Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[warrensearle] 19/12/2013 09:49

SG you simply cannot be surprised at the reaction here you post all day every day and then every time the price collapses you disappear (but still have time to post on other threads)On FUM you were quick to tell people to get out in the 100s and when it pulled back you claimed a great victory and foresight On IOF the price collapsed from 220 to 80 odd and not a sniff of humility - it's all investors fault for selling and not the company's dire management performance. Iof may come good it may not but have some humility remember You are not the Messiah (as some see you) you are a very naughty boy (for dissappearing)

[worraps] 19/12/2013 09:41

che7win, thank you for post 13509, a breath of fresh air, and informative in a balanced way. The effort you are putting in is much appreciated.

[tsmith2] 19/12/2013 09:31

I'd be happier seeing the dirs buying aggressively than SG

[che7win] 19/12/2013 09:15

The RNS is clearer to me regarding the optimisation:

" The Group's IO#1 iodine extraction pilot plant based on Iofina's WET® IOsorb™ technology ("IO#1"), recently celebrated its successful first year anniversary. This combined with the continued production at IO#2, which recently underwent extensive planned maintenance to refresh high levels of iodine production in the tower, and completion of the first digitally designed plant, IO#3, confirms the rollout and successful implementation of the Group's corporate strategy. Although not fully optimized, the three combined plants are averaging in excess of 1,000 kilograms of iodine per day, satisfying the Group's internal iodine demand while building inventory for future outside sales."

That maintenance on IO#2 is the deep cleaning of the tower. That is what they are working on to minimise and that is (at least partly) what they mean by optimisation of the plants. If they can minimise downtime on the tower deep cleaning, they will have a higher production rate going forward. They are looking at ways of doing that.

The above plays into the 1000MT average. Going by what matrix posted about plants being offline, that plays into the lower average than we expected on the three plants.

So yes, I think this is something they can improve vastly on going forward.


Looking at the current valuation, I can't help thinking its a great price.
Unfortunately not for me, I'm fully invested here, I'm kicking myself I didn't sell over 200p, but then I didn't know what I know now.
Had I done so, I would be loading up at this price.

3 plants and recycling giving a base 400 MT right now, around £6m profit. About 4.5p EPS assuming a small about of tax. So currently at a P/E of less than 20 assuming chemical covers the overheads.

3 more plants giving around another 500 MT in the next few months. Another £7.5m profit assuming minimal tax.

Add in a few mobile plants and the run rate will be looking extremely good by end of 2014.

What do we pay for £10m profits next year and a £15m profit run rate by year end for iodine?

I exclude water which would be another £11m or so and I really do think our chances are very good in getting it.

There is little growth factored into the current price IMHO but it matters not to me now. The share price can do what it wants in the short term, I am only interested in the 12 - 24 month picture.

All IMHO.

[rogerbridge] 19/12/2013 09:12

Yes, nice to see you back SG.

[killerbudgie] 19/12/2013 09:01

"What a bunch of idiots some are."

You are too kind...Foul mouthed cretinous morons I would have called them.

Nice to see you back sg.

[nellyb] 19/12/2013 08:56

nice to see you posting again sg. I had thought you had sold up.

[superg1] 19/12/2013 08:53

Just read a post or two elsewhere. What a bunch of idiots some are.

I will now have a good read of posts, apologies for having important matters to deal with and travelling yesterday.

For the moaners that have been moaning for months about IOF and hold, the posters here suggested you sell and get out if you had that views, as did I. if you held then you went against your own advice, grow a pair, as some say here.

In the last few months I have been saying I fear investor behaviour on the AIM more than I fear a business. Others make money by feeding on the greed and fear of others, it makes easy pickings for them.


All advice is DYOR, and assuming delivery. I do my own research, and don't invest on what BB's say, and all should do that.

I wanted to get off these ridiculous BBs some months back but made the decision to continue the subscription, I'll hang around for now, but I'll be glad to see the back of these crook ridden foul message boards.


Anyway back on the rns. It's up to IOF to explain what 'not fully optimised'.

They have the brine and ppm they've told us enough times, and CF has said to city folk that the io2 sites is food ppm. So up to him to now explain what bpd is going through io2 and what 'not fully optimised means'

[woodpeckers] 19/12/2013 08:45

Welcome back SG. Appreciate that you won't be able to read all the posts but do read matrixtrader's post from yesterday, very informative. In fact perhaps it could go in the header?

[tsmith2] 19/12/2013 08:40

inShare1 EmailUPDATE- Iofina says iodine plant roll out is on-trackBy Ian Lyall December 17 2013, 11:48am "Taking stock of the iodine production opportunities, increased derivative sales and prilling that are open to Iofina, 2014 signifies an exciting year for the rapidly expanding group," chief executive George Lantz said.---ADDS BROKER COMMENT AND SHARE PRICE---Iofina (LON:IOF) said the roll out of its revolutionary iodine plants was continuing on track as it reported this year's revenues and sales would be similar to 2012's.The update also revealed the completion of the fifth and sixth facility would happen as previously announced in the first quarter of 2014 as the fabricated structures await towers.A further three purpose-built units that process the brine water from oil and gas production will be constructed in 2014, Iofina said.It may also bring on stream mobile plants although the conceptual design is still being finalised.Looking at its 2013 performance, it said shipments by the Iofina Chemicals arm would be delayed meaning revenues would be flat year-on-year.Some of the production will go into higher-margin derivatives.The company appears to be more than holding its own following a sharp fall in prices that has forced competitors to shutter operations.This owes much to its low cost base and Iofina said it is well placed when to prosper when prices rebound. It expects this to occur in the second half of next year.Chief executive George Lantz said: "Whilst we expect revenues and EBITDA to be comparable to 2012, 2013 has seen the successful deployment of Iofina's IOsorb technology along with the continued growth of its derivatives business."Taking stock of the iodine production opportunities, increased derivative sales and prilling that are open to Iofina, 2014 signifies an exciting year for the rapidly expanding group."The stock was given a rough ride in morning trade as it fell 24% to just over £1 each. Chairman Chris Fay responded to the share price fall by buying 50,000 shares at an average price of 101p per share, taking his holding up to 1.3mln shares.Meanwhile, broker Investec repeated its 'buy' advice and 230p valuation.It said little had changed with its forecasts, though it added that iodine prices were "slightly below" its assumption.Investec is predicting revenues of US$18mln this year, rising to US$77.5mln next year and then US$117.8mln in 2015, with the latter figure resulting in a pre-tax profit of over US$50mln."Iofina's year-end operational update is largely in line with our expectations," analyst Neil Morton said in a note to clients."However, shipments of iodine chemicals around the year-end will see revenue and profit slip in 2014."Separately, Chris Fay, Iofina chairman, today bought shares in the company in two purchases at a total cost of around £150,000 and now holds 1.10% of the capital.

[wizard2020] 19/12/2013 08:33

Topped up again. Thanks che7win but topped before reading your post purely on belief over 2014 roll out against current expectations. Anybody know when the board will be in London next for an Investor presentation as it might be worth attending methinks.

[tsmith2] 19/12/2013 08:32

May have been over hyped previously but think this might be a good entry point..Taken some

[superg1] 19/12/2013 08:32

Great timing my busiest 2 days for some time, and that rns came out. Still busy not so just commenting

First thought, they can't write an rns.

News is supposed to give answers not questions.

Positives, good to see actual progress re io4 5 and 6 with photos of 4 and 5 on the website, so no doubts at what build stage they are at. Waiting for those towers it seems.

The useless bit of info 'over 1000 kgs' and 'not fully optimized' io2 maintenance.

So no one has a clue what the over 1000 kgs refers to in relation to bpd.

Given that they hit over 1000kgs back in May with io2 on 18.7k bpd and io1, what rates were they on to give that figure.

Io2 had over 30k bpd available, so does io3. So is the 1000 from io1 and 3 with io2 off for maintenance. io3 on half with io2 not on more yet on so on.

It just leaves complete confusion over bpd processed to achieve over 1000kg. A nice Sudoku puzzle but with numbers that can't be added up.

'not fully optimised' What's that bot full bpd or yields dropped due to a numpty not getting things right. So that is the key moan for me there.


Inventory.......... well they have to have one in the early stages so that you have the product available to meet orders should a plant problem come up. The need to ensure the chem div can meet it's orders in the event of the plant problem. IOF were a customer to producers in recent times and have now become a competitor, so there is no way imo, that a supplier would help them out if they were struggling for the raw product, so an inventory in part, is insurance.
I'm not guessing I had that very conversation at the AGM, it's common sense.


Own wells..... well there are some shut in ones on very high ppm, so they obviously are considering pods for those. That will come down to the maths. Revenue gained though other products like gas and oil v disposal cost of waste brine combined in revenue gained from iodine recovered. No operator royalty just lease owner royalty. That's the way iochem and others have been doing it in OK fro years. Typically such high ppm wells are low water bpd.


Too many posts here to read, apols I haven't had the time to read one.


Water permit. I don't care if some don't like my view, which hasn't changed.

It wasn't rejected, engineering queries can be easily fixed. Beneficial use, I strongly favour my idea that they think Hal is a partner not a customer due to the early days JV talk.

AWS was incorporated pre JV abandoned, so no doubt somewhere in the archives AWS is shown with Hals name on it. As Hal are the customer for the vast majority of it, the query must be around them.

So imo the bureau want clarity of if hal are part of AWS as an owner of are they a genuine customer with a deal with IOF. Yes they are. The water deal came well before any JV talk and still stands.

That's the only query I can think of on that front and it seems valid to me, as if the water bureau thought Hal were part of AWS then the application should have Hals name on it too.

Hopefully once IOF chat to the bureau we will find out, and with even more hope that a related rns, answers questions instead of creating them.


Finally another share hammered through a movement of revenues to the next financial year, I was mentioning those recently.

Confidence shot to pieces for many no doubt, but they need to put more detail in the rns. 1000kg plus clearly isn't plants on full speed or top yields, but which is it. 1000 plus was achieved back in May.

Water permit not rejected so if that gets sorted a nice surprise for those that think it's rejected and gone.

[tsmith2] 19/12/2013 08:30

Just reading the update2013 revenues and ebitda will be in line with 2012 despite the 20% fall in iodine prices and because of a slippage in external sales to Q1 2014Plant 3 has just come on line and 4 and 5 say mid Q1 (mid Feb)So actually not that shabby..Iodine prices have stabilised, may well riseExternal sales will commence in 2014Should have 5 plants up and running by end of Q1 (march) - a very significant ramp up in productionBonus - water permit..

[the librarian] 19/12/2013 07:57

The black cloud of QE easing that was hanging over the market has now been resolved by the look of it with the positive reaction on the DOW. Hopefully some confidence will be restored all around.

[captain_kurt] 19/12/2013 07:55

Good to hear Che & Remp. Looking forward to Q1 2014 and a much better looking shareprice

[che7win] 19/12/2013 07:34

Remp,
Thanks, that is important to note, they are not going to ramp as previously by declaring a daily high which might have occurred once in that particular month.

They will take the average across the month which is a more accurate picture.

The more plants we have, the better that figure will look as it will smooth out the fluctuations.

[remp31] 19/12/2013 07:16

Got the following email from the company last night. Clearly in excess of 1,000 kilograms of iodine per day could easily mean 1,400 kilograms of iodine per day.

Looking more rosy and expecting better days ahead. See below

"IO3 is producing as expected and production ramp up at that location was the
quickest we have seen by a large margin.

I will try to clarify the reported amounts as best as possible. The DAILY
high for IO1 and IO2 was just that, a record production 24 hour day. The
daily average based on a month of production will obviously be lower than
any one day record production amount. We do anticipate on surpassing our
previous production amounts on a monthly basis, especially with the
completion of IO3.

To sum it up, IO1 and IO2 alone are capable of producing 1,000kg+/day alone.
However, we anticipate a long term average of IO1, IO2 and IO3 to be greater
than 1,000kg/day, which has not occurred by IO1 and IO2 alone. That doesn't
mean that on any given day, production from the 3 plants won't exceed
1,200-1,400kg. We just don't anticipate the average to be that high.

Regards"

[jackabite] 19/12/2013 07:14

Major Dome 18 Dec'13 - 22:16 - 6539 of 6540 0 0

Here is a post from HAWK made by SG late last night,



"Chesty just for you, busy day for me, but I couldn't resist a bit of late evening digging.

Lincoln county other meeting minutes have appeared (Nov 26th meeting)

'Mr. DeWitt said that most of the oil activity has moved up north and onto John Craig's place, and Nighthawk is still doing quite a bit of permitting.'

Now we know why they are called John Craig wells, and where the oil hit which has caused the WF production surge."

Sound all too familiar to anyone?

[mail2] 19/12/2013 05:55

superg1 18 Dec'13 - 12:45 - 116110 of 116123 0 3

Def margin calls from IOF holders not me though as it can't happen I don't gear if I use that route and cover all.

Note there was a late 2.15m trade too. It looks like someone's entire portfolio went as I saw 11 shares, with identical late trade timings, including a 400k one for IOF, and other shares I follow