Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[mister big] 01/4/2014 09:52

iofa

I'm having a lazy morning! (kids half term) and I must say this is fun with a cup of coffee. I don't get your point on paper losses. an investor must have conviction and ignore the crowd. At £2 a shares the company was the same as it is now at 52p , just perception has changed. ennismore were correct in their assumption that this was over priced at over £1.5, they acted. At 52p , its a roaring buy because the fundamentals are unchanged.
Family finances should not be put in a position where factors beyond your control cause a problem.
Behind my desk is a picture of 1 share in berkshire hathaway with a $5 dollar note signed by warren and charlie, i worked for berkshire in insurance many moons ago.

i suggest as bed time reading berkshire hathaway annual results start back in early sixties - the best stuff ever written on investment.

shorts are not the enemy but the irrational investor.

As Buffett says be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when people are greedy. The run to £2 plus was not based on fundamentals but greed!!!

[festario] 01/4/2014 09:50

Mister B,
Apologies for my 'welcome' last night, but you understand we see a lot of fantasists, rampers, de-rampers and trolls on here.

Now, I wonder if you noted my questions to you last night (11.45pm) regarding a cheap takeout, or possible MBO?

Also, please don't take this the wrong way, but the AIM market makes one cynical I suppose. So,I can't help mulling over this thought. Did your broker advise you to come to this board following your recent purchases as he knew it would have an immediate positive effect on the price? Thereby making say a quick 15%, then dump them again?
I wonder what your new target price might be? Genuine questions.

[superg1] 01/4/2014 09:50

iofra

There is only so much supply, and the churn has been relatively huge.

So logic suggests Ennis would want to close while stock is available.

There are a few shares that I'd like to buy some, but very low amounts moves the price, and it's pointless trying to get involved, as a PI selling £10k's worth can move the price 5% (daftville).

As each day passes the stock available will drop. If MB or associates decided to wipe out what's left of the loose stock, the price would rise. When shares rise PIs buy and so on.

So as Titus and Scrut often say, it's not so much about the price you buy/sell at but the timing of the deal.

I can see one share where it seems less than 5% of the shares are available to play with, so if that share got busy with PI buying in the way they do on others it would probably double in a day.

I keep watching out for Tara to spot it and do one of those posts. To me that's the way He/she works.

Find a tight supply share, that has the hype factor re what it has etc, then push it.

I tipped ATUK (now cloudbuy) not having a clue the shares were tight, it took off 50% in no time.

CEO said £50 mill in 3 years (daft comment). Tara and co picked up on it and took it from the 6 to 8p area to 60p.

Oh yes, thanks for that guys, but that wasn't the intent, it genuinely looked under-priced for what it had.

There are a few quiet ones like that now, some need funding imo. Some have a little interest some are devoid of all interest, but they have some very interesting potential. One is up 50% but I'm sure it will need funding shortly.

[goofy1] 01/4/2014 09:49

Iofra, yes. Redo your research and ask yourself would you buy at this level. The investors who are short will be doing just that. Stocks get oversold and overbought all the time. Your experience curve should already be telling you that.

[iofra] 01/4/2014 09:43

goofy1 - easily said when you appear to be new to the share and haven't had the experience curve of the past eighteen months.

[goofy1] 01/4/2014 09:39

Iofra you seem to be describing a pretty smart investor. Look forwards. That smart investor is apparently now long.

[iofra] 01/4/2014 09:34

I welcome mr big's input and his re-investment because of the information he brings but and there's always a but.
I have to go along with Netley on this one.
There has been much castigation of Ennismore and their shorting (and tactics) and how when they buy back the share price will rocket. Yet mr big shorted to what appears the same extent, helped drive the share price down, assisted in causing many to have real and paper losses that have damaged family finances and relationships and now has bought back without the share price rocketing.

[superg1] 01/4/2014 09:34

Taking shroder's point on production that's relevant too, but that's where delivery comes in, and it's a work in progress.

The smaller Chile mines should be glad IOF stuttered, as they would be stuffed this year, that event may yet happen.

The lower the price stays the less cash they have. If the 150 litres per second rule comes in, how are they going to fund seawater.

E.G. for Sirocco the cost is $50 mill for SQM $250 mill. Cosayach would surely be $50 mill plus.

Such events mean opex up due to more power (pumping stations). More power demand = power prices up as the power infrastructure is poor. Much of the power is hydro-power and they have water shortages and drought.

Tax is going up.

Tax freebie ending.

Carbon tax coming in.

Costs spiralling.

So on the circs of Chile if yes I do think iodine prices will bottom out and rise this year and into 2015. My figure would be $60 per kg within 2 years, some far better placed than me think higher.

150 litre rule and other factors may speed the price rise up.

We are unlikely to see a rapid strengthening of the peso imo, but the copper price it seems will be the driver there.

[mister big] 01/4/2014 09:32

i meant iodine market!! - lol, before I'm carted off to the takeover panel!!

[verymaryhinge] 01/4/2014 09:26

being a low cost producer is always good, sometimes is bloody key.

[rogerbridge] 01/4/2014 09:25

In for a few more, thank you.

[noli] 01/4/2014 09:24

mister big, i like your james bond theme.

[mister big] 01/4/2014 09:22

superg 1

I'm not regretting come on here, since the chile side of it was a gap in my knowledge - clearly if production in chile falls away short term it might help iofina with iodine prices since they are so small they won't move the market.
I wasn't aware of the chilean political situation.

On a james bond theme - perhaps it would be better to corner the iofine market...

I guess this is a tiny global market and demand / supply changes are quite important. iofina is a low cost producer and therefore its all to the good.

[rhwillcol] 01/4/2014 09:15

Thanks superg1 - great post, with which I totally concur.
Edit: Ansana - "there is nothing wrong in taking stock" - I
agree - Mr Big has just gone and done that :))

[superg1] 01/4/2014 09:11

rhwillcol

Mate of CF and says no problems with cash, dilution etc. a point a few has already posted as some of them spoke to IOF

TW and others claim dilution, bail out and so on, but declare the company won't talk to them.

There has been a rumour that someone was buying 2.5 mill since Friday then MB appeared with the same figure.

There are some interesting lines in his posts that mean not a lot to the oblivious, but add significantly to the existing rumours for others.


All the iodine drop does is make it very difficult in Chile, IOF haven't really got off the ground yet, and they it seems can happily go along at prices lower than this, whereas Chile can't.

If the prices were high now, it would be just open season in Chile to expand on iodine.

The key point for me is the logistics of the likes of SQM moving to increase production. Once you dump 500/600 staff or more and close mines, it is no quick or easy task to recruit such staff and restart mines etc.

Chile has a skills shortage so once you let staff go you are unlikely to get them back.

That's half the cost problem, they have to pay high wages to get the right staff. The mining sector is short of skilled staff, so big companies pay good wages, then others go on strike re their pay, the mining companies are then held to ransom as they know re skilled staff shortages, and so the cycle goes on of spiralling costs.

We should listen to Erik

"I am going to die in this industry; I don't see myself anywhere else." -Miner Erik Moreno, whose salary has tripled in two years

[freddievas] 01/4/2014 09:09

VMH...Time's running out. LOL!

[ansana] 01/4/2014 09:09

There is nothing wrong with taking stock, a review, get everything working efficiently and effectively and show the market just how good the tech is. Get a new Chairman in then decide where next. How it plays out with their competitors will help to determine where they go next. At the moment IOF are waiting for the red tape to be signed off 4/5, water perhaps even a new chairman and perhaps there is a surprise as well after all IOF have a great many assets to develop so it's a fair assumption.

[mister big] 01/4/2014 09:05

superg 1

i believe what you say is correct, my feeling is that the tree is close to being shaken out. I think we will experience a nice short seller squeeze in this company.

A

[noli] 01/4/2014 09:02

LSE have pulled the sells or they have finished.

[shroder] 01/4/2014 08:59

Thanks for the detailed response superg1 31 Mar'14 - 21:03 - 17948 of 18014 4 1

I can see your logic and thought process but this follows production output rather than actual demand.

That said, it's still a very interesting company which I continue to follow.

[rhwillcol] 01/4/2014 08:54

mister big: very happy to see you here. Many of us have a lot
invested in this company. Thank you for providing re-assurance.

[superg1] 01/4/2014 08:54

Mister B

I have a fair idea which insti's are off. BR were out before this recent big churn so not them, a largish holder was also out last week. So as you say the bite will come at some point and the more churn now, the harder it will get to close the shorts.

That brings me onto a general question that the city folk among you may be able to answer.

Obviously a large holder has loaned out stock for the short.

They can recall the stock at any point. So if the fund with the stock on loan is exiting completely, does that then mean they will call in the loan stock to complete the exit.

That then forces the short to close their position and buy the stock back.

I'm all ears on that point, I don't know how that scenario works.

But on another point there has been so much churn, that it may soon become obvious which holder has the stock on loan.

My best guess would be L and G, but it is a guess on a process of elimination.

[phoenixs] 01/4/2014 08:46

I'm just waiting for Odd Job to step into the fray!

[verymaryhinge] 01/4/2014 08:42

If the Bokkers are still selling and 'Blunstone's 2nd' have not started buying it'll be pretty hard for them when the former are finished.

The B side to Colin's 1972 UK number 45 could just be rather prophetic.

[uppompeii] 01/4/2014 08:37

mister big, yes I agree, there are more positive signs now than at the time of the over anticipation last year. Not worried about that as I made some decent money on the way, things are now positioned though that the company cannot put a foot wrong (though I've said that before) but that may be a good time to re-enter as you have.
I may be a little more risk averse so 40, 45 or 60 65, all good to me.