Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[monts12] 30/5/2013 01:19

A very good question Lib (like you I'm all in) and one I asked Scrutable myself over a nice Thai meal after the PI presentation. As we'd had a few drinks by then I don't accurately recall Scrutable's answer!
Sorry Scrutable, just being mischievous, I'll let you speak for yourself :-)

[the librarian] 30/5/2013 00:50

Just a point Scrutable, if you really believe so passionately in IOF why do you invest in other shares which are second best, third best etc; ?

Not in any way undermining your opinion, but, if that is your belief why the others?

I am all in on IOF and will remain so.

[n3tleylucas] 30/5/2013 00:18

"I know that reiteration of this theme is boring"

"This is not the last time I will raise the subject."

You* seem to have, from what I read, fairly decent principles. Meaningless in real life though - flesh, blood, nerves, feelings, responsibilities et al v *anonymous poster typing words onto a screen into an electronic medium.

This will be interesting.

[scrutable] 30/5/2013 00:10

supreme mo 27 May'13 - 08:42 - 350
- the more of these plants we have running the greater the take out price a suitor would have to pay.......

Sacrilege!


I wish investors would carefully examine my proposition to kill all thought of considering, or worse, encouraging thoughts of selling out......

Where on earth could Jeff Ploen or you or anyone else find a better investment for the proceeds from selling your shares than in IOFINA itself?

I consider it a duty to wives and children, and also to the very stupid, to repeat this point ad nauseam, on this board, at the AGM, to opinion formers anywhere in the investment community until noone is prepared to give a takeover bid the time of day. I feel it is madness to consider it.

Could someone tell me the point of such an act?

Anyone needing the finance for personal reasons is always at liberty to sell their shares in the normal market. Why compel the rest of us to accept cash for our holdings when there is not now, nor during the last ten years anywhere remotely comparable to put it?

I know that reiteration of this theme is boring, and could be considered as underestimating others, but forgive me for it comes from passionate belief, which obviously many people do not yet share. This is not the last time I will raise the subject.

[pcjoe] 30/5/2013 00:08

With IO3 and IO4 going in shortly thereafter, you could be right with both sites Rug, although IO2 may only be short-term destined for intercepting 50%ish of passing brine lines with the lowest piped PPM brine disappearing unfiltered down the 60k plug hole - At the moment I would guess that new IOF plant would be targetted at the highest available PPM sites with the company intention of revisiting adjacent lower PPM pipe streams at a later date - surplus Mobile mini`s to be plugged into these in the future?

[skylite] 29/5/2013 23:29

Must have been phantom contractions. As soon as the rugby finished she stopped moaning. She's happily watching Greys Anatomy now with a packet of Haribos.

[diggulden] 29/5/2013 21:56

Rugrat, great post. I have seen further 'Plant Operative' job posts based in Alva, OK, so what you are saying is quite possible.

[n3tleylucas] 29/5/2013 21:52

I'd rather you concentrate on Level 2 duties tbh diggers, especially when the sp's falling. Thanks.

[diggulden] 29/5/2013 21:49

Randomly came across this today:



$25,000 worth of equipment we no longer use and is for sale. Every little helps.

[rugrat2] 29/5/2013 21:34

From the moment that I first read the mention of the siting of IO#3 in the Finals, I was contemplating the phrase "in close proximity to IO#2". My interpretation was anything up to 4 to 5 miles from the first site, and that pretty much narrowed the operator down to MidStates again, with just a possibility of Chesapeake being able to supply a couple of suitable SWD sites within that distance. I gather that rumour has it that MidStates are indeed the host, and I have been looking at the developing pattern of drilling permits to try to come to some conclusion as to which SWD well IO#3 is sited at.

In reality there is only a choice of two. I have overlaid a GE image with the month by month addition of drilling permits this year in the core area of MidStates activity. You can see the accelerating rate of permitting – remember that they now have four rigs operating in this core area with a fifth drilling wells on the periphery to hold lease by production (HBP).

http://i41.tinypic.com/b3rbsz.jpg

When I first researched the MidStates well position earlier this year (post 13101) the newly drilled Lohmann SWD had the second most developed cluster of permits and wells ( now up to 28?), behind the Longhurst SWD (IO#2) ( now up to 39?) and that remains the situation. The vertical Cook, Morehart and Murrow SWD wells seem to have been drilled to service more distant and discrete lease blocks and there is no development on-going around the Zahorsky and Dacoma SWD's. However we know that there is a network of brine pipelines, no doubt partly to allow IOF to pick and choose what is delivered to IO#2, and to divert the remainder elsewhere.

So the likely site of IO#3 is at the Lohmann SWD, which has a 70,000 bwpd capacity. However I'll just throw in a wildcard, based on the May permits – does close proximity mean as little as say 10 metres? My estimate (in 13101) of the capacity of the Longhurst SWD was about 51,000 bwpd, but that was discounting some open hole bore through non-Arbuckle formations, so could be nearer 60k? If that was the case the most efficient use of resources, if it suited the available ppms and the brine line network, would be to put the two 30k plants side by side. Probably wrong, but an interesting prospect.

[che7win] 29/5/2013 21:08

Even Investec forecast EPS of 24p next year and they are conservative. I think the run rate should be EPS 24p at the end of this year on 6 plants running full capacity.

If I factor in another 6 plants on a lower 200 PPM next year we should be at ~35p EPS end of next year.

P/E 25 would be 875p, add another few pounds to that for water/oil/gas.

DYOR, but I believe a forward P/E of 10 is much too low.

[worraps] 29/5/2013 20:54

I haven't met you, skylite......but good luck. The second ones can arrive quickly, so be ready!

[skylite] 29/5/2013 20:29

Well you must have set something off Pete, missus skylite has just started having contractions; either that or she's moaning unnecessarily whilst the rugby is on. She's got previous for that.

[peterz] 29/5/2013 20:22

Sky - No.2 making you wait too (Like IOF). The waiting will be worth it :-)

[n3tleylucas] 29/5/2013 20:19

Nothing for you dreamers to worry your heads about;

[n3tleylucas] 29/5/2013 20:12

– IO#3,IO#4,IO#5 and IO#6 online

4 to go then

–Strong positive cash flow

That's why you issued a $15m junk bond eh.

–Optimise balance sheet and return on assets by utilising debt (bond sorted since then)

See above

–Triple digit organic growth in revenues and net earnings

What net earnings? You are loss-making!

–Multiple IOsorb™ sites built simultaneously

No, 4 comes after 3. Then 5, then 6.

–Exit rate 2013 as the largest iodine producer in North America

Hasn't a similar target been missed already?

[1madmarky] 29/5/2013 19:57

Good news indeed pcjoe - thanks for posting

[skylite] 29/5/2013 19:47

Hi Pete, no #2 doesn't seem to want to come out. Maybe she's waiting for 250p.

[pcjoe] 29/5/2013 19:42

Todays Email from IOF re securing Iodine leases in our Oklahoma target area & update on any possible competition moving in on the area -

"Our leasing in Oklahoma is going very well. We have yet to experience any competition in the area.

Due to the competitive nature of our brine leasing in an area that the Company believes to be an "iodine hotspot", I am unable to provide any further information."

All ticketyboo on that front then..

[superg1] 29/5/2013 18:58

Plas

Easy that one.

2013 Focus
Substantial progress goals expected in core businesses:

Iodine production wide scale rollout

– IO#3,IO#4,IO#5 and IO#6 online
–Strong positive cash flow
–Optimise balance sheet and return on assets by utilising debt (bond sorted since then)
–Triple digit organic growth in revenues and net earnings
–Multiple IOsorb™ sites built simultaneously 
–Exit rate 2013 as the largest iodine producer in North America


Taking the last line that would mean in excess of 1500mt or in excess of $90 mill revenue as a 2013 exit rate.

More per quarter than they did in the year for 2012.

Water revenue may be around by then at $2.2m per month at $1 pb just for the first depot, we have no idea right now on how much hot water they would do.

I'm not sure why some find the math so confusing, perhaps that's why so many put cash it in the bank, not realising what 2/3% returns on investments.

[monty panesar] 29/5/2013 18:57

Just to back up what I have been saying it is estimated between 800m and 2bn people globally are suffering from iodine deficiency disorders. It only needs a small percentage of those to be converted to increase demand a lot IMHO.

[monty panesar] 29/5/2013 18:48

I have been reading the latest SQM presentation. I had thought the main growth in the market place would come from X-ray/LCD markets but in reality I think the real growth will come from the uses related to human growth and nutrition which makes up 40pc of the consumption.

Growth in this segment could be huge with better awareness. Here I am thinking of it as a supplement for pregnancy. We now know iodine deficiency leads to thicko kido's.Obviously as the emerging economies become more affluent more people will take iodine to counteract thyroid problems.

My main point is better awareness could increase human demand significantly.