Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[n3tleylucas] 13/12/2013 08:07

Oh dear oh dear... didn't someone once say the water was something of a red herring? Hammer Time SCRUT... get ready.

[1madmarky] 13/12/2013 08:03

Note the Atlantis discharge permit and the big iodine site model patent. They all took time. But IOF got them both!

[escapetohome] 13/12/2013 08:03

Trolleys go forward !!

[captain_kurt] 13/12/2013 07:58

They don't need to clarify anything until the process is complete. Especially since no broker notes have priced that in. It's all about Iodine production.

What they need to clarify is have we reached 700MT with 3 plants running?

[gkgdownie] 13/12/2013 07:46

Needing some clarity here. Has news been issued? What is the situation now? Are we in a different place than yesterday?

[hotr0d] 13/12/2013 07:44

Meadow2, theoretically this delay on the water permit shouldn't have any effect on the share price as it's never been priced in by the Market or any broker notes. Typical of planning departments I expect they've forgotten to put a comma in the wrong place or something of the like.

[che7win] 13/12/2013 07:42

So, the water application is moving towards denied, unless the company persuade otherwise.

[jointer13] 13/12/2013 07:33

more info needed.

The applicant will have 15 days to contact the DNRC in order to schedule a meeting and offer additional information as to why the application should be granted. If the information provided is adequate, DNRC will create the preliminary determination to grant the application and the application will move to public notice as discussed above.

[captain_kurt] 13/12/2013 07:32

Think of them as planning officers that need each detail expanded on. And the delay is 15 days from their own procedures.

If Iofina expect IO4 and IO5 operational by the end of January that is excellent news and Iofina should be informing the market this side of Xmas.

I would like to know if Iofina will meet the exit rate for 2013 on just 3 plants?

[meadow2] 13/12/2013 07:27

But the application was deemed correct and complete! Now I am confused. In any event, it means more delay.

[superg1] 13/12/2013 07:18

Not really meadow it's the site process for more info needed, that's why it says 'draft'.

Ask iof.

[zendo102] 13/12/2013 07:18

The fat lady hasn't sung yet.

If it is determined that one or more criteria have not been proven and the DNRC is unable to modify the application, the DNRC will prepare a draft preliminary determination to deny. The applicant will have 15 days to contact the DNRC in order to schedule a meeting and offer additional information as to why the application should be granted. If the information provided is adequate, DNRC will create the preliminary determination to grant the application and the application will move to public notice as discussed above. If the information is not deemed adequate, a preliminary determination to deny will stand and the application will move to our Hearings Unit and a show cause hearing will be held if the applicant does not withdraw the application.

[meadow2] 13/12/2013 07:11

Well, Draft Determination to DENY Completed! So no water permit, we thought that permission would be automatic. The share price will be hammered today, I presume. Will there be an unwelcome RNS issued today?

[noli] 13/12/2013 06:24

PC, if i remember correctly IOC can cope with around 800mt before they need to expand. As long as these 3 plants are at full tilt iof will need to expand IOC in the short term. With IO#4 + 5 expected in 6 weeks they will be over capacity for IOC. They will expand in some form at the IO#2 location but with 4 + 5 due soon plans must be close on that front.

[n3tleylucas] 13/12/2013 05:03

Funny how Stena didn't just take a placing eh... always been gnawing away at the back of my mind, that. What will they do if it's well underwater, and no cash?

There's a rather uncomfortable conflict of interest emerging here.

If push comes to shove, there's only one winner. The offer that you can't refuse?

[ramu kumar] 13/12/2013 03:38

When are you guys all going to wake up? We have ALL been taken for a ride by SG and LB. If you don't believe me then just look at the share price.

Don't wait for the PING, just the BS......

[superg1] 13/12/2013 00:39

Titus re Lance

I think a broker put out a comment some time back saying some had been sold for personal reasons which I don't want to mention.

However in November the register details were unchanged, so it was incorrect information.

As for where are we now, io2 and 3 should be on the full bpd, which buy my calcs with 1,2 and 3, mean just over the 700mt ton mark.



Up to io6 was forecast but also 700mt to 1000mt. Io1 is the baby, so what if io2 and 3 add 500mt to 600mt or more. What does that then say for the upper figure fpr io4 to 6

Well let's just see what they report over the coming weeks, but I suspect things on the iodine front are positioned better than most think, they just need to tell us.


There was no need to worry about telling competitors that production wasn't going well. With io3 up to speed I would consider that they will release data covering the plants in play at the moment.

For worraps :-)

My forecast is 600mt plus rates for io2 and 3. 50mt was the last we heard re io1, and they haven't included recycling in the past, which was down as 5mt per month.

The iodine price news is about forecast rates, those rates are only applicable to those willing to sell at that rate. As I recall SQM were in talks re contracted rates. IOF are more or less tied to derivatives at the moment, and I doubt prices have moved much there.

Rewind a year or two, and iof honoured lower prices in contracts even though the price of iodine they were buying in, shot up.

I doubt pricing short term really affects the chem div that much in the derivative sector.

Markets not healthy and this seems more about the fear of the unknown re the iodine story than what is actually going on.

Io2 and 3 should be up to full speed, and if that is right, then I don't think that many will be moaning at 600mt plus rates, without io1 or recycling.

[pcjoe] 12/12/2013 23:57

Good point Noli re current production of iodine going to IOC - Cant quite remember what quantity IOC have been using recently ( per annum) or the rate or near term likelihood of increases to this - I am sure someone here has these facts to hand - It is very possible ( though it would be very nice to see it confirmed management please) that IOC are now running 100% on home grown iodine - If not, then surely a given in the very near future - And at likely opex to make the opposition weep

Given the above, one would think that the share price has some very solid fundamentals to underpin it on the back of IO1 - 3 alone, although - as usual - the vagaries of the market will play their unsettling role in proceedings until hard facts emerge

[festario] 12/12/2013 23:49

The next 2 trading sessions will tell if you are right Titus. I sincerely hope you are as my holding here is way too heavy for comfort.
You make reference to your 'buy signal' which coincided with a rise back in August, I'm sorry pal, but even you must admit that it was an RNS that day which jumped the price.
Also, I politely point out that you told us of an 'imminent buy signal' a few weeks ago. We are a good 25p down since then. Please do not be so selective with your TA triumphalism. Apart from the RNS day, none of it has been worth a cent.
This share swung upwards on momentum, as newcomers like me piled in.
Since then, it has only ever reacted to RNS's, usually negatively, but occasionally positively.
Why not post a graph of all the rises / falls, and label it with all the RNS dates? I'm not clever enough, but I'm sure we have chartists on here that are.
The correlation will be astonishing.

Come on IOF, let's have a nice run up towards year end now please!

[iof multibagger] 12/12/2013 23:32

Strong buying oppertunity look at the arrows huge bounce coming.

[titus10] 12/12/2013 23:27

Best day's discussion (imo) that I can remember on this thread.

I don't comment as a rule on others' opinions here, but was interested that the unease I appeared at the time to be alone with over Lance Buller's resignation and departure from the bod was aired by someone else today. If I'm correct, it was generally dismissed then as unfortunate but somewhat immaterial on the grounds that "everything was in place" (sic). Also interested that the possibility of some distribution of his share holding might have or now be weighing on the share price was hinted at - also a thought that I'd pondered privately.

Anyway, thanks to some newcomers here we're getting some interesting posts.

As to the sp, it's now simply back where it spent August and most of September. Don't remember all this lamentation then (apart from some Festario frustration that my Intermediate-Term Buy signal given on 16th August wasn't apparently doing what he wanted when he wanted it).

Fact is, looking at the aggregate of daily candlestick action since that signal until today, we still have a mean uptrend at a rate of around 58%pa. From an investment standpoint, it's a classic mistake to overweight recent price behaviour without good reason. Can't say personally that I like the steady daily drift down since (unwisely, with wisdom of hindsight) I topped up on Wed 4th Dec, but has anything really happened to justify it?

Could it be simply being pushed down to the previous support level to enable serious money to weigh in? Shouldn't be surprised, myself.

[woodpeckers] 12/12/2013 23:05

Well I picked up more today at 140p, can't look a gift horse in the mouth!

[lignum] 12/12/2013 22:59

Nothing has changed except the shares have got cheaper.
Nothing will change until the next announcement.
If the shares get cheaper before the next announcement then everyone who buys into the story has a bigger opportunity.

[che7win] 12/12/2013 22:44

All these negative posters, I bet they will all be jumping in when the stock turns.

Always nice to get in cheap I suppose, but expect some of the long termers to fight you for them.