Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[chillpill] 09/5/2024 20:35

I think management shoot themselves in the foot a bit by not talking more about the complexities of identifying and building new plants. I know some of it is for competitive reasons but all the permitting and acquisition of land etc is not that easy.
Management having been all bad. They stopped them from going bust and did a great job fixing the debt. Been to conservative? With hindsight probably.

[fft] 09/5/2024 11:02

That is the correct theory about having in-house vertical integration etc etc.Except, do you remember many years ago when we had the last iodine price spike ? Mgmt blew everyone's revenue and profit expectations out of the water by forward selling for a year nearly all the chemical divisions products at the lowest price for the year :-). Hard to make up, but they were selling iodine derivative products for less than they could have sold the raw iodine in the spot market. And no one seemed to know before the results came out. Not even the mighty SuperG who claimed to have the inside line.....Different management (though I think Tom was running the chemical side) and Lance was around as well.It is hard to overestimate the ability of IOF mgmt over the years to come up with a blinder !

[chillpill] 09/5/2024 10:13

Beer,

In ref to 8864 question in theory more that gets processed through Iofina Chemical the better as you have a value added value product. That is the whole point of having a vertically integrated company.


Knowing the volumes of iodine were going to increase the expansion of in-house products has arguably been lacklustre.


Probably another question for the AGM!

[chillpill] 09/5/2024 09:59

Ultimately higher growth is better than dividends as long as the Return on Invested Capital is good- which it definitely is at current prices.

[j4ckster] 09/5/2024 09:55

Thanks for sharing Tackems👍

[tackems] 09/5/2024 09:27

I emailed Tom Becker concerned that the share seemed to be languishing in the depths and noted that I had been a shareholder with a significant number (to my mind) for over 15 years. I suggested that a maiden dividend now that we are debt free may change things. Tom kindly replied and I have posted it below:

"Thank you for taking the time to send your email.

We also share your frustrations with the share price. We have continued to grow our revenues, expand our production facilities, and have remained very profitable. However, sentiment for AIM stocks has been subdued for quite some time. Looking across at other growing companies on AIM, we are certainly not the only ones not seeing our growth fully reflected in the share price.

We do hope that stock market sentiment will improve in the coming months with talk of interest rates falling. We continue to engage with potential new investors who like the story and we are committed to bringing new holders onto the share register. In terms of growth, we continue to invest in R&D and IO#10 is on track to come into production in Q3 2024, whilst further new plants are in negotiation and planning phases.

Noting your question re. dividends, currently, our strategy is to reinvest our cash for growth. However, we do review this policy on an ongoing basis, including share buybacks.

If you are due to attend this year’s AGM, I would be very happy speak to you and further address these questions or any others you may have.

Kind regards,

Tom"

So slow and steady continues and all in all I think I will stick with them even though I am just at breakeven.

[chillpill] 09/5/2024 09:10

Naph,

Looking at the planning application and other comments from TB it does look like IO#9 is different from the early plants.

IO#9 appears to have been set up as part of a “closed loop” system with the brine going through a filtration and separation system before being returned to Ovintiv. If I am right it means a greener solution and means capacity is not restricted by SWD injection restrictions.

Just my observation. Worth asking for clarification at the AGM.

Did look at the Ovintiv results on Tuesday. They are spending another $100m+ in the area this year bringing another 7-10 net wells.

I think the reason IO#9 didn’t come on line as fast as we would have liked is we were waiting on the new oil wells being drilled. Iofina were only part of the project.

FWIW I think IO#10 is with Ovintiv and they didn’t commit to the second plant until the first one was fully operational…which is reasonable.

[naphar] 08/5/2024 22:54

Do we know when the AGM is yet? I don’t recall finding it in the results rns

[naphar] 08/5/2024 22:51

Hi Chill

Reading the note in full I was somewhat surprised by the production forecasts and all that goes with them such as Capex etc. the speed of rollout was surprisingly quick given how long 9-11 are taking.

I know they added resources but the bottleneck seems to be the contracting with oil co’s so I am interested to learn at the AGM how they will speed that up.

[nellyb] 08/5/2024 19:59

beeezzz, hope so. :)

[beeezzz] 08/5/2024 11:48

Looks like a 150k share buy today, maybe some interest coming in this undervalued company..

[beercapafn] 08/5/2024 10:22

Chillpill:

Please, do you have any handle on the selling price difference per KG between Iodine Derivatives and plain Iodine?

Your table would imply a better margin in years to come if it is more than a $.

Thanks, always see your posts as informative and insightful.

[chillpill] 08/5/2024 09:45

This might be of interest and help explain some of the variability in the iodine derivatives business.

Iodine derivatives and prilled volumes sold:
2019 243t
2020 155t
2021 321t
2022 221t
2023 185t
2024 222tE
2025 293tE
2026 342rE

Derivative sales were definitely disappointing last year.

[chillpill] 08/5/2024 09:24

For those that haven’t read the CC note they have the following production expectations:

2024 650t
2025 790t
2026 975t

[chillpill] 08/5/2024 09:21

Exactly fft. I had come to the conclusion they might only built one every 12/18 months however they expanded the team last summer to speed things up with all the permitting, land acquisition etc etc. However the CC confirms the plan is to be faster.

[beercapafn] 08/5/2024 09:15

Nano is different, it has a rebel who got his fingers burned.

[nellyb] 08/5/2024 09:02

for those of you who are pro-share-buy back, nano are currently well into one - still no sign of a share price rise!

[fft] 08/5/2024 08:50

Building a plant every 9 months. Nice one :-). Except that, in reality, it is more like 18 months between plants being completed. They also seem to announce them further and further ahead - I recall that IO11 was announced last August, but groundworks only occurred this January and it will enter production in Q3/Q4 this year.

[chillpill] 08/5/2024 08:23

I think CC have been fairly good. They are better equipped in the resources sector and have a longer list of potential investors.

Personally I preferred the finnCap research. I found it easier to follow.

Although I feel the price is oversold I thought this time last year EBITDA would be running close to $15m when probably it is probably closer to $10m.

With the Company expected to have CAPEX running in the $8-9m range for the next 3 years as they build a plant ever 9 months or so we would need EBITDA running close to $15m before any dividends are paid- that’s my feeling anyway.

[bocker01] 06/5/2024 21:41

I am not sure if the critics read their reports, Naphar. Their expectations being so often wildly at odds with what we are told to expect. Cannacord seem succinct and on the money to me. Their reports are informative and contain a lot of useful detail. Certainly far more so than predecessors.

[naphar] 06/5/2024 16:46

One of them ever seem to have done a great job?
But do we really see what they do? I don’t think so….. we just see the share price.
When they were employed I seem to recall being told by Lance that they were significantly more proactive than the previous lot, but maybe that was early enthusiasm playing out…

[chillpill] 05/5/2024 23:18

Not sure on Canaccord. Used to be around £40-50k pa to be a Nomad.

[j4ckster] 05/5/2024 13:07

"Canaccord are not doing a great job!!"

txi, I was thinking the same too.

[beercapafn] 05/5/2024 13:04

Does any know how much IOF pays Canaccord for their services. ?

Please.