Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[hitsha3] 15/6/2013 15:35

Are we expecting another write up in sunday papers?

[n3tleylucas] 15/6/2013 14:47

John Dees, Reservoir/Production Engineer, Reeder Energy
Forest Dorn, President & CEO, Iofina

[hitsha3] 15/6/2013 14:26

Thanks SG, excellent post, i can leave with £5 to £7 end of the yearprice target or beyond, my personal target is £15 by next September if all goes well. I have leturally everything i've got invested in IOF(money you can afford to lose and little bit more).

[noli] 15/6/2013 13:50

This is well worth a read, its a bit of a long read but covers road traffic in Montana & ND, also our water area Roosevelt. Very interesting indeed.



This is the pdf you are looking for.
impacts to montana state highways due to bakken oil development ...

[superg1] 15/6/2013 13:50

I have a fair idea re True oil and what they have but it's early stages and nothing concrete yet, but interesting. 3 forks interest just seems to be on the up and some very good results in wells. let's just hope that oil situation migrates west to IOF's acreage. It seems their 3D data has good indications.

With so much going on in the Bakken, the initial chaos would always be there. I would imagine much of the leasing is taken for that area.

Continental have been bleating on about the 3 forks for some time and are now backed up by the USGS report. It's just a matter of time imo for interest in IOF's acreage.

The Nisku is a play that may feature but we'll just have to wait on that one.

Price targets depend on delivery, but I won't shift from £5 to £7 for the end of this year if they get io3 to 6 in place.

Just io3 up to speed secures this price imo, so I'm not too worried about slippage. The fact the intial run is in OK is exciting to me, and those watching IOF will see why in time.

You won't see them admitting it publicly, but some better placed than us talk of £15 plus late next year, assuming the roll out goes well.

I don't mention water revenue as the water side won't be run by IOF imo. There are far too many in that sector hunting for a way into ND and Montana. I don't price that in

Once the first water rights are achieved I think interest will come. Either the water side will go and be bought entirely or a JV on a far better basis than before will come with IOF as a sleeping partner.

$15m for half of the revenue, and half of Atlantis was giving it away, which I think most realise now.

A 35 billion barrel water resource, with a Unique USFW rights swap deal, on one of the hottest plays for decades in the US is a monster stroke of luck. That alone is a potential very lucrative business. The USFW have rights to over 100k acre feet in the 2 area's, much of which is never used. That's 4 million pbd, so plenty of spare.
The Fresno has a 500k bpd storage capacity, so my guess is any rights swap over time would be up to that amount. That would be on top of any IOF owned water rights that are achieved.
So in time if water rights area fully appropriated, there would be only one company that could provide more water via the rights swap.

However they really don't need to get involved in the chaos and competitiveness that will appear in that area in the years to come.


They have no need to control the water side themselves, they have the potential to be a world leader in iodine, and that is plenty enough for them to deal with.

There is a long list that want in on the water side and it's much the same re iodine.

The best one to defend imo is iodine.

Some time in the future the market and many more investors will start to get to grips with how serious the potential is.

As the business plan stands I expect IOF to be the best investment out there for the next 3/4 years. I say 3/4 years, as the amount they can achieve it that time could be stunning, and the market is only so big.

On iodine with Japan stuffed, and Chile struggling in a power/water downward spiral to 2015 then a predicted slow recovery, it's a perfect storm for IOF.

Up to io6 this year and 6 to 8 (or more) per over 2014 to 2016, gives 24 to 30 plants, with some bigger than 30k along the way perhaps.

They have clearly said 19k mt going down the drain in target area's, and I'm not misreading what they mean.

By the end of 2016 judging by demand, 4000 to 5000mt extra will be needed. IOF would probably be on 10k plus on that roll out.

The US import just under 6000mt from suppliers who high carbon footprints attached to their product.

I can see Sirocco and scm failing on a price squeeze, with Sirocco potentially going out of action due to plant issues. That's 2000mt plus.

The smaller players have the same problems re opex.

Some look at iof and comment, but it's what is going on in the industry that has made the story so great.

Some could think what about price drops. Yes they could happen, but iodine producers would go out of business and so the balance of supply demand would remain.
That factor is why analysts were so bullish about iodine supporting SQM's position. They used that supply demand and costs factor as a reason why prices would stay high.

One actually quotes there is little chance of over supply as resources are so scarce.

They all completely missed IOF but won't for much longer. IOF rolling out plants at the rate they intend to, is a massive threat to the revenue of big businesses, whether producers or end users.

How can any chemical company buying in iodine at $60 per kg for derivatives possibly compete on price with a company producing it for $15 kg and have their own derivatives div. They can easily undercut anyone on prices, and have no monster revenues to protect.

[hitsha3] 15/6/2013 12:34

SG, i am sure i have asked you this before but i have forgoten, what is youre price target on IOF, £10,15,or £25.

[hitsha3] 15/6/2013 12:32

SG, What's happening about the oil discovery?

[the librarian] 15/6/2013 12:00

Good on you superg, I had a very expensive working class education :-)

I am forever adding words to the Word dictionary that it tries to correct me upon, it is the only bit of England that we can maintain a hold on. Love it in US films when they refer to speaking English (about the only thing that makes me proud to be British)!

[superg1] 15/6/2013 11:48

I prefer maths lib, but to many prefer math, so I just call it math to conform, but back to maths now as I don't like math.

[monts12] 15/6/2013 11:44

Not sure if it's already been mentioned but IOF are sponsoring and exhibiting at the "Mississippi Lime Production & Produced Water 2013" conference in Oklahoma City later this month. All the heavyweight O&G bigwigs will be in attendance. Forest Dorn has a presentation slot:

"RE-USING PRODUCED WATER

1.45 Exploring The Viability Of Monetizing Produced Water By Re-Using It In Hydraulic Fracturing
Assessing the costs of recycling produced water for frac jobs as a viable alternative to paying for disposal
Evaluating whether the costs saved by not having to source fresh water for the frac outweigh the costs of disposal
Investigating the impact re-using produced water has on the reservoir rock to prevent negative impact on production rates
Exploring how to treat produced water to allow for use in fracs with minimum damage to the reservoir
Comparing experiences between fresh and recycled water fracs to corroborate or refute re-using produced water as an economical technique
Generate revenue to reduce disposal and water treatment costs by extracting iodine from brine streams

John Dees, Reservoir/Production Engineer, Reeder Forest Dorn, President & CEO, Iofina Energy"

Interesting reasons given to sponsor:

"A tailored sponsorship package at one of our events provides a direct, cost effective path to help you get your message out to existing or new target clients. Once we understand your specific business objectives, including marketing goals, we can leverage the power of our individual Summit brands to work to your advantage."

[monts12] 15/6/2013 11:42

reposted on main thread

[the librarian] 15/6/2013 11:25

Mathematics or maths..... bloody Americanism's :-)

[superg1] 15/6/2013 11:12

It's not so much when builds start but where they go, as we have mentioned.

Io3 could have been up and running on the Texas site by now, maybe on 120mt plus PA.

Just a month or 2 back we had no real idea of where plants were going, and personally I had hoped for at least one more going into OK of the 3 to 6 roll out.

2 of the 4 would have really have changed things. That's seems to have gone to the next 4 going there and beyond.

There is also the additional brine for io2 that should feature at some point, again I strongly believe this is down to waiting for better brines which are coming up due to the Miss play boom. Rug has pointed out the news wells around io2.

What's the point of chasing brines available, at 120 to 150 mt per unit. 4 times the capex, 4 times the employee's and higher opex.

Best to carefully select sites that can produce at much higher volumes, it's simple math.

[superg1] 15/6/2013 10:22

al

There is something about Tom that the BB seems to have missed, that's why I just keep a very casual watch on it.

As you obviously know it's all about the tech red leaf have. If that doesn't prove itself then Tom is worthless imo.

I was urged to buy it under 2p, by a very serious and well connected investor in the US. I looked at it for 2 hours and said no, and gave solid reasons imo.

It is jam tomorrow and way off revenue. I suggested he buy IOF :-). He very much likes IOF, but was heavily in Tom.

It has one little twist, that is obvious, but will probably elude most and that's the reason for a buy out possibility, maybe investors are aware,

[noli] 15/6/2013 10:18

It wont be long now imho sg, if the build started 1st june then the the crew should be moving to the IO#4 location at the end of next week.

We might get an rns Monday or Tuesday before the AGM if they have some new information they want to discuss at the AGM.

[superg1] 15/6/2013 10:12

Noli

I hear, and it was suggested at the presentation, that IOF are in recruit mode ahead of plant builds.

I.E. staff for future plants such as io3 and 4 are already trained/in training and ready to go. Obviously pre io1 and 2 they couldn't do that, plus io2 is different to io1 with changes and automation.

So the start up times and progression to full speed should be more swift depending on BPD available at any given location.

[noli] 15/6/2013 10:00

It looks iof have the plant operator, as the position is now closed.

[captain_kurt] 15/6/2013 09:33

www.prweb.com/releases/iodine_market/iodine_deficiency/prweb10834775.htm

Iodine Deficiency in Developing Countries Drives the Global Iodine Market, According to a New Report by Global Industry Analysts, Inc.

GIA announces the release of a comprehensive global report on Iodine markets. Global consumption of Iodine is projected to reach 36.8 thousand metric tons by 2018, driven by increasing demand from traditional end-use markets as well as new emerging applications.

[skasher094] 15/6/2013 08:18

Jamonit
I was in afc for couple yrs when shares were about 12pence
Have kept them on watch list last 2yrs had spike when mr Chelsea
Decided to invest but dropped back to 25/30 pence since
Massive potential if get product to market but timeline keeps moving
Much like others such as cyan,Pxs etc.
Made money on move up to early 20s with intention of revisiting maybe
But am not up to date on where they are now.

[roboben] 15/6/2013 07:51

If you're looking for -

something that's actually making money,
with a clear growth path for several years,
is the world's market leader in its field,
with products that are recognised as not simply better but also cheaper than its rivals,
good management with a tendency to understate what they have
and a tightly controlled cost structure,

it might be worth looking at SRT.

I've been watching them for years without ever being convinced that the time was right to invest. I suspect that any investment now will be well rewarded, however.

Worth a look, I think, but as ever, do your own research and make your own decisions.

I don't hold at the moment.