Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[ramu kumar] 18/12/2013 21:32

che, thanks and hitsha, try the hawk thread

[noli] 18/12/2013 21:30

Tnx Che, do you want a job to write the rns's, you did a fantastic job of the above.

[worraps] 18/12/2013 21:27

Thanks for all that, che7win, and taking the time to do it all.

[hitsha3] 18/12/2013 21:24

where hell is SG1, shocking!!!!!!

[mikeod] 18/12/2013 21:22

Che7win
Excellent background info - thanks for sharing it with us.

Very re-assuring in this atmosphere of widespread doom and gloom.

[the librarian] 18/12/2013 21:20

Well done Che, a better view and update than the RNS.

[hew] 18/12/2013 21:17

Che7, thank you and a great initiative.

[bogg1e] 18/12/2013 21:12

che7 thanks

[garfield31] 18/12/2013 21:05

Che7win very much appreciate your effort and sharing the results with us. Thanks

[dropside] 18/12/2013 21:05

Thanks che7win and matrixtrader, really top class balanced posts.

[bobbyshilling] 18/12/2013 21:03

escape, it depends on the share; ASC have 1200 bagged from 5p. Most people do not wait long enough with the investment (including myself in the past, eg tlw & asc) to realise the potential. Agreed though that not all shares are like that, the trick is spotting the ones that are. A lot of investors thought that iof could multi bag, especially from under £1, it still might, but the timescale has changed for the short term, as we all know.

[lignum] 18/12/2013 21:01

Che7win - thanks for taking the initiative and the feedback. As with many others here, it has been a disappointing few days, but we're mostly grown-ups, and the rough goes with the smooth. All part of life's rich tapestry.

[florence10] 18/12/2013 20:54

That was aimed at Escape.

[florence10] 18/12/2013 20:53

Thank The Lord !

[microcline] 18/12/2013 20:52

che7win Good info. Hope it steadies the ship.

[escapetohome] 18/12/2013 20:50

If you want to make money in this game I think you have to realise its a game of probabilities or chance.

If you want to 'act to preserve capital' to underpin your investment philosphy then you almost certainly should not buy a share that has already 10 bagged - The chances are you wont make money. Similarly dont catch the falling knife - or maybe 'wager' a measured amount when the knife falls.

Simple I know - buts those pearls of wisdom - that how I exited this share at a good profit.

Now you probably wont appreciate my 'words of wisdom', but I wish you all well. Since I no longer have an interest in this share ( apart from my SIPP) I wont be posting anymore but will monitor this board from time to time.
A Happy Christmas to you and a Merry 'back slapping' New Year to you.

[rhwillcol] 18/12/2013 20:43

Much appreciated, Che7win: thank you for doing this.

[roundup] 18/12/2013 20:39

Well done Che. that is the type of posting we need. Rather than criticise and complain, you did something worthwhile, your post should allay some fears.

[bobbyshilling] 18/12/2013 20:26

Che7, thank you for your post. Sounds pretty solid to me.

[naphar] 18/12/2013 20:26

Thanks for that Che.
I agree, spoke to Gary at last presentation and he seems down to earth and approachable, as well as capable IMO.

[square1] 18/12/2013 20:22

Thanks for all your efforts che7win. Very much appreciated

[che7win] 18/12/2013 20:14

Ok, here is some of my 30 minute conversation with Gary Gatchell, Executive Director and Finance Director.

Unfortunately he had to finish the call with me as he had a meeting to go to and clearly was running late for that - due to me!

First of all, I would say that square1, Baguette, frog1 and matrix are all making valid points and worth noting their posts. Much appreciated by me.

I also want to say, I don't hold anyone responsible for my investments other than myself and I will be retaining my entire holding and feel comfortable doing that.

Don't hold me to any mistakes, I post these comments in good faith and in all honesty.


So, to the conversation as best I recall. I will not share all of it, but as much as I feel able to. You never know who else is reading.

1. I reiterate what matrix has mentioned, forget about ppm conversation rates and what previous expectations were, this management is straight talking and totally realistic. The figures they give out we will be able to stand by in confidence.
Gary stated that the company did itself no favours mentioning PPM rates.

2. They are an under promise / over deliver management, that was communicated clearly in my call. I expect them to meet their forecasts on the plants, but they will strive to exceed them.

3.The water application: I inquired on the beneficial use, they have letters of intent to back up the application. Gary described it as just 'a bump' in the process. It definitely isn't rejected.

My opinion, I think we have a really good chance of getting it.

4. I enquired about the $4.5m decline between H1 and H2 after what they expected to be a stronger half H2.
There is a biggish order going out shortly but it can't be booked until shipped and that won't be until H1 next year. He mentioned strict timing on when that can be booked in the accounts. He wouldn't say how much of it, but he did say he was recently in Kentucky and there were lots of drums ready to go.

The price decrease in raw iodine also eventually feeds into iodine derivatives, that seems to be a factor in the decline.

5. On the sales effort of iodine, it's distributed. George Lantz, Lance Baller and other names I don't recall have been involved, but they want to dedicate this to one person. The lead times to sell raw iodine are longer than they expected.

6. On selling iodine, it's not like oil with a spot price, so it's more complicated than that market to sell. The president of the Chemical division reckons between $44 and $50 are the current prices and they're stable. He also mentioned Sirocco bringing production offline and SQM.

7. I mentioned the selling prices of Japanese iodine as opposed to Chile and USA. I was wondering if there was a difference in the raw prices, he couldn't really answer and he's only in the job a few months. He did say that being in the USA, there were customers who would like to do business with a local outfit.

8. Their 2014 output estimate is 700-1000 MT and that didn't change this week. I mentioned I was expecting 1400 MT which he didn't rule out but I would assume their number! See point 2, I stress they are being 'conservative' in forecasts to the market. Its obvious to me that they want to beat what they publish.

9. The rollout is 'slower than expected', he stated 4, 5 (I can't remember if he included 6 from my notes) production first quarter.

10. Io2 and 3 are being used in the Chemical derivatives.

11. On selling derivatives, it's not so much competing with others as 'it's a technical sale'. Our sales go all over the place and to different customers.
He expects 'significant growth' in 2014.

12. Opex costs: I would go with $20 for now. He said that the costs need to be averaged across all plants. He said lower has been achieved but the average is higher and they are still at an early stage and gaining more experience all the time.

13. On a takeover, they have an ongoing programme to prevent that from happening. My opinion - they take this seriously as they meet regularly over this.

14. I can tell you that they are focussing on raw iodine sales and plant roll out.

15. Mini-plants. Should cost around $500,000 and they expect a few of them next year.

16. On optimisation of the plants: I specifically asked about IO2. This is to do with the towers and the build up of residual material. They are looking at ways of stopping it happening, O&G companies deal with it too, they are looking at ways to minimise the need for a deep clean.

It was nice to talk to Gary, it gives me a good perspective of the business, certainly it's early stage and we can't expect everything to go smoothly but they are clearly improving all the time.


I'm keeping this long term, this isn't a two bit start up, it's a company that has achieved a lot in the last 12 months and should progress well going forward.

We aren't at a position to see 200p in the next 6 months, but certainly in the next 12 IMHO.

[baguette] 18/12/2013 19:46

Its not for me to be negative or positive its for the Company to give us just one RNS which is not an obfuscation but a useful and positive information update. They have no right to just tell us that expected sales did not occur (bearing in mind they were the first expected outside of some conversion business) without a strong reaction.

Blimey if I had not been positive with hope I would not have gone back into AIM with a rather disproportionate amount of investment (entirely my own fault yes)

Am more than willing to be persuaded of a progressive business model again but gradually this time

[sandbag] 18/12/2013 19:17

"If the water application is denied they will have failed us on every issue and IMO will be company in danger of going bust"

Very dramatic Baguette and very obvious what your game is!
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