Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 06/8/2014 09:34

502246JMB

I did note a random post by someone here about 'the July hearing' and recall who it was, but ignored it.

I hope you are right as it would be 'nice' to get that concluded.

[mortie1] 06/8/2014 09:31

Thks SG,appreciated.

[tim3416] 06/8/2014 09:28

SG, I was wondering why their declining share price had made a sudden u turn yesterday

[superg1] 06/8/2014 09:19

RB energy (Sirocco) have released news re lithium shipped and iodine sales keeping things afloat near term. They still need funds fast.

Once more the rns seems to contradict earlier news and makes no sense at all re iodine.

They talked of plant upgrades/production suspended for lithium 2/3 weeks back, and talked of further upgrades on going, but then talk now of lithium shipped. It's probably the shipment Tewoo refused a while back. However it is technical grade not battery grade, the Tewoo deal is for battery grade.

As Tewoo paid $5 mill up front, perhaps they are accepting anything in fear of the cash problem meaning they lose the $5 mill etc, just guesswork.

Iodine is more confusing. They talk of 'forward sales' covering near term cash flow for lithium, but they are apparently sitting on an inventory of 800mt worth around $30 mill.

I take it forward sales are just the standard sales they make and any profit is covering weekly cash flow. That could get sticky as they are in winter now and H2 is the generally the slow down in the raw material sector. Obviously Cosayach, SQM and Bullmine events may change that.

RB forecast opex of $29 per kg in an rns, but if you look at their website re iodine production they have changed that to 27 to 35.

Historically they have never hit their forecast opex. The 35 upper limit leaves no room for error at current prices.

Heap leach is the best opex, I can't see their ALP ever returning.

The main point is they need a lot of cash and very soon. They may be shipping lithium but it's lithium already paid for by Tewoo long back.

As it's technical grade, they will have to supply at least 15% more than forecast

[502246jmb] 06/8/2014 09:08

SG,

The update to 15/7 was in response to an email I sent to the Montana Govt website. A Mr Price, Hearings Assistant, "corrected" the date and confirmed in his email reply that the meeting had taken place

[superg1] 06/8/2014 09:04

Mortie1

To answer that, the old prices we heard were around $1 for cold water pb and $5-$6 pb for hot, although a hot water depot would cost a lot more.

Opex found from one company (Armstrong) shows 3 cents per degree of temp rise per barrel with the standard about 70 degrees, giving opex for heating on top of extraction of $2.10.

IOF guestimate on extraction was a max of 20 cents. So maybe 20 cents opex on cold and $2.30 to $3 on hot.

Halliburton it seems will be IOf's biggest customer should they get the permit.

Here is Halliburton's recent comment on fracking dated 21st July 14 :-)



I assume IOF will use that as part of evidence of the demand. I would hope some of those emergency measures irrigation permits have been withdrawn by now, as the original laws prevent the use of irrigation rights water.

[superg1] 06/8/2014 08:52

Got bored of checking the water site and stuck to checking the water court calendar.

I'm not yet convinced that hearing happened, here are the listed ones for that day.



It could just be the admin lot being slow, and they moved a date as the June one had expired.

If it did happen it seems weird we had no rns. So I suspect it didn't happen.

Logic based on no rns, and the water court listings. I hope it did.

[mortie1] 06/8/2014 08:24

Anyone any idea of what the water rights might be worth? ballpark figure?

[superg1] 06/8/2014 08:20

Leggit

If correct the sly sods kept it out of the water calendar diary.... good move.

That's spoilt my fun re talking about the water master, but also stopped bears talking about imminent doom, as you rightly point out the decision process is not on the day and takes time.

[patrich2] 06/8/2014 08:18

Well done that man, come on SG your slipping

[leggit] 06/8/2014 08:16

The Water Right Application Status has been updated to show the Hearing took place on 15th July. The Hearing Examiner will issue a decision within 90 days ie. by Monday 13th October

[bogg1e] 05/8/2014 23:16

King and Superg, the BoD at the agm were pretty sure that IO7 would go ahead but no mention of any large plants beyond that. When the fracking stops it looks like most of the current plants will be receiving more brine than one plant can manage, so im sure the first pods will be backing up existing plants. Unless of course some higher ppm and reasonable brine volume sites are selected as well. Also if the board have been talking to the japanese it will be interesting to see how much new infrastructure, again in pod terms, is paid for by the japs in return for a guaranteed iodine supply. we may have some nice surprises in store in terms of increased production infrastructure.

[awolagain] 05/8/2014 22:57

The G wiz twins lol!

[superg1] 05/8/2014 21:50

io7 is about a site of good ppm I understand.

30k bpd = 3 pods or one plant. Pods don't need staffing and the end process can be completed at the big plants.

Pods are moveable, quicker to install.

So probably the best way forward.

All that matters is bpd x ppm, get that at optimal levels re available brine and you have your lowest opex.

It's simple but the G twins didn't quite get that.

[king_roster_iii] 05/8/2014 21:31

Bog,At the agm it was clear that io7 is a long way off. Lance was quite clear that if they do build another one it will be just one and the intimation was not for a while. And as lib so correctly said the future is mobile units. Don't think we'll see a large fixed iosorb unit dreckly.

[monty panesar] 05/8/2014 21:17

A steady rise in production=a steady rise in profits= a steady rise in share price.

Surely?

[bobsworth] 05/8/2014 19:31

Looking back at all the Hargreaves Lansdown news reports on Iofina for 2014, the new management team have certainly achieved much better press headlines to date than the old lot that were quickly shown the door on LB's return.
Although it's still early days for the new team let's hope this continues with their next RNS.

Headlines to date!

New Team
Share Price risen to 55p
Iofina sees a 98% increase in quarterly production for Q2 2014: 9 July 2014 10:28
Iofina profitable as production jumps 86% in May: 3 June 2014 10:23

Old Team
Share Price bottoms out at 23p and Lance returns
Iofina tanks as fracking hits profits: 23 April 2014 09:22
Iofina water project on the rocks after Montana denies permit: 22 April 2014 10:46
Iofina completes iodine plant but delays others: 27 March 2014 15:31
Iofina Chairman to step down on March 31st: 20 March 2014 09:42
Iofina shares fall on lower production: 29 January 2014 15:37
Iofina Chairman shows confidence after profit warning: 17 December 2013 16:16
Iofina blames sales delays for profit warning: 17 December 2013 16:16
Share Price 165p

[cyberbub] 05/8/2014 18:48

Awol, should be one day this week... an output of 40+ and notification that both IO5 and IO6 are in operation and contributing fully in August should see a jump to the next level IMO..NAI

[angel of the north] 05/8/2014 15:32

Just had email from LB - IOF are working on a 'complete refresh' of the website. this is music to my ears as I believe the web presence of any company is the 'shop window' to the World.
Looking forward to this in anticipation.

[superg1] 05/8/2014 14:36

I recommend PIs listening to this presentation..



It's about Afriag, that's not the interest, but the manner of the delivery is. One of the usual suspects (Doc holiday) tried to disrupt things, and as my kids call it, Doc got owned.. by David Lenigas.

A breath of fresh air in the way he spoke with no grey areas.

The share price is not his interest or under his control, his focus is the business.

I wish politicians were like him, then we wouldn't have all the waffle and BS that goes on.

It's well worth listening to, and the 'rat's clacker' comment is a gem.

[bogg1e] 05/8/2014 14:32

Bob, I think three are ready to go, ie site prepared, electricity and brine hook ups in place. I believe they are intended for IO~7 and 2 pods IOA and B. Still we wont hear about these in all probability until after the operational review which is sometime in Q3, probably the end of october because I assume they will want up to three months to monitor how IO#5 and 6 are performing.

[superg1] 05/8/2014 14:30

Bob

They said two sites with electricity in place ready to go were done.

Just getting electricity to a site can be $250k. In the past they have built sites then had to wait on the electricity companies.

[bobsworth] 05/8/2014 14:17

Anyone know if the 2 pad sites that were nearing construction at the time of the AGM are now complete and in keeping ahead, whether any more pad sites are planned or under construction?
TIA