Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[malachey] 07/8/2013 11:14

Looks like a lot of ISA'ing going on again today.

[superg1] 07/8/2013 11:07

Boggle

Iodine levels don't drop off in the rapid way that oil production does, hence Deepwater chemicals and iochem have been able to operate on the same spot for 25 and 35 years.

I hear iochem are now after 35 years seeing an 8% drop PA in concentration. Most old wells stop after 15 years. But the cycle of drilling means there are plenty of wells round in various stages of their life.

I will try and find the iodine curve again, it is buried on the net somewhere.

Don't forget that original brine going to io2 is from old plays and wells and still had good ppm content.

The curve can be maintained by new sites, and IOf say they have over 100 of them already.

If IOF deliver significant volumes of iodine in the coming year, there will be a saturation/balance point somewhere.

That will be determined by a number of things-:

Iodine demand and growth.

Price fluctuations, a drop may happen but then old markets come back, so that's a bit of a see-saw that one.

If prices drop some Chile mines can't survive as their opex is too high, so they would mothball or close etc, adding to the available pot.

Japan stuffed re their resource, new commercial resources very scarce. Chile costs set to rise re seawater need. 12 months back hardly any of them were talking seawater (we were here). Now all of them are talking seawater needs for the future. So are many other sectors in Chile. That runs the screw re opex. pumping it 75km 7000 feet up with four powerful pumping stations is not cheaper than well extraction on site. Capex range for just for a pipeline for Chile guys, $50m to $250m

Growth rate demand year on year has been around 4%. 5 years add around 7000mt in demand.

Price drop would mean a few smaller Chile mines may fold adding around 4000 plus dropping out of the market.

Growing tech need for iodine, some old one's disappear, but some interesting future one's appearing, most recently related to lithium batteries. Pace makers have the Lithium iodate version due to it's safety profile. That will surely filter through to all lithium batteries in time. Safety up (plenty of lithium ion fire accidents), twice the power, and thus smaller sizes and less weight.

It's a long list of factors and I consider those as all relevant, positive or negative.

Plenty of graphene experiments re iodine showing success, but that is way down the road imo re grapheme.

It's a bit of a wonder element, that prior to researching IOF I thought was for disinfectants.

As no iodine sector is on the EU market or ever has been as far as I can see, how can anyone, without the extent of research done here, ever begin to understand the market. They don't bother, why bother when there is Oil, metals, and minerals that the market understand.

I get it, and I share it, what others do, is up to them.

[rugrat2] 07/8/2013 10:57

Just popped in for a cup of tea, and a scan of this morning's posts.

Sg re 6694, I have been wondering how long it would take for someone to make reference to that expanded deal. Agree 100% that it is Chesapeake, so it would appear that IO#4 to 7 will be with them, by my reading of the rns.

[rhwillcol] 07/8/2013 10:53

Any thoughts on FJET (Fastjet)? I haven't bought any, and would only commit a very small amount as a "punt" at this stage. For the sake of African travel though, I do hope that they do well, and "get airborne" without too much "turbulence". I like the concept and the pedigree.

[bogg1e] 07/8/2013 10:42

Mikky, If Sam stated that the plants will operate 85-95% of the time then that gives enough room to explain downtime for connecting/disconnectng brines sources. Brine volumes however are bound to fluctuate to some degree given the drop off rate at the well head.

[superg1] 07/8/2013 10:42

Maca

Have a look and see if you can find the PPM hot spot in Texas. then compile the entire list of companies on those leases.

I forget how many there were, some small and some big, but I completed the report after IOF spotted I had done a lot of research in the area, the list of players and where they were I understand helped.

Finding out who has leases where is not an easy task, but I got lucky on that sector as one website had done all the work and listed them. However finding the website is difficult.

Try Montana it's a pain, until you find one site, but then a lot of the info is inaccurate. Then by cross-referencing other data, 2 and 2 eventually makes 4.
IOF mention leases, adjacent to a conventional oil find recently. It took a while but that is True Oil. IMO some leases iof may have are right next to that play.

To find the little guys on the web that may have details, you have to use obscure searches, or go through hundreds of pages of hits.

On FUN that's how a I found a confidential product details.

It's bloody hard work, can take 100's of hours, but can pay off. I know that form 25 years experience in other sectors.

I know Tom Win is not popular and I really don't like the way he outs messages on the net.

However hat's off to him for that phone call he made re the oil well story (duster) while the directors were on a flight back.

Frowned upon, and not cricket, but no rules broken either. Absolutely infuriating for those invested no doubt, but options like that are available on all shares.

If I lived in the US you can imagine the level of info that would be on here re plants, build stage etc etc.

[neddo] 07/8/2013 10:40

not happy with the drift down?

[mikkydhu] 07/8/2013 10:37

What are the risks of disruption of brine supplies or reduction of brine supplies to any particular IO plant? Although the oil companies are very active and are likely to continue to be so, drilling new wells all over the place, surely for Iofina the disconnecting of one source of supply and reconnecting to another can cause a lot of downtime. It seems that wells only produce oil and therefore water too in large quantities for a fairly short time. How can Iofina ensure a regular supply of brine in these circumstances?

[bogg1e] 07/8/2013 10:37

That thought makes a me a sad panda :-(

[sandbag] 07/8/2013 10:35

Boggle,

I wasn't suggesting a buy out at this price but whilst the share price is as low as this pehaps enough IIs and PIs would accept say £4 a share.

[bogg1e] 07/8/2013 10:26

SG Chesapeake etc - do you see those as possible or likely suitors to buy out IOF? I assume someone like DOW chemicals, partly cos they are cash flush, but as IOF are on the extraction side their business would partner well with an O&G.

[superg1] 07/8/2013 10:22

Maca

Well,

Surely Midstates Conference call has had more impact than Lance?

After all in the absence of any other Oklahoman supply partners being announced IOF are competely dependant on this source


Bad research again.

Iof are with most of the top ten O and G producers. They said in an rns, unless contracts are materially large they will not mention those again.

They are with 2 of the top 3 in the US.

So 1 and 3 or 2 and 3., Maybe 1 2 and 3 by now.


EG They are with Chesapeake, Sandridge, and Devon energy. That covers 2.5 millions acres in the area.

Midtstates took Eagle and more recently panther.

It was said contracts can be company wide so many areas are covered in a deal not just OK or the 4 other states IOF mention.

In the last rns's they mention an expanded deal with a top company. I'd say that is Chesapeake.

Your research is flawed.

[bogg1e] 07/8/2013 10:12

I can answer my own question, according to TDW (who i don't trust entirely for forecast dates) interrims are out on the 17th September. 5 weeks to go! Ooooh im so excited.

[maca1212] 07/8/2013 10:09

Well,

Surely Midstates Conference call has had more impact than Lance?

After all in the absence of any other Oklahoman supply partners being announced IOF are competely dependant on this source, and with Midstates move to pad drilling it looks like supply volume variability is going to increase, making it very difficult for IOF to achieve nameplate processing capacity.

The biggest unknown for IOF centres on the quantum and quality of brine resource delivery in Oklahoma - in the absence of technical/competent persons reports and any formal resource verification (other than evidence of Arysta's quest for 300ppm+ brine sources and unvalidated talk of 'hyper' streams with very little flesh in terms of bpd, ppm or sustainability).

In the unconventional Miss Lime environment where it seems likely that brine streams will decline in line with oil and gas liquid volumes, the difficulty is that delay in implementing plants means that (presumably) valuable brine streams are being disposed.

However worse than not implementing plants is implementing a plant and then not being able to leverage its apparent capacity (regardless of where in the supply chain this originates).

Talking up performance and then not delivering - even when such talk us unRNSed chat, is a dangerous thing.

M

[bogg1e] 07/8/2013 10:09

SG1, is it the 20th september when the accounts are released?

[superg1] 07/8/2013 10:06

For those 'longer in the tooth' in investments. I know funds are cautious if there is no CFO on the BOD.

That matter will also be rectified and was mentioned on the AGM, so we can expect a CFO and CEO to join.

[bogg1e] 07/8/2013 10:04

sandbag, any offer at this price but wouldn't be accepted by the BoD. In turn the predator would have to start accumulating from II's, meaning they would have to offer a significantly better price + word would get out, adding to the buying pressure.

[superg1] 07/8/2013 10:00

No doubt re that last line worraps we can clearly see what happened post that.

Clearly there will be a lot more caution now after events in the last couple of months. But a lot of the down momentum has been created by forced sells, triggered by to some extent poor wording in rns's.

A simple thing like, we had issues re io2 (which were mentioned in the AGM rns) but now have new brine arriving in July with improving production.

Apparently that is what the situation was, but when you have a guy in temp charge in the UK and operations in the US. Left and right hand failures happen.

The business plans remain the same.

Some trade, some play the momentum game either way, and others like me are long term investors.

The current circs are reflected in the share price, but a lot of it is down to shorting, forced sells and nervous investors. Buyers sit on hands etc etc.


Shorts will have an exit point/price determined by performance, news, and many other factors . Equally a few long no doubt have exit points, never to return.
Don't forget some sells in IOF will no doubt be down to sharp down moves on other shares too as SB guys protect margins elsewhere and here. If they sail to close to margin calls they are always at risk. Hence I mentioned SXX, but have no idea have many IOF investors would be in that one via that route.

The business plan hasn't changed, and in fact has improved (looking at the last rns) and a new guy will arrive to drive it forward near term.

They don't need cash, the chem div is suggested to be doing well, and we are moving forward.

It's not comfortable for some to watch moves against your wish.

The AIM is predominantly about investing in shares with future potential. I still see no better, share on the AIM for future growth.

It's just a bet as to whether they will build more plants and produce more iodine, and on that front I'm very confident.

One risk would be the entire area stopped chucking out iodine in the brine. However iochem have been on the same spot for 35 years, Deepwater 25 years, and the Japanese 50 years. Sio that isn't going to happen.

They have the tech, they are rolling out the plants, and they have a vertically integrated chem div as a bonus.

So I'm happy for the long term, and then we have water gas and potential oil as a bonus.

[roundup] 07/8/2013 10:00

We must consider that the 52 week range goes from 40.50. to251.75. It is no wonder some want to bank profits on weakness.Anyway I have now been able to top up my Isa at a bargain price.

[sandbag] 07/8/2013 09:59

dig,

Assuming no buyout. The lower the price goes the more of an absolute bargain for a predator.

[joeblogg2] 07/8/2013 09:56

Just checked IG and there appears to be no shorts open now

[uppompeii] 07/8/2013 09:55

I don't disagree digg, and I'm glad you can take these drops on the chin now after the other week. I'm probably a bit older than you and been bitten badly before so a 3-4x gain isn't something I want to see whittled away, and 2015 is a long time. I hold a fair amount in my SIPP still for my alter ego longer term view but I treat personal shares and SB's a little differently.

[fairenough11] 07/8/2013 09:55

Intra day high of 160 on Monday,now 134 on no BAD news.lol.

Easy money for the "bots" a 26p swing and that's what its all about when we get trolls dampening sentiment to try and create their own BAD NEWS.

This is when I tend to BUY.

[square1] 07/8/2013 09:54

We will no doubt see continued volatility over coming weeks. Things will only change substantively on IO#3 completion, then a new revenue and value driver is on stream significantly boosting production. The rest is just noise. I guess at least some of the short position will close ahead of that so maybe stock on loan will provide a guide as to how the build is going!!

[diggulden] 07/8/2013 09:49

Personally whilst I don't like to see the drop, as paper profits start to disappear, I remind myself I am not invested for the share price today, tomorrow or even 6 months from now.

These last couple of weeks have made me realise more and more that this is a 2015 stock, if we are still independent. Imagine the scenario, we enter 2015 with at least 12 IO's running kicking out anything between 200-450MT per year, a handful of minis contributing another 50-100MT each. We could enter 2015 producing in excess of 4000MT and that's without any new plants scheduled for that year. You only need a calculator to work out revenues on that production.

That is what I am invested for.