International Distributi... Share Discussion Threads

[tuftymatt] 18/11/2022 15:57

It's a no brainer in my mind.

Shareholders will get the GLS "value" and the UK government will take on the rest. Shame as I would sooner it stayed together and operated successfully but if it can't then so be it.

[prokartace] 18/11/2022 15:05

This from today:
Hargreaves: IDS inches closer to Royal Mail split
Royal Mail owner International Distribution Services (IDS) will not pay an interim dividend as it struggles with a near-£60m loss, which Hargreaves Lansdown says could catalyse a split in the group.

IDS saw half-year revenue fall 3.9% to £5.8m, driven by a 10.5% drop in Royal Mail revenue that was only partially offset by a 9.5% rise in revenues at European parcels division GLS. After reporting an operating loss of £57m, the board decided not to pay an interim dividend. The shares closed slightly down at 239.5p.

Analyst Matt Britzman said the new name ‘hasn’t made old problems go away’, and the group still faces union battles over pay, costly strikes, and declines in letters and parcels, which has left it looking to make as many as 6,000 workers redundant.

‘Royal Mail will no doubt capture headlines, it’s important to remember IDS has another business in GLS,’ he said.

‘The global courier business is a chalk and cheese comparison to Royal Mail – GLS is profitable, and growing revenue. It remains to be seen how long IDS is happy to let GLS pick up the slack from Royal Mail, management have again suggested that a split is on the cards depending on the direction of travel at Royal Mail.’

[tuftymatt] 18/11/2022 14:22

For me it's a rebound off the dip on results and the fact many are anticipating a split in the business next year.

[gilesy911] 18/11/2022 14:20

Why the big rise today ?

[spob] 18/11/2022 11:51

IIRC the pension deficit was taken on by the government when RMG was floated on the stock market

please correct me if wrong

[spob] 18/11/2022 11:50

Pension deficit 50 billion ?

[justiceforthemany] 18/11/2022 10:48

No place for unions in 2022.
We are not in the 1970's anymore.
CWU need to wake up or be abolished.

[tuftymatt] 18/11/2022 10:13

Yes I agree YM,

GLS being sold and some property in the UK too is worth £4 a share easily which I think is the very best we could expect if it came to it. I now hold at 290 avg so am comfortable to chip away at that based on the worst happening.

Stake building to circa 25% by DK isn't being done to see it fall apart and him not make a decent return from it.

[yieldmonkey] 18/11/2022 09:58

@tufymatt

Certainly on paper there appears to be value of the parts in excess of the current share price

....but there is risk to the break up valuation IMHO.

The Government is not stupid. If GLS is sold off, and the proceeds pocketed by shareholders, there is a strong likelihood that the remaining UK business will very quickly fail. Aside from having to bail out the RM last-mile business, the pension fund deficit (currently over £50 BILLION) will far squarely on the UK taxpayers.

So I imagine there are some interesting discussions at a very high level between senior management and the government.

[tuftymatt] 18/11/2022 09:19

More strike action announced and the price remains fairly solid around the 240's.

Thats positive and I will add at 236 to bring my average down. I think the break up is becoming more and more nailed on as every day passes and IA continues.

I am not blaming anyone for the IA but just saying that my view is it will lead to a break up / asset stripping / intervention etc.

[blackhorse23] 18/11/2022 08:29

CURY (LSE) 56 online purchase per minute WOW https://www.retailtimes.co.uk/barclaycard-continues-to-see-increase-in-black-friday-transactions-as-currys-records-56-online-purchases-per-minute/

[blackhorse23] 18/11/2022 08:27

Out for now revisit after all crisis

[justiceforthemany] 17/11/2022 21:00

THE UK GOVERNMENT WOULD BACK A TAKEOVER TO END THIS DISRUPTION.
BE CAREFUL THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE STRIKING.
YOU MAY WELL LOSE YOUR JOBS.

THE PUBLIC IS NOT ON YOUR SIDE.

[isis] 17/11/2022 11:22

They've been told take it or leave it. If they to carry on IA then they will get nothing and possibly lose their jobs. Even the thickest member should understand this.

[casholaa] 17/11/2022 10:49

Split it regionally and go with zero hours contracts.

[isis] 17/11/2022 10:35

It didn't stop Coal Mines being closed or Cars being produced in the 70's and 80s,
Clearly the Unions are past their sell by date and need to get upto the 21st Century.
The Business is a basket case whoever runs it without new working practices.

[yieldmonkey] 17/11/2022 10:12

I think the unions would be delighted with a split in the business. The rump business would become an uninvestable basket and ripe to be brought back under state control when it inevitably reaches the point losses cant be sustained.

A future government faced with the collapse of the postal service is, despite the long term decline in mail being sent, going to find it impossible not step in due to political pressure to protect "an essential public service"

[fred splange] 17/11/2022 09:14

After that tale of two companies announcement, a split seems inevitable. The executive action will antagonise staff, it's quite easy to cause a lot of disruption even when not on official action, eg swapping a few York labels to misdirect mail. The expectation, as documented today, of only 4 further days of industrial action is blindly optimistic. Big trouble ahead in their busiest period.

[tuftymatt] 17/11/2022 08:51

I took some more at 231 and am wondering if the big players are not looking to shake out smaller holders and build positions ahead of a split?

[tuftymatt] 17/11/2022 07:51

Difficult times but there is value in the break up should it come.

I would sooner the two businesses stay and function correctly but if it can't happen then a break up will come in 23 by the looks of it. The recent video on here has one of the major shareholders thinking of 450 a share if my memory is correct should this be broken up. That's based on GLS and UK property value.