Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bobbyshilling] 07/8/2013 08:06

Fair enough Sg re: filter.

[bobbyshilling] 07/8/2013 08:04

Sg,I had the feeling yesterday that there was a general mood of flatness so that is why I posted, just to give my personal view. Whether people are interested or not is another matter. You raise some very potent points to add to my thoughts. It seems that one has got to be very careful as to what one says though, as of course there are always those who interpret it as a whine. They should read more carefully.

[jointer13] 07/8/2013 08:04

good points sg

[superg1] 07/8/2013 08:02

Bob

Use filter. I have for a long time, no idea what they say. Not even tempted to look. I did that a while back across the entire posting list to find one in particular is just and offensive, manipulative alcoholic, an internet troll, probably on social sites, under other names abusing people. We've said this before, the craving is to prompt engagement. Check my post out re trolls on the tips thread, it's a hot topic on twitter and that guy is on twitter, announcing himself as an internet troll. They couldn't give a damn what anyone else thinks.

Newbies may not know that, but if they do want to engage then he has his own thread.

[flying pig] 07/8/2013 07:56

SG1
On the IOF thread you say that you see some stocks going bump. While not seeking short positions, could you list those you have concerns about that might be looked at? I was a credit analyst in my youth.....

[bobbyshilling] 07/8/2013 07:50

I wasn't talking to you NL.

[superg1] 07/8/2013 07:50

Bobby

shorting is part of the market, and always will be. But who are the one's most at risk.

Does IOF look like it will go bust..... No they are actually going into a phase of rapid potential growth and revenues on delivery within a year or two way beyond this current share price.

What risks do the shorts face-:

Purchase of the deep rights by another, iof have no plans to develop that themselves. The USGS months back have said the 3 forks has doubled the Bakken. The full extent of the 3 forks and reserves and not yet fully established. IOF have data no-one else has.

The water permit, which will then have brokers adding value for the water sector.

Purchase of the water division. There are a number of players expanding and looking to add in that sector.

A bid for the iodine division. SQM historically have always gone after any up and coming iodine company. I wouldn't want that. SQM had 3 main strands, Lithium, iodine and potash.

The 3rd has just taken a big hit with plenty involved in a big market, lithium is abundant and they had there problems with that Gov tender on that front.
The one solid sector is iodine, so what are they to do now if IOF become material in that area, or SQM consider they will be material. The forecast opex and capex (IOF) is way below SQM's competition. Then Toyota want in too.

The True Oil play ???? an unknown, but as far as I'm concerned the lease list I have found to me seems to indicate iof have leases right next to that action.


So just think of up to io6 within 6 months, it doesn't matter if it's 8, if they have slight delays. Annualised rates over 1000mt ($60m PA revenue rate)
Water permit., depot 1 apparent $29m revenue, but it could be a lot more if they do a decent amount of hot water. Just 10% hot water adds $10m to that figure.

The deep rights. 200k acres plus. They have selected those leases as they have the 3D data. 3 forks said to be 100' thick across the entire acreage. Some of the Alberta Bakken Exshaw too.

Some won't know here, but in digging one came up with the entire well report for a recently completed well adjacent to IOF's acreage. That goes on about the Nisku looking like a potential prospect, but whether those involved test that or frack it is unknown. That sector runs under iof's acreage. A wildcard that may never appear but the report was bullish about it and from that report I can see where the 3 forks runs etc, and it's much more shallow than in Eastern Montana, that means less drilling costs.

Some of the above is current and in play short term, other parts could be now, a year or two, or never.


Hence you will get the shorters working overtime near term on a BB. They want you to sell, to help their cause. A dropping price is what they want and big positions, need big supplies to close. Short positions now, can't relax and sit tight until next year. That would be very high risk compared to what is being mapped out, and in particular the iodine sector.
The water sector too re gaining the permit, imo they don't need a depot to be able to sell water short term, but I'd rather wait for the permit before that option is discussed. I must look up the feasibility and rules re that.

At the moment things have got 1 or 2 quarters behind, the water permit is pending, and we don't have a CEO. So yes they are going to be busy now, they don't have a 1 year or 5 year view.

I look across the shares and can see a few with bullish posts and climbing prices. There are 2 or 3 that I think will go bust within 2 years. In some cases, facts that some unaware of and others just logic based on research.
You can't post to warn people as you then just come across as a shorting liar, and why would someone post who has no position etc etc.

Well I can assure you 90% that post that way are short, and seek to undermine confidence for personal gain.

On many shares I can see the points raised on the bear side, and I shake my head at the 'keep the faith' crew.

IOF have a lucrative business plan in action, not some distant dream of tech of the future breaking through, or a miracle drug 10 years off where the vast majority fail, with huge costs.

Oh, and who says someone isn't tickling re the deep rights now. ???

[n3tleylucas] 07/8/2013 07:29

"Hmmm, seems like shorters are jumping on the share price drop and are doing their best to hammer the share price even more."

Why don't you blame the broker who slashed 2013 profit est by 70% mate? It's all about making money, and you are going to be making less than you thought. That's why it's falling ... not posters, not shorters, not charts, not SHONNY, not me.

The business is weaker than expected, so the shares fall. Simple. Get over it, and stop whinging & whining. That goes for a few others as well.

[bobbyshilling] 06/8/2013 23:55

Hmmm, seems like shorters are jumping on the share price drop and are doing their best to hammer the share price even more. BUT - be careful what you take as propaganda or fact. They will obviously say 'look at the numbers now, charts and such, (which are actually still good if you consider the teething troubles), but take a look at what is to come - if you have researched properly.

Aim is a shambles at the best of times, because I have come to the view that there are too many trying to get one over the honest PI. Unfortunately there are some on margin with spread bets who are in trouble as the share price falls, but if you have bought your shares, just try to look ahead as to where the share price could be in say 12 - 20 months with the roll outs and increased ppm's, and the water contract, (probably just one of a few to come, and we have Atlantis up our sleeve). These are the things that will make the share price motor in the relatively short term; oil and helium are a fair distance into the future, but they are there as a prize still, should a bid come in.

The reason I am posting this is because I don't like to see people panic sell just because others try to manipulate pain to their advantage. Of course I MAY be wrong, but actually my personal opinion is that this is one of the best opportunities that I have seen to make a difference. I have lost a 'paper profit' the same as many others no doubt, and could lose even more, but if you are in for a year or two, three, then the way the company is going (and I recognise that wherever one invests there are risks - look how the so called solid banks etc were hammered just a few years ago), and you can wait, we should be OK.

I don't believe for one minute that the management are leading investors up the garden path and I personally think they are doing their absolute best on behalf of us shareholders; you only have to look at the way they have been responsive to arrange meetings with shareholders, and the way they respond to emails, (some companies don't bother), knowing that their responses will probably be communicated onto this bb.

Of course mine is only an opinion, and no doubt there will be some who will slag it. It took me a long time to try to understand the many facets to IOF and in which cumulative direction they will take us. As I said in an earlier post, unfortunately there are those that take pleasure in seeing people lose money. In my personal opinion anyhow, that is a short term view: none of these experts were around when the share price was climbing from 60p to 245p, and ask yourself the main reason for the climb - maybe it is a good company!

Any of us can look good with the benefit of hindsight, trouble is, hindsight isn't there when you need it!

[ansana] 06/8/2013 23:31

And to finish your point Mad the market will start to move the share price in the other direction. Roger Your wife can count me in on having sufficient faith in this company to continue to buy and hold. I suspect Mad feels the same. So three good women taking NO notice of the shorters who post their doom and gloom one liners and offer no evidence other than old data to support those one liners. Iofina are still working away every day why wouldn't they be, look at the shares they hold between them. The tech is proven, indeed the tech is being developed to take advantage of all those lovely hyper hyper brines we have been told about. I03 is well on, IO4 is right behind it and is also on track and the janitor tells me that from the get go once the tweaking is finished they are going to produce plenty of iodine from the brines already in place. He says they are still partying about the patent let alone the progress on the other plants 3,4,5 and 6. That's enough to be getting on with I won't bother to mention the CEO, that's all under control as well.

[escapetohome] 06/8/2013 23:15

NEW YORK, Aug. 6, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:

Global Iodine Industry


6. RECENT INDUSTRY ACTIVITY II-36 Iofina Completes IO#2 Iodine Extraction Facility II-36 Atacama Minerals Changes Name to Sirocco Mining II-36 PT Kimia FarmaTbk to Form Joint Venture with Consortium Led by Mitsui II-36 Anticline Disposal Inks Agreement with Iofina Natural Gas II-36 Toyota Tsusho Acquires Minority Stake in Algorta Norte II-37 Li3 Inks Agreement to Acquire Alfredo Project II-37 Ha Long Sets up Largest Plant in Southeast Asia for Processing Iodine and Salt II-37 Iofina Takes over H&S Chemical II-38 Godo Plans to Set up Testing Unit in Chiba, Japan to Develop Iodine Compounds II-38 Soquimich Signs MoU to Merge with Anagra SA II-38

7. FOCUS ON SELECT GLOBAL PLAYERS II-39 Godo Shigen Sangyo Co., Ltd. (Japan) II-39 Iofina Plc. (UK) II-39 Ise Chemicals Corporation (Japan) II-39 Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Japan) II-39 Nippoh Chemicals Co., Ltd. (Japan) II-40 Sirocco Mining, Inc. (Canada) II-40 Atacama Minerals Chile S.C.M. (AMC) II-40 Sociedad Quimica Y Minera de Chile S.A. (Chile) II-41 Ajay-SQM Group II-41 Toyota Tsusho Corporation II-41 Deepwater Chemicals, Inc. (US) II-42 8. GLOBAL MARKET PERSPECTIVE II-43 Table 14: World Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for Iodine by Geographic Region - US, Canada, Japan, Europe, Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan), Middle East and Latin America Markets Independently Analyzed with Annual Consumption in Metric Tons for Years 2010 through 2018 (includes corresponding Graph/Chart) II-43

Read more here: hxxp://www.heraldonline.com/2013/08/06/5090704/global-iodine-industry.html#storylink=cpy

[madchick] 06/8/2013 22:38

For Sirius, it's as much the delay on planning permission and an apparent lack of ability of the planning association and the SXX BoD to see eye to eye and the resultant unknown delay and its overall impact on project timelines that's causing panic. Then today their broker, sacked a few months ago and in its last month's notice period, put out a note correcting their target from 30p to 9p. Then SXX released an RNS to explain that discussions with the planning association were progressing in a good fashion and still ongoing and they remained optimistic at overcoming hurdles (so up it went from around -30% to around -9%). SXX has always been very volatile (and it's polyhalite rather than potash and it's not producing, so potash prices shouldn't really affect them much now and even so they will be low-cost vs the others; arguably a lot of politics being played in the industry).

Anyway, off topic, but if you think IOF is volatile, look at the SXX charts over the last five years! It should be enough to give anyone here some comfort. And the current drop in IOF is still not bad as the drop in the IOF old days from 80p to 18p. IOF is in good shape, it's just taking time, that's all. It's only a problem if your investment timeline was only until early August this year.

Not sure how much a new CEO will affect confidence here - depends how well he or she is known and their previous track record, I guess. I think the main thing the market wants to see is IOF actually coming up with full production and the ability to install and have a plant running in short order. If the market can see that, the market will also be able to make inferences...

[superg1] 06/8/2013 22:18

Just look at Sirius, that general potash news has hit then hard. If that's all they have, then it will be very hard to fix. I haven't looked at them much, that side hit SQM too.

[n3tleylucas] 06/8/2013 22:05

Oh please rogerbridge, stop bringing your family & friends into posts ... it's unedifying, emotionally suspect ... and just wrong. Stop it.

[napoleon 14th] 06/8/2013 21:45

I noticed a late shake on several AIM/ISA shares yesterday.

I'll wait for noise to die down & production figures are clearly stated.

[rogerbridge] 06/8/2013 21:36

I am away from home at the moment, but have spoken to my wife this evening. I was concerned that she sold some long term holdings in her ISA and purchased a couple of thousand IOF shares. I appologised for my bad timing and she said that I worry too much about short term movements and should not she buy some more for her ISA.
It comes to something when the wife hads more balls than me.
Point taken my love, will top up your ISA.

[superg1] 06/8/2013 21:28

Bag

The O and G system in OK with Eagle/midstates, is a piped system to swd's.

IOF simply place plants at the SWD location.

Many pipes exist from years of operation on old conventional plays, gas and oil.

The 'tying in' of new brine would seem to be the creating of pipeline to join into the existing network, hence off would go the old brine while they tied in the new pipe. That is probably the brine disruption talked of due to the action around io2.

It seems logical that they would utilise the capacity of the nearest SWD, before drilling a new SWD and miles of pipeline to re-direct it. IOF now talk maxsorb which is bpd at rates higher than 30k bpd.

Mid-states and others talk of improving operational efficiencies, that has been a key factor since the gas price drop in the US.

Roger

I wouldn't bother, shorts exist which is fair play. They won't be holding their current position in a years time like us guys.

If IOF start to deliver at a good rate in H2 on those plant builds and getting them going, then holders won't hang onto them, and you then effectively have shorts closing which are effectively buys, with investors and funds buying too. It soon turns the other way once that starts.

We could have a supply with someone exiting, but I know a fund or two have grabbed quite a few, one a largish number.

The Lance situation that arose re illness, is awful on a personal note, and that doubt sent many exiting. That was the basis for the start of the fall. Some seek to make money out of that. Uncertainty has followed, but that will all be sorted out in the coming weeks and months.

At the end of the day IOF haven't stopped their business plan they are just behind where they wanted to be, but in real terms not very far. In production terms it seems they will catch up and exceed where they would have been due to the high ppm area's turning up.

So while the shorts jump around just leave them to it. There seems to be a weird obsession on financial results, across all shares and financial reporting periods. However such results can be way behind the curve of what is going on in terms of growth. Particularly in a share looking at significant growth over the next year or two.

An exit rate of 1000mt if achieved, would mean Q1 14 production at near 10 times of Q1 this year. With plants and pods to add on as we progress.

So if IOF deliver and hit 1000- 1500mt annualised rates or more over the next 12 months, what then???. They could do more, they could do less, but it's likely to be well beyond where they are now.

[supreme mo] 06/8/2013 21:25

Freelance - is that a pun?!! :-)

[n3tleylucas] 06/8/2013 21:15

Everyone is entitled to a view, bulls, bears and neutrals. Expressing a negative opinion doesn't make anyone a lesser person, it merely helps redress the imbalance of opinion, a good thing.

This is a stock market, some think this is cheap, some think it is expensive, some think it is just right.

Stop your patronising, self-rightious nonsense ROGER MELLY, it doesn't work ... folk are not stupid. Playing to the thumbs-up gallery fools nobody, utter drivel.

[jell8] 06/8/2013 21:09

A lot of point scoring going on in here. How about people just post information and opinions backed up with reason rather than the 'my schlong is bigger than yours' show?

[roger melly] 06/8/2013 20:57

And the reason for your concern is the welfare of the average Joe who put his hard earned in IOF? Give me a break, you have no other motive for posting other than to create uncertainty and fear in decent folk who invest here by using multiple monickers to deramp....all to support your ill thought-out short positions.

Low life.

[shonny] 06/8/2013 19:51

Heading south rapidly as per my earlier prediction. ISA buyers well underwater now and it's going to get worse. I see the deluded rampers are still at it though. Enticing mug punters to part with their cash. They might as well flush it down the toilet. This is only going one way for the forseeable future. Give up rampers you've been well and truly found lacking on this one as has the management with their exaggerated predictions.

[noli] 06/8/2013 18:30

I wouldn't expect iof to release an rns on the provisionally granted permit, just in case it back fires. IOF will wait for public comment period to be over then get the full permit before an rns release. AIMHO

[freelance] 06/8/2013 18:27

Thanks again Noli. I understand that problems caused by public comment/objections on water permits are very rare. So I would hope that a provisional grant announcement would be well received by the market - much needed in the short term!