Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[iof multibagger] 18/12/2013 12:15

ALMIGHTY BOUNCY IS COMING! SHORTS CLOSING THESE WILL BOUNCE HARD

[che7win] 18/12/2013 12:14

Scrutable,
400 MT including recycling is today's current run rate without optimisation.

Include optimization and increase of brine to IO3 from current 20,000 Bpd to 30,000 and they would probably be nearer 500MT.

Next two plants at 165 MT each and IO6 on top means another 500MT.

Another three plants by end of next year and it is an easy 1400 MT run rate.

At $30 margin that would be $42,000,000 profits. Ignoring the chemical division which would cover overheads, that's 14p EPS and at P/E of 15 gets us over 200p.

Forgot to mention the mobile units, a couple of those could throw off another 400MT.

I think a takeover right now makes a lot of sense for any company with a slide rule over IOF, it won't get any cheaper than this.

[iof multibagger] 18/12/2013 12:12

BUY AS MANY AS YOU CAN AS FAST AS YOU CAN.

[diggulden] 18/12/2013 12:11

Well I bought in at 99.9 yesterday and 94.9 this morning. Not best timed obviously, but I do feel this is well oversold now. I might be right, I might be wrong, I'm not too concerned at the moment to be honest, unless for some reason the already proven technology ends up not working, this level is fairly safe in terms of long term investment, in my view.

[scrutable] 18/12/2013 12:02

worraps

stand back, if you still can, and assess the level of panic.

Panic feeds on panic. Shareholders seem keen to destroy themselves and hand Ennismore a gigantic and probably unexpected shorting bonanza.

I disagree with you that I cannot know that future value is unimpaired:
the parameters/components of that value are that:

1) it is unarguable that the IOF process is proven at I0#2 to be astonishingly high margin profitable and I have no doubt that we will know this of IO#3 soon

2)Dozens of contracts are signed up, waiting for IOF to embark on them

3)the IOF opex is a tiny fraction of the traditional mining cost

4)the patents and IP remain unchallenged and there is no credible competition

5) with IO#4/5/6 installed and operating by end H1 2014, it is not fanciful, even now, to disbelieve that IOF is able to roll out IO#7/8/9 during H 2(ie six plants for FY2014) to show the same increase in production as has been planned all along.

[warmsun] 18/12/2013 11:58

"by selling now so near the bottom,"

Scrut, I am not selling any of my shares, but, I thought the recent 120s was 'the bottom' and was continuing to buy :(

I personally have lost faith in our BoD....that's just my opinion, having not met them that opinion may be wrong, but, for me they have not handled the last 12 months at all well.....I now see IOF as a 'worrying' investment, whereas previously I viewed it as a sound comfortable investment. I could go on, but I shall refrain from doing so.

[captain_kurt] 18/12/2013 11:57

Well said che7win, and plausibly all in Q1 which is weeks away!

[jackabite] 18/12/2013 11:56

che7win


whos buying it though? everyone else is scaling back or shutting up shop...price is falling? it could all be over.

[jackabite] 18/12/2013 11:55

che7win

it's not about potential, it's about factual information. it's about cash flow, loan repayments and profit?

cash burn removes potential, loan repayments removes potential, profit margins will decline going into 2014 and capex will cause problems for expansion because there is no money so then what?

I mean you have the potential to be a millionaire investor but can you make a compelling argument as to how you will achieve that?

[che7win] 18/12/2013 11:55

Even producing 400 MT which they are doing now and selling it produces around 6p EPS, so we're on a P/E of 15 and a doubling of plants in a few months.

Water would add another 50p to the stock, as I say, it is hard to ignore the potential.

This is at or very near the bottom IMHO.

[jackabite] 18/12/2013 11:52

N3tley

well, that makes sense because as we all know these things can move quick on the way up but it makes the fall all the much harder when the rug gets pulled from underneath.

Physiologically I don't think anyone would bet against this hitting 48-35-20p and this is the most crucial factor as the sorters will take this all they way with very little resistance.

Who would throw money into this when the information afforded to shareholders is so thin and unclear that this could actually be in grave danger of collapsing? I mean, without any kind of solid factual information anything could happen.

I'm scared for what might happen here? superpooh you OK?

[che7win] 18/12/2013 11:47

I don't believe netley has called this right at all, sentiment can move a stock all over the place.

That's like saying the bulls were right over the summer, the bears are right now and the bulls will be right when the share hits 180p next year.

It's nonsense, the potential is there, the company has a lot of questions to answer but I believe the current price doesn't reflect the growth and world beating costs in producing iodine.

[worraps] 18/12/2013 11:36

SCRUTABLE

Your last two paragraphs:- " please do not swallow the shorter's disinformation"

What disinformation? They've been proved to be correct in their estimates!

"the future value has not" (been damaged)

You do not know that. That is pure speculation on your part.

______________________________________________________________________________

The whole demise of the shareprice has been caused by rose tinted speculation, and wild predictions of progress. And judging by some of the posts today and yesterday, that wild speculation, and never ending 'guesstimates' continues. Only yesterday, the usual culprits were announcing it was time to buy, not sell. Anyone who listened is today at a loss already!!

[n3tleylucas] 18/12/2013 11:33

Investors did not take yesterday well jack, stock didn't bounce enough, there's still selling pressure. I think many are throwing in the towel, if this develops into the psychological reverse of the sharp rise, then we're in free-fall mode.

[gadolinium] 18/12/2013 11:30

Hi Naphar,
Yes, I had not considered that the average might include downtime days, but again we are just left to speculate on the precise meaning behind all these figures.

[jackabite] 18/12/2013 11:28

N3tley

I'm watching with great interest. Matchstick at my side incase I feel the urge to blink. As I don't want to miss a thing :P

[scrutable] 18/12/2013 11:28

It is important at this low point in sentiment to distinguish between savage losses from the share price - which I believe will be seen a few months ahead as a substantial over reaction - and the performance of the business.

Undeniably there is an unwelcome postponement in the roll out plan, and consequent reduction in cash flow. There is also acute dissatisfaction with IOF's news flow management which carries prime responsibility for volatility in the share price

The unique low cost process we are invested in is unimpaired - as are the availability of dozens of lucrative contracts and the protection we have from competition.

The Board have reconfirmed that although start-up performance in 2013 was below expectations, roll out in 2014 will still be of six plants. We will not catch up the time lost and production lost whilst optimising the site, brine supply, and filtering process, but the increase in planned output during 2014 remains as high as before. If the iodine price recovers as is plausibly explained, the future value of the company will return to previous levels and those who have been able to hold on to their shares will have lost only their time and anger.

I use anger because the seven (?) down spikes engineered by short selling could have been avoided by empathetic skill which this BOD lacks. The actual attention and skill applied to PR/IR is a disgrace though this is not unusual in technology companies.

Should you not have lost leveraged positions, or sold on the way down, please do not swallow the shorters' disinformation and make their profits for them by selling now so near the bottom, as is the hall mark of the amateur.

The reputation of the company's management has been severely damaged, but the future value has not. We have all lost time, but we have only lost value if we have sold. The value will, just with patience and equanimity, reassert itself.

[n3tleylucas] 18/12/2013 11:25

Jack,

This needs to bounce off 77, or it's 48.

[jackabite] 18/12/2013 11:23

N3tley

when 77p is broken this will jackinife down to 35p within days and with low Volume over the Xmas period I suggest now is not a good time to buy these.

The chart looks nasty the DOWNWARD TREND is clear and why pay double now when you can get twice as much cheaper?

[worraps] 18/12/2013 11:22

It's a very uncomfortable and shocking thought.....but N3tleyLucas and Shonny and pals have been the most accurate assessors of IOF! And it takes humility to say that. If only some of them didn't gloat, they are the ones that are deserving a pat on the back. It makes me feel slightly sick to say that.

[killerbudgie] 18/12/2013 11:21

The RNS says "Although not fully optimized, the three combined plants are averaging in excess of 1,000 kilograms of iodine per day, satisfying the Group's internal iodine demand while building inventory for future outside sales."

"in excess" could mean anything. You don't need a plant to run 365 days to get 365mt if the "in excess" number is actually higher than 1000kg. All a bit coy and reeks of holding back information to me.

I read the RNS a few times. IMVHO it shows the BoD are coming to terms with a real life business rather than over optimistic plans. They are finding that the cooking times for the pizza are 20 minutes, not the 12 it says on the packet.

Detail would be nice to have and may enable a bounce. How much detail do you give out?

[n3tleylucas] 18/12/2013 11:19

Under 90 now, there is a crucial support at 77 that is approaching...

[gadolinium] 18/12/2013 11:09

Iofra,
yes, I take your point about the wording, but if they have it why no sales this year?

[naphar] 18/12/2013 11:07

gad, you raise a valid point with the averages 365 days etc, but it depends on whether the average daily output includes a representative number of days when there was downtime etc.