Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[peterz] 29/5/2013 18:17

skylite - any good news!! We spoke for some time at the meeting in Cheltenham!

[the librarian] 29/5/2013 18:14

All good points Plas, you have done well out of Iofina apparently, surely those points are something you know the answers to? Look back on the 'old' thread, they are all there!

[n3tleylucas] 29/5/2013 18:11

"Can it continue to build plants without debt?"

Well, they all said yes, until the $15m junk bond bombshell.

Great researchers though.

[pwcarnall] 29/5/2013 18:05

sold out plasybryn?

[skylite] 29/5/2013 18:02

Plasybryn DYOR or go the AGM or presentations etc.

[ramu kumar] 29/5/2013 17:50

Thanks monts

[plasybryn] 29/5/2013 17:33

The Librarin: Interesting post, but should you including some financials like when
does IOF turn profitable?
Some might think it is already over priced?
What is the projected EPS for 2013 & 2014?
Can it continue to build plants without debt?
Is it well supported by Institutional Shareholders?
Do the prime movers have "skin in the game"?
What are the value of assets?
When will it start paying dividends?

[freshvoice] 29/5/2013 16:42

Volume traded still seems very low since 13th.

Not much happening to justify changes in price, must just be normal churning.

[ramu kumar] 29/5/2013 16:16

monts, did you buy it online?

[the librarian] 29/5/2013 15:23

Just in case SQM do look in, it's good to help :-). A super conclusion!


superg1
18 May'13 - 13:37 - 25495 of 25498 0 0


The actual IOF iodine story is now on ppm's of 300 to 500ppm for large plants, and up to 1000ppm for a pod or two, with yields up to 98%.

In the timeframe the world iodine production majors have hit big problems, capex and opex has rocketed and so has the iodine price.

Japan with over 20% of the world supply and 50 years in the business is in decline.

IOF have the lowest capex and opex by far with their own country wanting US iodine and import near 6000mt. ($360m worth)

The iodine story is stunning on it's own and would significantly disrupt revenues of multi Billion companies like SQM, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Dow, Troy corp and plenty of others.
The list gets bigger re water interest.

But somehow some see it as a good shorting opportunity. Absolute suicide imo, There are a host of big hits on the positive side that could appear at any time, and we severely lag what 6 plants could do in revenue terms and they are due to be in place over the next 7 months, with a slim chance that io 7 and 8 may appear.

Debt facility sorted, tech proven, opex crazy levels, big demand for their products.

That's not even the full story.

So many AIM's rely on one aspect of their business in a do or die scenario, IOF are tripping over revenue streams.

It's got to be one of the most brilliant investment opportunities around, and that has ever appeared. Then it happens to be in the hands of a brilliant team.

Giles Hargreave recently said it's relatively easy for a company to go from a 10m MC to 100m, but much harder to go from 100m to 1 bill MC.

Yet he calls IOF his fave small cap share. I understand Richard Lockwood and a number of others are saying just the same.

It's not difficult to work out why and some of those don't know the share anywhere near as well as us.

Even with all of that I'm just looking at io3 and 4, with one factor I don't mention ;-)

[n3tleylucas] 29/5/2013 13:21

See CUP's 88p now eh lads ... up 33% in a few days eh ...

[writz] 29/5/2013 12:05

Thanks, Librarian.

[the librarian] 29/5/2013 11:57

WRITZ, for reasons previously highlighted I have decided not to post links on here any more but that information is freely available on the net.

New entrants to the market does apply to the Lithium... only nine months ago SQM were very bullish on that front but have now realised that they do not monopolise there, if they didn't already know!

On the fertiliser, particularly the potash, they stuck the prices up too high and caused a mini revolution amongst their customers who refused to buy at the inflated prices. What have they done? Joined up with large German and Spanish companies to try and improve derivative sales. Profits are getting knocked from all angles and they are looking at ways to diversify to maintain their market lead.

Iodine is very important to them profit wise and they are looking to their own shores and putting obstacles in the way of competition where they can.

At the moment a quick view tells them that IOF may produce 500MT/pa, not a big threat at the moment and don't forget they have been hearing for years that IOF are going to be producing Iodine.

My feeling is that when IOF open up on production figures it will be a shock to them, but not a threat at the moment!

[n3tleylucas] 29/5/2013 11:44

"Hopefully no bid until IOF have provided more hard evidence"

The funniest post of the day.

[bocker01] 29/5/2013 11:36

Hopefully no bid until IOF have provided more hard evidence of their worth. Bidders have to justify outlay and execs tend to worry about the career defining effects of bad decisions. Let's hope this is the case here, and no offers emerge this year. Otherwise we'll be the losers, forced to sell too low. Fingers crossed and bated breath whilst we wait for more positive developments, hoping not to be disappointed - and for a share price that reflects the company's worth. Of course, this is much higher than now.

[n3tleylucas] 29/5/2013 10:13

I thank you diggers, not much between 230 & 224, good good.

[diggulden] 29/5/2013 10:02

UPDATED AS OF 10.55AM

[engelo] 29/5/2013 09:55

Superg: thanks for info and commentary, and yes, just as you anticipated :-)

Imo from SQM's viewpoint the sudden arrival of a completely new technology with 'limitless' resources, drastically lower capex/opex and sitting in the middle of the world's biggest customer base must seem just too awful to be true. There must be some doubters there awaiting proof, or hoping that some disaster will strike and it will all go away.

First direct evidence will come when SQM realise that no more iodine orders are coming from IOF itself, then when they start to lose orders to IOF on the open market presumably sometime in 2013/early 2014. However perhaps the first to feel the impact of rising production will be IOF Chem competitors, so won't be that obvious to SQM.

Incidentally, was madchick's AGM commentary the first we have heard of IOF Chem expanding onto its new land?

edit: re IOF Chem this is not quite right: what mc actually said was "They are upgrading IOC in 1H 2013 for greater throughput and new products." Still new news, though.

[n3tleylucas] 29/5/2013 09:51

Same old same old ... change the record. L2 please digger.

[superg1] 29/5/2013 09:41

Lib

They specifically said 'new entrants', but did lump that comment in to cover Lithium and Iodine.

Extra supply does come from Acf (suspect the will max out at 2,400 mt, Cosayach (gained a water permit in Q1 to increase production, Sirocco (who intend to add near 400mt this year, but may struggle).

Iof is the only significant new entrant. Increasing demand rates add 1000-1500mt PA at the moment.

The key hint at the presentation was that US end users, want US produced iodine. The US imports near 6000mt.

But the biggest impact overall is the fact SQM have bullied all in the iodine market in previous years.

This time the new supply/entrants is not prompting them to drop prices and increase their production. They have stated they expect lower volumes.
So it seems rather than get into an over-supply situation and price pull backs, they are going defensive to keep prices steady.

This is what we anticipated some time back.

[writz] 29/5/2013 09:32

(Deleted copy)

[writz] 29/5/2013 09:32

Sorry, my update button seems to be repeating.