Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[engelo] 09/8/2013 21:16

superg: thanks. Think the timing of the ping will have to be September and the question is whether it is planned, coinciding with the H1 results or just inevitably materialises as IOF won't be able to hide things any longer and be honest with the market. This is what I think you are suggesting (and maybe that's exactly what Lance was thinking).

Your fav line 'assuming delivery' never been more correct and that's why I think news of decent production from I02 and I03 is critical to achieve credibility with the market. Iodine sales would be nice too of course!

monts: was trying to forecast what I think will happen, and to explain the current caution. Meanwhile agree with you that it's been overdone. Think I'm the only one with a sympathetic word for CF!

We'll see what other info they release when the CEO/CFO announcement comes out, as I suppose the content (and tone) of the RNS will have to be agreed by him.

Don't think there's a great risk of a bid atm though as bidders may feel a bit spooked too with the downbeat RNSs and imo will hold back until progress and numbers are known (and who they are negotiating with) :-) I do have nightmares though of '210p based on a generous 50% premium to the recent share price of 140!'

And agree that IOF Chem news would be welcome. That's been kept quiet for some reason but there are hints of record contracts and record months there too.

Overall very optimistic and very impatient like a few others here I suspect :-)

For the impatient (including myself) maybe CEO news next week which could start the fuse burning...

[superg1] 09/8/2013 20:44

Monts12
9 Aug'13 - 16:24 - 6828 of 6830 0 0
(premium)

Superg
In your opinion, when do you think the company will officially start releasing ppm and flow rates? Wasn't the "ping" moment supposed to be in September this year?


Re the Ping.

I couldn't quite work out the timings for the ping as it didn't make sense in terms of the roll out. I doubt they will release ppm data near term as the ppm situation is an expanding picture as new wells are sampled.

We know in recent weeks and months, they now mention Hyper ppm, and multiple sites of extremely high ppm. Previously they have said, abnormally high.

Those apparent 'upgrades' are not a case of 'letting the cat out of the bag', they are regularly finding new extremely high ppm wells. I suspect the recent hyper figure has been beaten, so now it's a case of the multiple sites, extremely high, etc.

So to the ping point-:

That could be the sudden increase in plants as others tune into the new player getting serious. Some are well aware of iof, and watch closely.

However the real potential ping that I see is a sharp jab in the kidneys for others.

E.G. If iof get the roll out going nicely with some decent BPD, very quickly they will have more iodine than the chem div needs.

We often overlook the point that their are more or less two divisions. Production and derivatives. I.E. The production div sells to the chem div, who then make derivatives and make their sales.

Once they go beyond the chem div needs, then there is the bulk sale of iodine, they have mentioned India for one. We know the US imports near 6000mt.

So if iof do get decent amounts of production going, it will mean a sudden surge in the sector, and potentially smaller, high opex, Chile mines, left with a drop in demand.

Chile have for years been oblivious to anyone outside Chile. As no-one outside that sector for many years has added to the supply pot.

So that could be part of the ping and comes in the form of lost orders.

My fave old line though, assuming delivery.

[monts12] 09/8/2013 19:16

Thanks for your reply Engelo, much of your logic is the same as my own. My thinking is that as we now have "the" patent and presumably most of the prime brine leases tied up there is a huge amount of value that's been created which has to be taken into account in any bid situation that arises and is currently ignored.
Therefore why not get up on that roof and start shouting? After all we don't want a bid coming in at such lowly prices. The assumption is that the incoming CEO will want to get a rein on things first. Uncertainty re leadership and poor dissemination of information have understandably spooked the market. That's fair enough, but once the appointment (appointments? CFO, etc) is announced I expect things to move ahead quite swiftly and more detailed numbers announced to the market, especially with regard to the chemical division, IO2 production and status of IO3 build/commissioning.

[engelo] 09/8/2013 17:43

Monts: my 2ps worth:

Original ping timescale came from Lance back in June, saying a couple of months. However probably now September if LB's logic holds, due to I02 taking time and new CEO taking time. For a real ping we need imo in ascending importance:

H1 figures
Sales Contracts
Forward view of I04 and beyond
I02/3 production rates
OPEX and CAPEX figures

Added to this IOF have said there will be 'pleasant surprises' which we have had hints of with hyperbrines and new Iosorb products edit I mean plants :-)

All this would finally wake up the instis and brokers and iodine producers round the world.

Would be nice to have I02/3 news ahead of the H1 figures, which could be late September.

Also they could issue H1 date RNS saying H1 statement will include.....

As said above, timescales need to chime in with New CEO availability/participation.

To be fair to CF, would you rather play things down a bit and give your new CEO a chance to start on the upside, or shout from the rooftops and.....

[monts12] 09/8/2013 16:24

Superg
In your opinion, when do you think the company will officially start releasing ppm and flow rates? Wasn't the "ping" moment supposed to be in September this year?

[superg1] 09/8/2013 16:16

Monts

Io2 is a great plant and should give some decent numbers as brine increases.

Clearly there could be some lucrative productive other plants too within io3 to 6.

Allowing for twists and turns per site and a number planned over the coming months, io's will simply get their number in the order they are to start up and produce.

I'm just thinking the way io2 had delays, for that one nothing else was being built, but if any io x gets delayed then one slightly further down the line would get the next number if it was online first.

All I look at is bpd and ppm. They are some very good ppm around, with abnormally high sites, extremely high and Hyper ppm wells.

The area is expanding rapidly. Sandridge have 380 wells planned this year. It's a it of a liquid situation. If higher ppm sites pop up, we could see twists and turns of where plants go.

[monts12] 09/8/2013 16:15

Freshvoice
Commissioning will take approx 1 month once the plant is built

[freshvoice] 09/8/2013 16:08

I. Thought you just said 5 weeks Noli?

[noli] 09/8/2013 15:55

fresh, to be truthful i am not that bothered about iof updating us, dont get me wrong it would be very nice indeed. For me IO#3 could be earning in as little 10 days.

[freshvoice] 09/8/2013 15:49

Noli, I didn't mean now, I just meant that we need confirmation as soon as it has been completed. Running at full bore in 5-7 weeks will suit me fine!

[noli] 09/8/2013 15:42

monts12, very true, everything to look forward to as we move to the end of 2013.

[noli] 09/8/2013 15:41

freshvoice, what do you expect, 60 day build time. Approx 1 week left on my calculations, what are you expecting? In theory we still have 5 weeks which includes commissioning.

[winton180] 09/8/2013 15:37

told yer it was goin down


mr lucas is about right



75p

[monts12] 09/8/2013 15:35

Hope so Noli....

[freshvoice] 09/8/2013 15:34

If, if ,if

We need has been done ASAP.

[noli] 09/8/2013 15:31

If the IO#3 build has gone to plan then it should be built next week, if power has been installed on site then hydro testing should start.

[angel of the north] 09/8/2013 12:43

Are those vacant spaces between lines of text to match the vacant spaces in your brain? looks stupid, IS stupid and you've no idea what you're chuntering on about. Grow Up!

[winton180] 09/8/2013 12:27

yer cant stop the fall with yer rampin mr superrramper




come on son be honest




yer goin tell the truth graham

[superg1] 09/8/2013 11:17

Having posted that it does put the future potential back into view.

In May io1 and 2 were going at .8 to .9 per month, and they also mention daily highs of over 1 mt.

We know io1 is over in Texas, and was on low bpd and not too hot, ppm..

so if they were doing .8 to .9 and over 1mt with those 2 at times, with io2 on no more than 18.7 k at the time, it shows that even with the slower start up rate they can go at annual production rates of over 300mt.

Io2 is to get more brine and we know the Miss action is gaining pace across a number of partners in the area, that iof are linked with.

So when we talk 6, 8 10 and 12 plants, all forecast for the next 17 months, then you see I worry little about the bickering and sniping. Mine is a long term view, but 12/18months is short term in investing.

At some point in that timeframe we could be getting the calculator out for the Water revenue. I don't need water to confirm my investment decision. I would be here just on the iodine alone, and without all the others potential assets and revenues.

I've never known a shares that has gems like iof hidden in it's cupboard. They are just very handy extra's that could prove lucrative.

At least four other potential resources so far, Oil, gas, Helium and water.

Unlike others there is no big spending needed or intended for any of them.

[superg1] 09/8/2013 10:23

Che

re io2 ?? Have I typed too fast somewhere?. I busy juggling some work with the odd post.

IO2 is getting some new brine and was at the time of the rns, but..... left and right hand etc.

As they say in that rns as new brine comes online io2 will build re the bpd it is getting over the coming weeks and months. Well completions are not a drawn out affair in OK as demonstrated in the Mid states report.

If they do get io2 up to 30k bpd (May figure 18.7k but dropped), then it would surely materially affect the overall output. They did achieve daily highs of over 1mt even on those levels, but that probably means io1 and 2.

Other SWD sites will have X amount already at a daily rate, we just don't know what they are yet.

It's not the number of plants, but the bpd x ppm

[joeywald] 09/8/2013 10:23

worraps

If the appointment is fairly imminent I think that would be the case.

[joeywald] 09/8/2013 10:23

worraps

If the appointment is fairly imminent I think that would be the case.

[worraps] 09/8/2013 10:06

I wonder if they'll wait until the new CEO is on board, and fully up to speed, before they issue IO2/IO3 news.....so that it's the new chap / chapess, that is the one to deliver it?

[captain_kurt] 09/8/2013 09:55

If they replaced CF with a monkey the share price would still open up 10p IMO