International Distributi... Share Discussion Threads

[not my real name] 29/12/2022 08:08

harrybenHarry,

If you made 120k in 2 months why are you poncing about on here trying to scam would-be investors?

It's not that I find it difficult to believe you, it's just that you're a bullshi77ing little scumbag.

Good luck,

NMRN

[lennonsalive] 28/12/2022 23:26

Well, Christmas cards arrived today. I have to say the strikes are causing massive harm to the business. Do the unions not understand they don't have a monopoly on parcels anymore. EBay are advising sellers to use alternative carriers, I have been anyway since November. Special delivery parcel sent before Christmas arrived toddy too

[casholaa] 25/12/2022 22:40

Yeah, I saw that the other day. Nothing like a bit of training coupled with a top-class work ethic.

[31337 c0d3r] 25/12/2022 17:18

Pity RM was privatised..

[not my real name] 25/12/2022 10:17

Casholaa,

"Losses from different directions"

I don't understand what you mean by this. RM lost £219m in the 6 months to September. GLS made a profit of £162m in the same period. This resulted in a combined loss of £57m.

The circa £2bn share price is due to analysts pretty much agreeing that GLS is worth around £4bn and RM around -£2bn. RM has plenty of assets which could be sold on in the event of total collapse and would more than cover all debts and provide a small return of cash to shareholders. This should leave GLS as a standalone company with a share price of around £4.

Much has been made of the £50bn pension black hole but ever since day 1 of the privatisation this has been the sole responsibility of HM government.

I don't really see why the share price is so low at the moment and can only imagine it is the uncertainty rather than reality that is keeping it so low. Apparently, all will be revealed by the end of January!

We can but hope!

NMRN

[casholaa] 24/12/2022 21:40

Yeah, but the value of the assets is undermined by the losses from different directions.

[lennonsalive] 24/12/2022 21:03

Maybe not with the assets

[casholaa] 24/12/2022 13:19

When I look at the 5 year chart, it's pretty much showing what was in 2019, but it IDS and the general economic times, leave me with the impression that things are now worse than ever before. Am I the only one that thinks the IDS share price is well overpriced and doing that Wile E. Coyote stepping off a cliff moment???

[lennonsalive] 24/12/2022 11:26

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11567141/Royal-Mail-issues-stark-warning-workers-prepare-strike-again.html

[lefrene] 23/12/2022 16:11

Yes I noticed nepotism was rife at Severn Beach, which led to unsuitable lazy persons running the traffic office. Never mind not having any driving experience, literally too fat to climb into a cab.

Lets hope if they're building another major hub, they manage to build one that doesn't have traffic pinch points in it. But if it all goes pop perhaps somebody else will be running it.

I'm keeping an eye on this one, but not ready to jump in yet, although large buying by the Czech is a big positive.

[not my real name] 23/12/2022 14:40

lefrene,

There's a new superhub being built at Crick right now. Due to open in the middle of next year I think. More than double the size of the current one the rumour is that all regional transport will be running out of there so will include 7.5t, 19t and artics. Not sure what will happen to South Mids but from my experiences down there it needs burning down and the lot of them be sacked. Get some fresh blood who understand what a days work looks like. Maybe take the cream of Amazon/DPD/Tuffnell/DHL etc. I know loads of good lads who would love to work for RM but it's dead mens' shoes being filled with friends and family right now. No way to run a modern business.

"and once customers find they can get as good a service for less cost elsewhere they're unlikely to come back"

I'm pretty sure they're not getting a better service...RM are very good, and usually cheaper, with small parcels delivery normally. They fall down a bit with the larger stuff as I don't think they really want it but that is fairly easy to rectify. Just needs someone with a bit of vision and a half-sensible approach from the unions to achieve it.

Anyway, we should have a good idea where things are heading in the next 6 months or so and I fully expect to get a multi-bagger on my investment at £2.14 average if RM can be turned round. If not, I can still see a 50% uplift from GLS as a standalone so happy days both ways.

NMRN

Lennonsalive,

Thanks for the vote of confidence. :-)

[lennonsalive] 23/12/2022 14:08

Thanks for the insightful update. You certainly know your stuff

[lefrene] 23/12/2022 13:15

Thanks for that info Not My R N, It's such a simple business, it's the dead hand of government insisting on the outdated universal service model, plus forcing RM to deliver the other carriers mail at a loss. The trunking is the easy cheap end of the job, it's the last mile requiring huge numbers of vans and drivers that costs all the money. It's an insight into the belligerence of inept government meddling that causes huge damage, which they take no responsibility for.

So the Union bosses have seen the light? About 3 weeks too late, goodwill will have melted away, and once customers find they can get as good a service for less cost elsewhere they're unlikely to come back.

As for sharing transport between PF and RM, they must have some mechanism for accounting for it. But it was quite common to run mail up to the hub at Crick and then go over to Coventry to swap trailers for one loaded with parcels. Trailer theft by PF had to be watched out for, as they would try to dump a ratty old trailer onto RM, when RM was exchanging a good one. The DC at Severnbeach supplied traction to both RM and PF, sometimes runs dedicated to one or other of the branches, and quite often runs swapping between the two businesses.

I hope your £7k top up comes good, I notice the big Czech investor bought a few million more recently. It would seem he has a plan, and I suspect letting RM go bust would suit his plan.

[not my real name] 23/12/2022 12:43

tuftymatt,

I don't think there's any problem winning the customers back. The rivals have all struggled with the excess volumes and hardly covered themselves in glory. The market is still there for RM, they just need to reform their archaic work methods and help themselves. You don't lose 500 years of trust after the only national strike since privatisation. There is also a fair bit of public sympathy will all strikers right now. Everyone is struggling to some extent and most are trying to get more money out of their employer so RM is not unique there.

Recessions are usually bad news for everyone but in our industry they are particularly bad for the small players and RM definitely aint small so there could be a long term benefit for them if they can just get their act together.

Lennonsalive,

No strikes planned or threatened for next year................yet.

NMRN

[lennonsalive] 23/12/2022 12:11

Are there strikes planned for 2023?

[tuftymatt] 23/12/2022 12:04

Hi NMRN,

How to you think winning back customers trust / respect will go after such a lot of problems this peak season?

I really hope a settlement is reached in Jan and we push on as one company but sorting out the £1m a day loss with even less of a customer base going into a recession is the concern I have.

Merry Christmas and thanks again for your updates 👍🏻

[not my real name] 23/12/2022 11:03

Hi lefrene,

I agree with everything you said about the unhelpful staff. I am in the Midlands and it's the same here. I don't know if there is much co-operation between PF and RM but that will obviously be something they will be looking at. There is a massive amount of overlap so better integration could generate huge savings.

I think I have said before that I believe the real money is to be made from developing RM in the way the company are proposing. GLS is a valuable asset but it pales into insignificance when compared to RM. RM has the trusted brand name, massive infrastructure and property ownership, and the potential to destroy DPD and all the other mickey mouse companies currently cluttering up the space. If it was allowed to go under there is still value in GLS to more than compensate shareholders for the loss of RM but to successfully re-structure RM could, I believe, reap large multiples of the current share price.

I bought another tranche of £7k this morning so this is now my 3rd biggest investment after Shell and BP but I firmly believe it will turn out to be my biggest one in very short order.

I heard from a senior Union official that they are now looking to settle the dispute and are close to doing so. A few "minor issues to iron out" were his exact words hence my rush to get in quickly this morning.

They feel the tide is turning against them and if they don't settle soon they are in danger of losing credibility. Also, the company are under no obligation to keep offering the 9% current offer if they keep rejecting it. Once rejected the company are quite entitled to say if you don't want it then we withdraw the pay offer and walk away from negotiations. Where does the union stand then?

All IMHO.

NMRN

[lefrene] 22/12/2022 15:55

Not my real name. I have in the past done a lot of trunking work for RM, and it's noticeable how local some cultures can be. London certainly the worst for poor work ethic and being generally unhelpful. The North very into job demarcation and elf n safety, as an excuse to be unhelpful. Of course it's always a minority that are the awkward squad, but that minority seems to hold sway over others.

But from a value point of view what will be the trigger here to improve the price. My guess it will be RM being allowed to go bust.

The Parcel Force side has a lot of so called self employed van drivers, so I guess they're not going to strike as the contract obliges them to provide another driver if they can't work. Presumably they also get no compensation if the employed sorters are not providing them with parcels to deliver? A different dynamic to the Mail side of things. I have wondered how the two businesses sort out the sharing of the heavy trucks, since there's a lot of overlap between the two operations.

At least the strikes now means there will be a bit of work for agency drivers well into January clearing the backlog, a period normally a bit thin for temporary drivers.

[lennonsalive] 22/12/2022 15:37

He constantly spams threads about Curry's retail

[rudder] 22/12/2022 10:53

Blackhorse-paid wramber or just plain stupid.

[geckotheglorious] 22/12/2022 10:35

Not just Lazy...
Some of them cant even bloody read.
Sick of the number of times my mail gets delivered to the house(with the same number) in the next road.

[blackhorse23] 22/12/2022 10:11

Sold my remaining stock & bought CURY