Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[alwilliamson] 30/5/2013 22:53

Super, that's an interesting statement from SQM president. It shows they don't fear any new entrants to market at the moment. They believe any market share taken will be from their higher Opex competitors and not them. They seem more preoccupied with whether current prices are to be maintained. I'm sure they are aware of iof as a new producer but hopefully not the scale and speed we're moving.

[supreme mo] 30/5/2013 22:18

ATS, may well have been at the Black and Blue Bar at Borough Market on Thursday 9th May between 10pm and 12.... :-)

On something totally unrelated to the above, I had a quick look at Jeff Ploen's linkedin page. As you can see he has a good history of extracting value out of companies. I am almost tempted to have a closer look at IBIO:

Over the course of my career I have had an extensive background in numerous private and publicly traded companies.

Here is a brief bio:

Mr. Ploen is a current director of Iofina PLC, High Speed Aggregate Inc., and J Paul Consulting Corp. He was also a former director of Petro Uno LTD, a Canadian oil and gas exploration company that was recently purchased by Renegade Petroleum LTD (RPL.V). As the director of finance at Navidec, Inc., now BPZ, Inc (AMEX: BZP; market capitalization of $470 million), I helped facilitate the merger and the initial financing that brought BPZ public. Mr. Ploen is the former CEO of Tamaron Corp., Paradigm Holdings, Inc., and Tonga Capital Corp., all of which were sold or merged into substantially larger corporations.
Currently I am actively involved in multiple companies, working with many investor networks including stock brokers, hedge funds, angel investors, private equity groups and institutional investors.

One of them is Ibio, Inc.:

(NYSE Amex: IBIO) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on using and promoting the use of its proprietary, non-transgenic plant-based iBioLaunch(TM) technology platform by which targeted proteins can be produced, with core operational focus on biosimilars, biobetters, orphan drugs and vaccine discovery, development, production and licensing. The company is headquartered in Newark, DE.

Specialties:Board Member, Investor, Publically Traded Companies, Microcap Investments, Hedge Funds, Investor Relations, Public Relations, Marketing, and Investor Management

[cocorico2009] 30/5/2013 22:18

fwiw

from old BB

IOFINA Iodine, gas, water!!, maybe Oil (Bakken) - IOF

cocorico2009 - 14 May 2013 - 15:35:46 - 25118 of 26053


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

2 weeks later and having been tested twice the share price is still in the rising channel

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


more interesting is that today's intraday activity has seen the 0.25p gap (234.50- 234.75) left over from tuesday's low now filled.

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Friday 24 May
open 231.69
high 234.50*
low 224.25
close 231.25

Tuesday 28 May
open 235.00
high 244.87
low 234.75*
close 239.00

coco

edit : now trying to work out why my text has posted as underscored links?!

[superg1] 30/5/2013 22:16

SQM

Q ans A's re Q1 results. From seeking Alpha (have to put that re copyright)



If you read through it you will see they are trying to defend margins re iodine rather than get into an over-supply price drop situation

However, new entrants to the lithium and iodine markets will capture some market share this year. In iodine, this new supply will continue to have an impact in our sales volume during the remaining of the year. As in the past, we are focused on maintaining our margins and our first priority is to making sure the market demand is met.

Seriously speaking, iodine market condition were positive during the first quarter 2013, and we expect this trend to continue in the future. Demand, in all main uses, continue to grow, x-ray contrast media, LCD and consumption related to pharmaceutical remained prominent use for iodine.

Regarding iodine, we have a good first quarter. We expect that the production of Algorta, which is the expansion of their ACS here in Chile, will continue to ramp up their production to a capacity. So we expect that during the year, in iodine, we should be around 5% to 7% lower than volume than 2012



President and Director- Soquimich Commercial S A
First, as you know, there is no really public information like in any other or many other industries where you can see the exact cost structure of the different competitors. I will say that we are one of the few, if not the only one competitor in the lithium and as well as in the iodine industry that publish results and have this conference calls. So we really do not have access to our competitors. We have, of course, estimates. And going to the first part of your question, yes, our estimate is that in both of these business lines, we are one of the lowest cost producers. So for sure we are in the first quartile -- or the first part of the cost curve in iodine, as well as in lithium. Regarding our strategy, what is different between these 2 business lines, in iodine, as we indicated in our press release, we are trying to, of course, optimize our margins. There has been an important change in the price level in the last two years on, especially in the last year. So right now, we are following very closely what is the reaction of the market and especially the prices sensitive to these new price level. We have seen that the market is accepting and is working with this new price level, which is very important for our margins. And, of course, if we want to optimize our margins, we work on the volumes accordingly. We also think that long-term, we are the, as we have proven in the past, we are the company that have the reserves and the technology and the possibilities to support the market growth, the market demand growth and allow a few entrants, from time to time, have come in, or the increased capacity from some of our competitors.

[che7win] 30/5/2013 22:15

TFC,
Your question this morning to me is already answered, those are the Investec EPS figures, 4.82p this year and 24.12p (£30.7m pretax) next.

The 4.82p this year doesn't interest me, it's the run rate that matters hence next year show the real performance it the business.

Excuse the formatting:

2013 2014
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 6.10 4.82 30.70 24.12
1 Month Change -2.10 -1.64 17.90 14.04
3 Month Change 1.10 0.86 19.10 14.98
Investec Securities 09/05/13 BUY 6.10 4.82 30.70 24.12

[che7win] 30/5/2013 22:12

Superg,
I agree, I am under playing levels somewhat and I am not at the forefront of knowledge on this excellent board, but I like to build in a margin if safety.

Only reading your post below to me now, so apologies in the delay.


superg1 30 May'13 - 07:17 - 490 of 552 0 0

Che

I don't think you need to factor in ppm's of 200 for any of the first 12 (research).

It's good to keep things underplayed though, so that we don't set our sights too high.

However when you look at the EPS you mention and share price it may seem nuts to some, but on the research for potential production levels it is well within our grasp.

[n3tleylucas] 30/5/2013 22:08

That's more like it ...

[engelo] 30/5/2013 22:07

warren: realised that this has all been covered before so for convenience have copied these posts:

superg1 - 14 May 2013 - 07:22:22 - 25061 of 26053
I asked about 'mud'.

The correct term is 'cake' or crystalised etc.

Prilled and cake(mud) are of the same purity. Prilled, as Rug points out is just makes use easier to handle.

As you can see form the io1 rns some months back, what comes out is of high quality, and of a sufficient grade for all IOF derivatives.

gadolinium - 14 May 2013 - 09:05:07 - 25071 of 26053
Hello Lib,
Only just looked in (I am on holiday).
I know nothing about prilling technology, only that it is as already stated a method for changing the physical form and flow properties of the product.
A problem with your fluidised bed process may be that iodine is quite volatile in that it can undergoe sublimation on heating at atmospheric pressure, which might give technical problems in a fluidised bed.

I assume from my recollection of various patents (I have no direct knowledge) that the iodine is eluted from the 'absorption column/bed' as a solution in the iodide or possible triiodide form, which is then oxidised (probably with sodium hypochlorite, an IOC product) to give free iodine which being insoluble in water will just precipitate out and can be collected by filtration. I assume this is the mud/cake (85-90% pure) and good enough for most uses. Further purification 99+% then being achieved by crystallisation. Prilling then provides the free flowing form if required by customers, but effects no further purification.
Hope this helps.

gadolinium - 14 May 2013 - 09:45:07 - 25076 of 26053
Hi super,lib
just had a look at my notes from Jeff's presentation. Says mud is 85-90% and sufficient for many internal uses, but would need to be purer and prilled for external sale, but also looking at the market for sale of the mud grade material. Obviously not selling externally at present, prilled or not, so presumably not bothering with enhanced purity at present.
I think thats the topic flogged to death for now. Lets just assume they know what they are doing!

[engelo] 30/5/2013 21:59

warrensearle: IOF-C division input. If I've got it right a lot of chemicals are best synthesised starting with purefied (crystalline) iodine from the towers. Some require the (reshaped) prill form, and prill is also a staple requirement of the open market. An exception to this is methyl iodide (one of IOF-C's staple products), which uses the crude 85% mud (ie prior to crystallisation).

[skylite] 30/5/2013 21:45

Back off Maisy people, she's a mouse with a heart. Gets me and mini skylite through many an evening.

[anger taxes son] 30/5/2013 21:24

Supreme moWe didn't have a dog. We had a cat though, called Sausage.Have you seen my Dad? I haven't seen him in a while :-(

[monts12] 30/5/2013 20:16

SG
Not me gov'nor 8-0

[supreme mo] 30/5/2013 19:33

The only dog with fleas around today is cupid...

Who would call their dog maisie by the way?! Maybe it belongs to anger taxes??

[urbanyeti] 30/5/2013 19:32

I guess I was barking up the wrong tree, they could be some good bedtime reading for sky though.

[superg1] 30/5/2013 19:20

UY lol

Is that a clue?. Connected to Monts or Monty Panesar maybe, they post here.

I note on the products page this item (a book)

'Maisie's friend Monty comes to play.'

One thing is for sure Maisie will know a lot more about IOF than many analysts.

[warrensearle] 30/5/2013 19:18

Re the expansion of the chemical division - this is the reason we are building the prill tower in Kentucky right? Jeff said once the chem division reaches saturation in terms of the amount it can process and sell as derivatives we need the prill tower to be able to sell product on the open market?? This was my slight concern that if the expected huge ramp up in production happens we will have a gap between extraction and turning it into cashflow.

[urbanyeti] 30/5/2013 19:13

Hope this helps with Maisie-dogs identity sg.http://www.maisiedog.co.uk/Home.html

[n3tleylucas] 30/5/2013 19:07

Things not going according to plan eh? Ah well ... that's life.

[engelo] 30/5/2013 19:04

sg 541: hmmm.

[engelo] 30/5/2013 19:02

Thanks superg (539). Yes, a fine line but confident we have the quality of management to steer along it :-)

Your point about India and madchick's (June) presentation notes point to big expansion at IOFC but imo after another 6 months they will never be able to swallow all the iodine :-)

Have dug out Lance's actual words back in April (thanks to Orslega):

"We will in due course but currently our rollout is important to not show the world as we are changing the industry forever. In the coming months we will be so far ahead it will not matter."

[superg1] 30/5/2013 18:50

Engelo

'If SQM etc are not a T/O threat atm, how many Chem divs out there are big enough to take us on?'

SQM $12.5 billon M/C

Dow chemical $42 billion M/C

[engelo] 30/5/2013 18:45

Extract from diggulden (25042)

"What has become fairly obvious to me is the slight change of direction management are taking compared to Lance's vision.

Lance was adamant that IOC could be expanded to the hills, to deal with up to 2000MT if necessary, whereas we know seem to be talking 800MT max and then the rest onto the open market, which I happen to be happier with as their less complication and time involved with ramping up production and expansion at IOC."

dig: meant to say 'I agree' at the time but somehow it didn't get done :-(

[superg1] 30/5/2013 18:45

Lib

Just saying the new entrant comment is about IOF. I doubt they know what IOF can do. Clearly many don't.

Engelo.

Companies like Troy buy in iodine at the going rate. I posted about their 3 or 4 price rises on products in quick time related to iodine costs.

Margins are generally 10 to 20%, obviously with IOF being able to produce at much lower costs any serious expansion into the iodine derivatives Troy and others do, then they can't compete.

Gaining all their iodine at reduced prices also puts them in a commanding position.

It's a fine line for IOF to tread if they want to continue on, they could push some producers aside without too much fuss, and that long term may help the likes of SQM.

Try to go aggressive on the derivatives side via the chem div and they are gone imo.

[engelo] 30/5/2013 18:34

superg: follow your thinking but can't rationalise:

"If IOF are planning to push all production through the Chem div in time, then it's goodbye IOF iodine imo."

"If IOF were to go to a certain level on integration re their niche products and new custom as in India, combined with supplying the raw product to end users then I can see them staying as they are."

Think you are saying that IOF have these two alternative strategies, and you prefer the second. I certainly do, much more flexible.

If SQM etc are not a T/O threat atm, how many Chem divs out there are big enough to take us on?

edit: lib: hadn't seen your post. Think we are disturbing 2 major interests which chimes in with Lance's 'revolution in the iodine industry' words a couple of months ago.