Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[n3tleylucas] 31/3/2014 15:46

Problem with 3 & 6 digs is that cash-flow doesn't pay-off the loan, and share price may not breach lowered conversion.

I'm still baffled as to why BOD didn't place 5m shares @ 200p when share price was 250p.

That debt once looked tiny, now it's a ticking time bomb representing too large a % of current MV for my comfort.

[naphar] 31/3/2014 15:39

Funnily enough cross, after my last post, I was asking myself what H2 production I thought we could expect, and came up with 140mt, anything less than which I might find slightly disappointing.

[crosseyed] 31/3/2014 15:36

naphar,

You are quite right. It is not at all odd:{

Actually, I have quite a detailed spreadsheet worked out on a monthly basis, so that sort of detail is certainly taken in. Still a work in progress though, pending some hard information.

For what it's worth, I have modelled H2 IOsorb production of 142.7 mT plus a further 30 mT from re-cycling, on top of 62.5 mT plus 30 mT re-cycled in H1. Daily production in the 17/12/2013 RNS from the IOsorb plants was indicated at >1mT/day or about 30mT/mth, an exit rate of 360mTpa.

c

[diggulden] 31/3/2014 15:35

You going long then Netters? ;)

[n3tleylucas] 31/3/2014 15:31

Sterling digs;

[rhwillcol] 31/3/2014 15:26

Che7win: I think I might join you!

[naphar] 31/3/2014 15:20

Cross eyed
Regarding this comment in you post above:
"That would imply lower expenditures than during 2012. Rather odd!"

Did you remember to factor in that they were buying in most of their iodine used in the chem division during 2012 and produced much of their own during 2013? Of course, we only know they produced about 62mt from IO1&2 in H1, no idea I don't think of how much they produced in H2, but it all makes a difference.

[jointer13] 31/3/2014 15:14

che7win...I would also celebrate if that happens.

[crosseyed] 31/3/2014 15:07

Bogg1e, Thanks. I take it that those figures are on the conservative side ;}

frog1,
Thanks and sorry not to have recalled your earlier post on cash levels.

Looking back at the RNS of 17/12/2013, whilst it stated that:
Overall revenue in 2013 is likely to be comparable to 2012 levels. This is due to expected 2013 shipments at Iofina Chemical now being delayed into 2014.

It also stated:
Considering the lower revenue expectations, EBITDA excluding share option charges, will likely be similar to 2012 levels.

That would imply lower expenditures than during 2012. Rather odd!

Allowing for deferral of some revenues from 2013 into 2014 from IOC (which would therefore augment cash quite quickly (but that is an aside as my query related to end of 2013), my estimate for y/e cash is about $8-9 million (v your $7 million), so not too big a difference. I have allowed for loan interest (and also received deposit interest at 2% pa on sitting capital) and development capital of $5 million on IO#4-5 all falling within 2013.

Thanks for your posts which are always well thought out. Like you, I would welcome some solid figures rather than having to squeeze out whatever is to be had from every RNS nuance.

c

[diggulden] 31/3/2014 15:05

Cheers Netley. £ or $?

[cyberbub] 31/3/2014 15:05

LOL rhwillcoll !

[che7win] 31/3/2014 15:05

I'll be killing the fatted calf if he comes back.

[meadow2] 31/3/2014 14:53

The last thing I'm looking for is Lance coming back. It might even induce me to sell up at my fairly large loss! What with 'pings', false hopes and the like, I want him to spend much more time recuperating.

[roger melly] 31/3/2014 14:45

Hello hello, is news coming I wonder? Come back Lance!

[n3tleylucas] 31/3/2014 14:28

Well diggs, think 5 & 10 are optimistic. I'm going 3 & 6 bud.

[diggulden] 31/3/2014 14:23

What do YOU think N3tley?

[crosseyed] 31/3/2014 14:21

rhwillcol, Superb:}

[rhwillcol] 31/3/2014 14:06

The Common Nettle: Urtica dioica can be a troubling weed, but only if given unwarranted attention. It does not harm the crop. The use of herbicides such as 2,4-D and Glyphosate are effective control measures, or alternatively if simply ignored, then they will wither.

Edit: if taken as tea infusion (not advised), then ensure that this is filtered.

[n3tleylucas] 31/3/2014 13:48

So around £5m ptp 2014 & £10m ptp 2015?

Is that broadly what folk think?

[swiftnick] 31/3/2014 13:29

Frog1,Don't forget the interest on the loan.$15m @ 6.5% = $975k per annum (reducing to 6% and $900k pa under the new arrangements).

[alphacharlie] 31/3/2014 13:20

People's humour prevails I see - excellent rhwillcol - green shoots of recovery then barring a late frost in the near future

[roger melly] 31/3/2014 12:32

Uppompeii
what's any of this got to do with Manchester Utd?

[uppompeii] 31/3/2014 12:28

Did he mention manure anywhere?