Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[n3tleylucas] 30/5/2013 11:44

Dropping back nicely, L2 Diggers? Don't be shy ...

[neddo] 30/5/2013 11:37

I watched a documentary about water in the small towns in chile , I think their is going to be a lot of trouble, these companies are taking the water from the locals who can,t grow their crops because it has been stolen from them, and their govt are taking no notice of them , I see trouble ahead, their cattle and crops are withering away ,

[beercapafn] 30/5/2013 10:27

Captain Kurt... That was a good read, Billions of investment halted for the sake of water needed to glue all the parts together. Thanks.

[jointer13] 30/5/2013 10:16

good find ck
there is only one way in my opinion to extract iodine.
and guess who has the tech.

"But nowhere is the need for water more apparent than in Chile's 600-mile-long Atacama, the world's driest desert. The Zaldivar copper mine was built nearly two decades ago when securing water rights was both easier and cheaper than today.

"In Northern Chile, there is no underground water for new projects, so any new project will require seawater, desalinated or not," said Diego Hernandez, chief executive of Antofagasta, which uses raw seawater to process copper at its Esperanza mine.

Desalination is an alternative that does not come cheap. BHP Billiton estimates that using desalinated sea water triples water costs"

[chumbo] 30/5/2013 10:00

Thanks, points taken

[diggulden] 30/5/2013 09:52

Chumbo, I wouldn't expect another update from Investec until we either get a production update once IO3 and/or IO4 are online or there is news on the water permit.

[skylite] 30/5/2013 09:43

It's in everyone's interest that Iof stay under the radar and don't attract too much industry attention and that includes First Columbus, who have employees with millions of shares. If an offer at some point is the obvious scenario then they are just part of an elaborate game of understatement, as are Investec, to keep things low key and stable (for the time being). I would treat most of what they say with a pinch of salt.

[chumbo] 30/5/2013 09:30

Do we have any idea when Investec might update their guidance? I had a sense it might be some time post AGM?

[warrensearle] 30/5/2013 09:27

Super G I agree and as jeff said he wants to try to stay under the radar until end of this year after which point it will be impossible to do so - and as you yourself have said at that point we will be hurting the long established competition - they won't just shrug their shoulders and carry on they will take us out - the good thing is many of the board have a lot of experience in extracting maximum shareholder benefit in that scenario

[superg1] 30/5/2013 09:22

Warren

As the full story isn't out there re what they have, then value wise anyone interested won't currently realise the potential IOF have.

They have already said they have 100 plus sites. They talk of an aggressive roll out over the next 12 to 18 months which could mean 12 to 20 plants.

I for one won't be falling off my chair if that equates to 5000 to 10,000 mt of production rates.

That may sound a bit hot compared to the First Columbus note which has a generic io3 at 125mt, but that's where research pays off.

We can all see the Miss play is a boom in it's infancy.

[liquid millionaire] 30/5/2013 09:18

PRS



As i mentioned yesterday the book has now closed for the Bison Energy IPO

[n3tleylucas] 30/5/2013 09:15

The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.

[pcjoe] 30/5/2013 09:11

Che - I like a conservative approach but re your figures I would imagine that the run rate at year end 2014 would be greater than twice x that for year end 2013 and not less than

I would expect 2013 installed plant to be performing better & hopefully also new mobile plant contributing significantly to 2014 year end run rate figures

With regard to new 2014 plant - the whole installation process should be much slicker by then and hopefully we will see a production benefit from that too

[liquid millionaire] 30/5/2013 09:10

PRS



Lots and lots going on at PRS. Caught up very briefly with NL again. BRDY and Bison Energy news expected shortly. Exciting times for PRS shareholders!

[triktrak] 30/5/2013 08:34

TFC,

Investec are saying £30.7m for FY2014 and eps of 24.12p.

[warrensearle] 30/5/2013 08:27

Scrutable you were at the presentation you couldn't have sat any closer to jeff - didnt you listen to what he was saying? of course there is eventually going to be a takeover something this board of directors have huge experience in getting value for shareholders out of. As super G has pointed out if we are as successful as they anticipate we will start to hurt some very large companies who will swoop in and take us out simple market dynamics I though an old hand like you would appreciate that ?

[escapetohome] 30/5/2013 08:05

I think Scrut invests in other shares to spread the risk a little - black swan striking any one of them could happen.
Obviously the largest portion in IOF

[warmsun] 30/5/2013 08:00

supreme mo, you put it into better words than I am able, thank you.

[the fat controller] 30/5/2013 07:36

Che7win,
"Even Investec forecast EPS of 24p next year and they are conservative. I think the run rate should be EPS 24p at the end of this year on 6 plants running full capacity.

If I factor in another 6 plants on a lower 200 PPM next year we should be at ~35p EPS end of next year."

Where do Investec say EPS of 24p next year? I thought they said ant profits of £4.1 this year, and over £10m next year. £10m equates to 7.9p EPS, doesn't it? Or am I missing something?

Can you clarify please?
TFC

[superg1] 30/5/2013 07:35

A decent report that cover the Miss play and the area involved re IOF.



Sandridge have 380 wells planned this year. As for Swd's they currently do 5 wells per SWD, but plant to do 10 wells per SWD.

Chesa have a similar size acreage. It's a lot of potential sites to put plants.

[supreme mo] 30/5/2013 07:30

Scrutable.

If you look at my post - it was following a discussion on the payments of excess cash as dividends. My suggestion was to use the cash to get as many plants running which would mean any suitor is forced to pay a much higher valuation if they were to bid.

I agree with warmsun 485, I (like you) don't want to be taken over as I see significant long term value here, but we live in a world where everyone has a price. Hypothetically speaking if a £6 bid came in tomorrow, most institutions would snap the hand off the bidder right now, whereas a potential £15-£20 in 2 years would be the more sensible option to wait!! By getting more plants up and running sooner, would mean a higher takeout price, simple.

In the London presentation, Jeff reminded us of something which give me confidence. Lance and Chris Fay have vast experience in the M&A area and looking at Chris Fay's background he has a history of extracting significant value out of companies, so if someone did want to buy us, I don't think they would be naive enough to accept a low price....

I do think we have to face facts through Scrutable, that a fully functioning IO1, 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10... machine is likely to create interest from competitors (or other businesses) - we cannot ignore this.

[superg1] 30/5/2013 07:17

Che

I don't think you need to factor in ppm's of 200 for any of the first 12 (research).

It's good to keep things underplayed though, so that we don't set our sights too high.

However when you look at the EPS you mention and share price it may seem nuts to some, but on the research for potential production levels it is well within our grasp.

[superg1] 30/5/2013 07:11

Good work Rug (as always)

I too believe io3 will be close to io2. I note the number of SWD.s in the locality in woods is up to 5 with another in Alfalfa.

When I looked many months back, the plans for the then 5 SWD's was 60k bpd each.

That would leave room for 2 plants at each location as and when the are up to the 60k bpd rate.

Each new well adds 5k bpd to the pot. As we know from presentations, as the 30k plants seems to work so well, there is no point tinkering with them, and up-sizing in the initial roll out.

[n3tleylucas] 30/5/2013 01:49

See? You got bored, now you have roused them.

They do not understand about swings.

I tried to explain a swift 33% turn to someone yesterday. They don't understand trading v long-term growth.

Explain it all to them.