Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[angel of the north] 01/8/2014 13:36

MM - sorry, but this is just meaningless, boring and repetitive.

[monkeymagic3] 01/8/2014 12:56

monkeymagic3 31 Jul'14 - 15:05 - 23204 of 23214 6 0 edit

monkeymagic3 31 Jul'14 - 12:20 - 23192 of 23203 7 0 edit

mister big 31 Jul'14 - 10:53 - 23188 of 23191 5 1

........... It would probably better to blame yourself for not looking at the fundamentals of the business, and what the management was doing .


How did you come to know what were the management were actually doing (contrary to their actual RNS output and posted "research" presumably)?


Cough, cough.............etc




Awkward now.

[rogerbridge] 01/8/2014 12:43

Super work SG..

[superg1] 01/8/2014 12:30

For reference

The Pozo Almonte area which was the subject of the recent water theft court case, has all of Cosaychs mines in it.

Negreiros, Cala cala, and Soledad.

They run on a north south line, north and south of Pozo Almonte. If I was rug you'd now have detailed map.

The Victoria mine is south of Cosayach operations.

Here is a map from the SEIA site showing the Cala cala Cosaych location




I've picked that one as it's next to Pozo Almonte in the map and easy to spot.

Pan out and look about 20km south. The green area in the Tamarugal reserve which Cosayach have destroyed part of (prosecuted).

Drag the map down and track the north south road, about 60 km south of the reserve and you will see the words 'El Tamarugal province' zoom in with the e as the centre and the Neuve Victoria SQM mine reveals itself.

So Cala cala water theft is said to be affected the forest and SQM water rights 80km away, as claimed by SQM.

In theory then it seems they may be affected by the depletion of the aquifer over a wide area.

So that is why I think there is possibly more (as yet undeclared by SQM) as to why they closed the Iris plant at that site.

[gadolinium] 01/8/2014 11:28

Some good points in the above posts Super,

With regard to your point about SQM water rights being compromised by Cosayach's illegal water extraction. The July issue of Industrial Minerals contained similar speculation by an informed source. See my post 23020.

The August issue should be interesting.

[superg1] 01/8/2014 10:18

Pure speculation, but the closure of the iris plant didn't quite make sense as it is at Neuve Victoria.

"We produce iodine at our Pedro de Valdivia, Maria Elena and Nueva Victoria facilities. During 2013, iodine was produced by extracting it from the solutions resulting from the heap leaching of caliche ore at María Elena and Nueva Victoria, including the Iris facility as part of the Nueva Victoria facility, and from the vat leaching of caliche ore at the Pedro de Valdivia facilities. Production of iodine at the Iris plant was stopped during October 2013"

Note Maria Elena, that closed as a mine which is called El Toco

"María Elena
The mining operations using heap leaching were temporarily suspended in October 2013. The María Elena mine and facilities, named El Toco,"


Note those lines are buried in 359 pages of the annual report form (20-F), not the year end financial results. those forms come out well after financial results and long after analysts have done their bit. I doubt analysts go through the 20-F.

El Toco is easy to understand as it was a high cost mine.... but why close the Iris plant at Victoria.

I'm now wondering is the Cosayach illegal extraction and depletion of the aquifer have forced SQM to reduce production there.

Ben Isaacson of Scotia bank did ask why SQM had dropped customers. His view was if they were so well placed why not squeeze the others and 'Clean up the market a bit'

A good question..... and if you recall the SQM response was "Um er, um er, blah blah, um er"

Perhaps the Cosayach theft of their water had left them with reduced water availability. If Cos killed off a forest by nicking it, then that means the aquifer is depleted as that is what the forest relies on.

SQM next round of questions come on 28th August. It should be interesting. If I can get hold of Ben I and give him the 'hidden' details, I will.

[typo56] 01/8/2014 10:17

Thanks again superg1 for your information. I'm clearly clueless and naive and in need of a lot of help. However, even I'm not sure I should heed the advice of someone who started a bulls only thread for IOF on 21 May 2103!

[rogerbridge] 01/8/2014 09:46

Interesting.

[1madmarky] 01/8/2014 09:40

Very good point SG. Potentially a lot worse than previously thought for SQM in that area. Just a case of wait and see

[superg1] 01/8/2014 09:13

Something I hadn't considered re SQM.

If Cosayach did their illegal extraction in the same area as SQM which destroyed part the forest, then the relevant aquifer they have rights in is depleted.

Thought process prompted by finding a report in the same link re the Cosayach one above. It seems there was strong opposition to the Neuve Victoria mine re the water in the area.

Iris gets a mention. SQM recently closed a plant they call iris. The life of the mine is now listed by SQM as 7 years.



The Pampa Hermosa mining project considers 200 square kilometers of new tasks, the extension of the Indus-trial Victoria and New Old South, as well as the growth of Camp Iris Areas. The project life is estimated at 30 years and the investment is U.S. $ 1,033 mil-lion to the stage of closing. The project plans to increase the production of iodine in the Nueva Victoria in 6,500 tons per year, and the construction of a new plan-ta to produce 1,200,000 tons per year of sodium nitrate and potassium nitrate Industrial area in the South Viejo.La Aymara community, local residents and farmers are especially concerned about the effects this project may have on the collapse and sado river Loa, considered as the initiative to capture up to 60 liters per second from Bitter Creek, a situation noted by the General Water Directorate (DGA), which raised a number of objections to the initiative. Additionally, water is extracted from the Salar de Llamara aquifer, part of

which will be used to inject arti  cial

gaps-mind in order to mitigate the impact of the activity minera.La major concern of the Aymara community is the disappearance of the mile-disciplinary oasis Quillagua and forced migration of its inhabitants due to the drought. Moreover, the continuous extraction of water from Salar de Llamara affect gra-

briefly biodiversity  ora and fauna

land and water area, affecting tourism development plans that were planned for the area. While the Water Directorate (DGA) and the National Association for De-velopment Indian (CONADI) filed objections, the project was approved in September 2010. Regard, the communities reported the existence of irregularities in the evaluation process, especially on indigenous na consultation and consent for the project.

[superg1] 01/8/2014 08:54

Going on the above report and the recent 38 well closure, I'm wondering if the Cosaych illegal extraction recently (now stopped), was having a far greater impact than we thought.

Pre 2011 they were on 6000mt rates, then 35 wells were closed, knocking them down to under 2000 mt.

The figures roughly stack up as those illegal wells back them covered around 60% of their production.

The 38 wells recently closed were in the same area as 2011.

So to me logic suggests they had headed back towards their 6000 mt yearly rate.

That would explain why the price came under such pressure when the facts shows others had pulled back.

Thus in theory the Cosayach recent news of 38 wells closed may well mean the pendulum will swing further than first thought.

Obviously they will have built up an inventory so the actual impact of the well closures gets delayed by months as the inventory empties.

So a case of keeping an eye out for any iodine price moves as we go through the year.

There is a risk of course that Cosayach with the family needing $70 mill, will off-load what they have cheaply. That may of course have already been done.

Wait and see time.

[superg1] 01/8/2014 08:35

Some old Cosayach stuff just popped up.

The interesting part is that it quantifies the amount of water Cosayach were extracting illegally. They were allowed 30 litres per second but were extracting 400 litres per second. 35 wells were closed back then.

In the recent round of prosecutions 38 wells were closed. Given the huge amount of water they were using from 35, you can see how significant the impact should be on them. It also conforms the killing off the forest rumour mentioned recently by Gad.

Furthermore and probably a very important point, the water use demonstrates just how many the pending 150 litres per second rule will affect.

Putting the 400 litres against SQM, SQM have rights to 570 litres per second in that area. SQM were the driver for the recent prosecution where Cosayach were stealing their water, given that 38 were closed as a result, it seems likely Cosayach were stealing 400 litres per second and would explain why they were able to rapidly increase production and so causing a dip in the iodine price by illegal actions. Thinking outside the box, I wonder if SQM will sue them for loss of revenue, I don't know if that is viable, but if SQM can they will.

If Cosayach were up to 400 litres per second recently but are still allowed the 30 then their porduction at Cala Cala and Negreiros (60% of production) is down by 93% ish.

Obviously since that time a German bank has won a case against them where the Cosayach family have to pay $70 mill

Details via translate as below



In 2006, with complaints against the mining company Coyasach by the illegal extraction of water in the Pampas Tamarugal to operate its mine started iodine. According to the surrounding communities, the company drew about 400 liters per second, with your permission indicated a maximum of 30 liters, a situation that would have increased drought in the area. Also, installation of pipes in the Na-tional Pampa aquifers, Book-nuido have decreased mass of the forest area.

After years of complaints and  scalizacio

-tions, 2009 judicializó the case. Two years later, in November 2011, the Supreme Court condemned Cosayach by illegal extraction of groundwater from 35 wells and environmental damage that such action generated (due role 5826-2009). In this regard, the judgment states: "The basin of Pampa aquifers is particularly vulnerable ecosystem given the scarcity of water and other components which depend

[superg1] 31/7/2014 23:02

The stats for you

97% long on IG.

Last week on a short chart 1.3 mill short, which now looks to have dropped by about 100k.

Short tracker nothing showing for any fund.

The cross reference of IG with the short chart suggests the amount of shorts went down and at the end of July. It looks like about 1.2 mill short now.

So no the 3% in IG is nothing like you are trying to suggest. You know how big the short is, it's you.

[superg1] 31/7/2014 22:50

Typo

re


"Why do you think IG would take shorts on IOF last week, but not now? I suppose you'll say they're protecting their clients' interests!"

A bit of a giveaway that one.

So you shorted it lower down and call us the ones with the jitters lol.

Good luck.

[superg1] 31/7/2014 22:48

If you want to go short go short, but maybe you are but lower down.

Obviously the recent balance on IG has swung far to the short side (your claim), so much so the share price has gone up 20%, very worrying for such heavy shorting as the expanded shares in issue were snapped up plus plenty on top.

In other words your assumptions are probably spurious BS.

Last time I looked there were 1.3 mill short which is a drop in recent times.

Perhaps you are a friend of, or the fund manager that took a short punt lower down.

You are the one that is jittery on a rising price looking like breaking out, hence your desperation and waffle in the BB about the balance on IG.

PIs and others are waiting for updates nowadays pre buying decisions, someone suggested that the July production was thought to be good, that's not my finding, I have no clue what the production is other than the first part of July looked very good as per the last rns and that at the end of July the price has risen well off recent lows, and stood up to traders selling today.

Is that an indicator of good news??. I have no idea, but chart folk say the chart forecasts news.

Get your bet on quickly as due to W/E timing, there is a fair chance the production update could come out early next week.

There isn't a lot really riding on it, as we have had 2 good months and io5 and 6 very near, or working.

[superg1] 31/7/2014 17:25

Well after a 20% plus rise in recent times off the low, those trading on buys from mid late 40's have pressed the sell button, but interestingly and unusually for IOF, it has held so far, with some happy to take them off their hands.

Maybe we are in for a good update for July, with io5 and 6 ready to go.

[monkeymagic3] 31/7/2014 15:05

monkeymagic3 31 Jul'14 - 12:20 - 23192 of 23203 7 0 edit

mister big 31 Jul'14 - 10:53 - 23188 of 23191 5 1

........... It would probably better to blame yourself for not looking at the fundamentals of the business, and what the management was doing .


How did you come to know what were the management were actually doing (contrary to their actual RNS output and posted "research" presumably)?


Cough, cough.............etc

[mister big] 31/7/2014 14:56

Ah shame - it's a harsh works out there !
( short french bonds - my ig index account is filling up !)

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 31/7/2014 14:40

No, the point is about poster hypocrisy, and it's not subtle. Anyway let's just accept that people are fickle eh. Now, when do we expect the next funding here?

[crosseyed] 31/7/2014 14:24

gadolinium, LOL :}

[mister big] 31/7/2014 14:24

Very funny !

[mister big] 31/7/2014 13:58

The point is you can't offload 18% of the company to pi through a bulletin board !
Anyway - advise is free in this case.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 31/7/2014 13:50

This is the IOF thread not STM. Why are you saying my comment is ridiculous? I am saying if you had come onto THIS thread saying IOF was too high WHEN you started shorting IOF the posters on here wouldn't have been so charitable (to you).