Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 31/3/2014 09:28

Quite incredible posts over the weekend regarding IOF on the other thread, supported by the naive.

If the market doesn't see what's going on regarding manipulation, then it needs spelt out.

I would be the first to say that the market here got carried away with the roll out last year, expecting everything to go like clockwork, something that concerned me last year and which I spelt out a number of times.

The main risk is the iodine price, but that has come to pass now and is reflected in the share price.

However, pessimism now abounds, some of it justified but it doesn't reflect the underlying business and the pendulum has swung the other way.
That's the way Mr Market works. He comes knocking every day, offering to buy or sell IOF shares at a price. Shareholders can take up his offer or tell him not today. Right now Mr Market is very panicky, he is irrational and gifting shares that I for one have been snapping up.

The shorters are looking for a way to close out, other articles have been published to try and give one last push for the shorters, they are hoping the nervous sell and they can close out on the back if it.
That is a good sign to me.

I have always remained skeptical of others posts, why they are posting and their motivation.

The business I own here is strong, the model is working and the good thing for me is there is much to improve.

When I went researching last December, talking to the company, talking to fellow shareholders, and doing independent research, I found out normal teething issues that any young growing company has. I found out a management and operations team that is learning the ropes and improving a young business that has made mistakes but which is learning from it.
I also found out a model that is working and the highlight for me, there is plenty of optimisation they can do which WILL transform the current plants output.

The business is already working on improvements to operations.

I read the Numis note with interest and was dismayed, because it had so many inaccuracies in it. It treated IOF as another run of the mill iodine extraction company using the tried and tested blowing out method. It doesn't and I know it doesn't, the process uses a different and unique method that I am not going to publicise here.

I researched other technologies such as Drake and found them to be for another completely different area and not even a threat. I chuckled at the bears on that one.

Our process is unique and world class.

I don't care what the share price does, as long as the business is progressing. The business has moved from 0 to over 7 Mt per week from three plants and I know that management are excited about the prospects for IOF.
I know they have been honest with me about the challenges they are facing and that has given me confidence to invest more.

I know that Chilean producers are in a mess and curtailing operations whilst they watch us expand.

I know from communication with the company and experts that iodine prices will be a lot higher in 18months with margins of $50 per kg rather than our current $20kg. I for one won't be looking back and kicking myself at the prices I missed.

I know that there is no cash funding issues and current iodine production is going very well. You wouldn't think we had two more plants about to go live and about to throw off 1 MT extra per day (my estimate).

The bears know this of course, they also know that the market looks forwards, not backwards and a share recovers before there is any reason to do so.

Just look at Flyb, it has tripled in the last few months with nothing in the business to show why, in fact they have raised more than their market cap in shares and still risen.
Main reason: a new experienced Easyjet manager taking charge.

That reminds me, what do the bears think WILL happen when further experienced directors/managers are announced (note the plural)?

The share price right now doesn't register any upside or good news at all, it doesn't register that 100% growth expected in iodine production between quarter one and two or the ongoing growth coming in the second half.

Current run rate on 3 plants 365MT, a tripling of production in the next quarter and a share price on the floor.

The shorters are greedy and want the last nervous shareholders out so they can close out at maximum profit. If you sell, do it for reasons of need, not of panic.

I can't think of a better opportunity in the market right now DYOR - I have.

[rhwillcol] 31/3/2014 09:23

The remaining time available for shorters to close seems to be quickly diminishing. Maybe only a few more days at most? With several million to buy back, and imminent company news on more than one front, the boot is now fairly and squarely on the other foot. The over-active "other" thread suggests only a "short" window of opportunity left. For us LTH, we just sit back, relax, and smile :)

[naphar] 31/3/2014 09:14

Ammons
hurricane said it starts this week, he never said today

[ammons] 31/3/2014 07:46

Yet another false dawn Hurricane?

[nellyb] 31/3/2014 07:46

superg. Worraps should be let out of the sin bin.

[noli] 31/3/2014 07:45

I get the feeling 2014 will be a fantastic year for IOF, forget the share price at the moment, 6 plants to be firing soon, mobiles on the way. We still have oil/gas/helium/water and the atlantis field for the bod to go at.

[meadow2] 31/3/2014 07:43

Let's not get carried away just yet!

[nellyb] 31/3/2014 07:39

hurricane, hope you are right this time!

[karmastuartra] 31/3/2014 04:53

Superg1,thanks for posting the drnc website,very interesting and reassuring .
Looks to me like a 15 granted 3 denied ratio.
Iofina would have done their homework and tested the water(excuse the pun)with the bureau in advance,so confident on this outcome.

[festario] 31/3/2014 00:16

SuperG, please unban Worraps, I feel it is wrong to have frozen her out, you are bigger than that. Unless I have missed something??

[hurricane.] 30/3/2014 23:39

The Iofina fight back starts this week. Starting with a very nice surprise or two.

[superg1] 30/3/2014 22:55

Here you go for those that want to read



click hearing index and you get the hearings and decisions for the last 40 years.

Just literally scanned them and the last 12 show 10 granted, some with conditions.

2 not granted.

One says because the water not proved as legally available. IOF recently announced that it was confirmed in the meeting that water is legally available.

For the other the applicant failed to turn up.

So for what reason would IOF fail at a hearing. Hearings are not common and on the face of it, the bureau would still end up awarding the permit at a hearing if it went that far.

[superg1] 30/3/2014 22:40

Oh just spotted some comms to me re

along the lines of 'already threatening the DNRC with legals' ?????

Blooming muppet, it's a standard process a IOF did was say if they deny the permit they will take it to a hearing. They could have also said, if they deny the permit they are not going to bother contesting it.

They were just updating the market, not threatening the bureau.

The facts is water is legally available, the engineering is signed off, they have the land lease and all rights of way sorted and have the beneficial use sorted as under water law, with the letters of intent, which is standard procedure to obtain a permit

So why the hell wouldn't they challenge it if the bureau said no. ???

The water law is heavily in their favour.

Can I remind you all of the news article on the web and can be viewed on a news channel.

The locals were up in arms re a farmer selling well water to the oil producers as it was the same aquifer that they get their domestic water from. They were worried about depletion

Bob Shaver (water div head) basically said.

If an applicant meets all the criteria (that would mean water available, beneficial use identified) then by law the water bureau HAS to award the permit.

Bureaus can't just pick on someone saying, 'not giving it to them'. If they meet the basic criteria, they have to award it.

The water is declared as legally available in the recent rns. In other words there is enough allocation left for the relevant river basin to award the permit.

So of course IOF would take it to a hearing if they said no, as it would appear the bureau has no right under law to refuse it.

many hearings end up with the award of the permit.

So if it's that what a stupid comment

[orslega] 30/3/2014 21:32

see N3 appearing and some newbies posting, unsubstantiated scaremongery, re Water....so that tells me, not rocket science that Ennismore on final push before closing short, hopefully greed will lessen their profit.....

[n3tleylucas] 30/3/2014 20:33

sandbag,

Give me your pre-tax profit est's for 2104 & 2015 please.

No need for waffle, 2 numbers please.

[bobsworth] 30/3/2014 20:31

IS THE US GOVERNMENT STOCKPILING IODINE IN PREPARATION FOR FUKUSHIMA MELTDOWN?

Came across this worrying article. Not sure if it has any bearing on Iofina

[sandbag] 30/3/2014 19:43

Napoleon,

I was at the presentation last year and the thing that impressed me most was when Lance said words to the effect that they reserved the right to change their plans at any time. If they felt more money was to be made by a change of direction they would do it. I like that. It's all about making profits.

[naphar] 30/3/2014 19:12

Napoleon

With the chem division apparently doing very well this year, it may be near time to add a shift. I'll leave the company to judge on that one. They may prefer to move production of some of the simpler derivatives to IO2, thus freeing up capacity in the factory for additional more complex processing.

I don't know how much the low iodine price will help though, I would expect new contracts to reflect the lower iodine price.

[cyberbub] 30/3/2014 18:52

Bounced off 50p twice intraday... an encouraging sign for longs IMO... though I don't have a crystal ball, nor does anyone else...

[napoleon 14th] 30/3/2014 18:38

If I had capex to spend, I'd invest & build in the chems biz as well.
With half-price iodone, a push in the dérivatives market means they can use that price advantage to invest in high-profit niches.
IMO selective marketing expertise in fine chems could achieve this,
& create selected market dominance in high margin dérivatives?

I'd like to think that the strategic review will yield a working mobile so we can concentrate on getting some mobile units up & running for high yield/low production costs.

The cheaper we can make it, the more profit there'll be in it...

[woodpeckers] 30/3/2014 18:37

Well the shorters are making it very easy for any new readers to spot their posts this afternoon. Desperation and lack of intellectual content are blazingly obvious after the excellent informed posts I enjoyed reading this morning!