner.

It's a matter we don't mention here too much, a bit weird being the bunch of rampers that we get called.

But as the USGS keep banging on about it in recent months, and the oilies are getting very excited about it, then maybe it's worth a quick mention.

A couple of us have the well report for one location, so we are not guessing.

We know more about both locations than iof do.

However all we need to focus on near term is iodine. If a bid comes in for their acreage, near term (and it could, they are marketing it), then that could be whacking lump to go into the pot.

However the longer it goes on, the less acreage the oil guys have left to acquire and prices climb.

I'd even say, if iof move quickly on iodine, and build the cash, chuck in a test well of their own, on a prime spot. The area is far more shallow than in eastern Montana and the Bakken, so much cheaper to drill. Another factor that would attract suitors, if commercial oil is there.

IOF won't be doing that play themselves it's just an asset that will be moved on, as a farm-in, or sale of the deep rights.

[noli] 10/8/2013 08:00

I can see Continental Resources knocking on iof's door. Could that be the surprise.?

[superg1] 10/8/2013 07:53

Re the 3 forks,
It seems to be going pinging away on the media route and oil companies going after it.

List here form recent days-:

Newfield checking out lower Three Forks benches, Pronghorn




Oasis




XTO/Exxon




Continental



Continental Resources is contemplating skyward adjustments of recoverable reserves estimates in the Bakken petroleum system based on a massive revision in the company's oil in-place estimate. The company plans to make revisions of its recoverable reserves estimates in late 2013 at soonest, once it completes extensive productivity testing of the lower benches of the Three Forks formation.

Three Forks, which lies below the Bakken formation, is the reason Continental's in-place estimates spiked sharply upward. If Continental is right about Three Forks, the Bakken petroleum system is vastly richer per acre and more cost effective to drill than previously thought.

So far, as Continental delves into the deeper benches of the Three Forks, its case is getting stronger.


The US recent geological survey say-:

Three Forks is expansive
Three Forks is a thicker and more extensive horizon than the Bakken, extending further east across North Dakota, further west into Montana and as far south as South Dakota. However, only about 5 percent of the formation is said to have been tested, compared with 14-33 percent in some of the better-known parts of the Bakken.
The Interior Department noted that since its 2008 assessment, more than 4,000 wells have been drilled in the Williston Basin, providing updated subsurface geologic data that helped in updating the study.



For those that don't understand IOF's position. When they picked up the Atlantis play 200k acres plus, that included deep rights to a shale known as the 3 forks.

As you can say the USGS say it extends further than they thought, and is now seen as a growing lucrative oil play. Continental have always been well ahead of the others on the 3 forks and they have the most data.

Note the USGS says it goes further West into Montana.

[engelo] 10/8/2013 01:21

"BALTIMORE, MD--(Marketwired - Jun 6, 2013) - Goldman Small Cap Research, a stock market research firm focused on the small cap and micro-cap sectors, has issued a research report on Norstra Energy Inc. (OTCQB: NORX), an oil and natural gas exploration company focusing exploration efforts in the under-exploited southern portion of the Bakken-Alberta Fairway in the central portion of western Montana.

Click here to view the full report: www.goldmansmallcap.net/norx

Given its property interests in the less-followed southern Bakken-Alberta Fairway in the central part of western Montana, we view Norstra Energy Inc. as a great undiscovered and potentially lucrative play on the Bakken formation. The area consists of over 10,000 acres of leased land in Lewis & Clark County, Montana. Moreover, with the history of major oil companies such as Shell in the region in the 1980's, there is both abundant and favorable seismic data.

Our preliminary estimates call for 51,000 barrels of oil production in 2013, 243,000 in 2014, and 317,000 barrels via multiple wells in 2015. If prices hold steady and management meets its timetable, we believe that Norstra (OTCQB: NORX) could earn as much as $5.6M in 2014.

To view the full report, click here: hxxp://www.goldmansmallcap.net/norx"

10,000 acres (10 year lease) mkt cap $20m

What price 200,000 acres?

[engelo] 10/8/2013 00:43

sg: more to come from USGS:

In an unusual move to update an estimate more quickly than usual, the USGS is working on a new assessment due to come out before the end of this year. According to USGS Energy Resources Program Coordinator Brenda Pierce:

The new scientific information presented to us from technical experts clearly warrants a new resource assessment of the Bakken. The new information is significant enough for the evaluation to begin sooner than it normally would. It is important to look at this resource and its potential contribution to the national energy portfolio.

- See more at: hxxp://www.masterresource.org/2013/06/mighty-bakken-resourceship2/#sthash.Tit5snCI.dpuf

[pcjoe] 10/8/2013 00:42

Hi SG - It seems that exploration of the lower 3 forks formations ( below the bakken shale strata) is only now seriously getting under way led by Continental & one or two others - The bulk of Iofinas acreage ( west of the main activity around North Dakota & Eastern Montana) is apparently characterised by a comparatively thin or absent bakken layer but encouragingly thick 3 forks strata - It will be very interesting to see the results of the new exploration & testing programme

Continental O&G appear very hopeful that the lower 3 Forks will be a very productive new source of oil

As a complete but obviously interested amateur my main if possibly misguided questions at this time would be:

a)Is the lower three forks oil source dependant on a substantial thickness of Bakken strata being present above - with the inference being that a thick Bakken strata is a necessary indicator for a productive lower three forks play?

b)Does Iofinas lower three forks strata match that of the strata being tested further East in terms of pressure, depth, maturity etc necessary for it to produce oil?- especially in the absence of significant Bakken?

Difficult to find anything re the above on the internet - Of course IOF are not restricted to 3 Forks exploration ( They have some decent Bakken & possible conventional interest even further west adjacent True oil discovery apparently)
- Interested to know if anyone else has had more internet digging luck exploring this new and possibly exciting development for IOF`s oil aspirations

[engelo] 10/8/2013 00:24

Digg: good find! Agree with your assessment.

[n3tleylucas] 09/8/2013 22:37

"P/E of 25 based on FC next year EPS figure of 9.93p means a share price of 250p is realistic, especially as EPS will grow 600% between this year and next year."

That's one way of putting it ... here's another. This year's EPS has been slashed by 70%. Next year's 10p is also well down from Investec's 24p.

You cannot justify a p/e of 25 given such disappointing progress.

A p/e of 9 is warranted, on my 2014 est of 8p ... 72p fair value, the shares are too high.

STRONG SELL

[superg1] 09/8/2013 22:36

Worth a read, a current report on the growing 3 forks interest.

They say it extends further than they thought, with it being better on the West side.

Sections go a long way West, 100' thick and right under IOF. One of those nice potential free extra's

[naphar] 09/8/2013 22:31

Dig, from that ad "Further, it offers geological and chemical consulting services."

News to me!! I wonder if that relates to the non iodine related line of the P&L...

[diggulden] 09/8/2013 22:25

This is exactly the sort of positions Iofina need to be creating as they move forward.

Director of Procurement - Denver, CO

[engelo] 09/8/2013 21:22

I wouldn't want to be out of these over the w/e, as is often said, but some have chickened to-day and will imo regret their timing :-).