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[hamhamham1] 14/3/2020 16:44

Its official now

[hamhamham1] 14/3/2020 16:43

Asus. If you can't read between the lines there jeez!

[1 nhs] 14/3/2020 16:39

It’s all over for this airline.

END

[asusasus] 14/3/2020 16:37

But he hasn't though. He said they have looked at it and they will announce it. Quite why he can't announce it now is a mystery.

[watfordhornet] 14/3/2020 16:31

What good will that do?

[1 nhs] 14/3/2020 16:27

It’s all over

Just shut up shop, as my recommendation weeks ago.

Pay off the staff and walk

[asusasus] 14/3/2020 16:17

Expected is not the same as fact. Link anyone?

[loganair] 14/3/2020 16:16

It is all over the news that the US is expected to ban all flights from the UK and Ireland as from Monday mid-night.

[asusasus] 14/3/2020 16:13

Anyone have a link where it states US to ban UK flights?

[milliecusto] 14/3/2020 16:12

Penny stock by end of next week

[jailbird] 14/3/2020 16:11

News coming out US will extend ban of flights from UK and Ireland Will be announced today

[watfordhornet] 14/3/2020 16:10

Yes - not good news

[1 nhs] 14/3/2020 15:53

Here we go , ( as predicted )

By another

13
The end of airlines
Posted on March 14 2020

2020 is going to be the most extraordinary year which will live long in the memory of all those who survive it, which I hope to do.

Most of us will get coronavirus. Outside the UK many will survive. Here a smaller proportion will, entirely as a result of the decision of the government to encouraged the mass spread of the disease.

Simultaneously, we are already witnessing one of the biggest stock market crashes in history. The situation is volatile, but the only way is down for some time still to come in my opinion.

This crash is going to be followed by an economic crisis unless governments intervene on unprecedented scales (which they can) as record numbers of businesses in a wide range of sectors will fail, and hundreds of thousands, if not millions of jobs will be lost.

Worse, the risk that all the failings of financial capitalism, accumulated over 40 years, will become apparent simultaneously is very high: markets built on the flimsiest of foundations, such as the zero cost of capital that most banks have enjoyed for the last decade, will prove to be unsustainable and a domino effect will emerge.

At the same time enforced behavioural change will make it apparent to people that we really do have to change our lifestyles if we are, as a worldwide community, to also survive climate change and beat its consequences.

Combine all those factors and some quite extraordinary things are going to happen, including the complete elimination of some business sectors that have become so commonplace to many of us that their disappearance is very hard to imagine, and yet has to be contemplated, nonetheless.

I will offer an example. I suggest that the entire worldwide airline industry is probably going to cease to exist as we currently know it before the year is out.

British Airways has said that it is living through an unprecedented crisis. It has said that jobs will be lost, aircraft will be mothballed, routes will be closed, and that it has no idea what the impact of this will be. Lufthansa has already provided the answer to that last point: it has already applied to the German government for financial assistance to prevent it becoming insolvent. That is a pattern that I am quite sure every single airline will follow. I would suggest that there is, quite literally, none outside the state-owned sector that has anything like the financial resources to survive the crisis they now face.

Transatlantic flights are in lockdown.

Travel restrictions that will prevent mass tourism this summer are incredibly likely.

People are already exploring ways to work without having to travel.

And the idea that people will, whilst self-isolating, think about booking overseas holidays is fanciful, to say the least.

What is more, given that there was already a move against air travel because people are increasingly aware of its deeply destructive carbon footprint, once an unawareness that we can survive without getting airborne exists the demand for air travel, if and when it is recreated, is likely to be at a much lower level than in the past. A significant overall future reduction in demand is the almost inevitable consequence of the change that this sector will see this year.

In combination I suggest that this means that not a single commercial airline in the world can now be considered a going concern. And, given the likely duration of this crisis, I repeat that I expect every single one of them to fail. In the sector that is characterised by enormous investment in assets, the vast majority of which are paid for with long-term debt, which is unlikely to be waived as a consequence of the changes that are taking place at present, insolvency is the only, and inevitable outcome for every airline now in existence. I see no way around that.

Unless, of course, governments pretend, as they did in 2008, that 'there is no alternative' (the TINA scenario) to then save every airline. Except that the UK government response to Flybe suggests that this is unlikely. In that case a whole sector of commercial activity is, quite literally, going to come to an end.

I stress, I am not saying that we will never see a plane in flight again: that would be absurd. Very clearly that will happen. But whoever might be operating those planes in the future is very unlikely to be a company that is currently in existence.

What we will see is a reversion to the type of airline industry that existed when I was in my youth. Back then ( and it really was 'back then' in these terms) the vast majority of airlines were state-owned, and existed as what were known as 'national flag carriers'. National pride required that every country had such an operator, however much it cost to support it, and that cost was very often quite significant. This, I suspect, will be the new normal in this industry. But the result will be that states will make the decisions on air travel, and if they take climate change seriously this is going to mean that the era of massive air travel growth (which has been up about 50% since 2008) will be over.

This is going to be tough.

It will be tough on airlines.

And tough on their employees.

And the impact on the long haul destinations, in particular, and the other sectors that serve them, like cruising, will be harsh.

Surviving coronavirus is going to be tough. And when we get to the other side the world is going to look very different from what we have been used to. This time it really will be different

[m1k3y1] 14/3/2020 15:23

jailbird......I agree. Life will continue once this chaos has calmed down. It may take time but the upward trend will continue.

[jailbird] 14/3/2020 15:07

It is not Armageddon for everyone even though it will feel like it is for many.
Once numbers have peaked, it will turnaround slowly.

IAG will survive but there were many other airlines and Cos that will fail.

It is global reset - unimaginable and unprecedented .
We needed a reset but maybe not of this level.

Boom will start again...because that is what the human race does

[m1k3y1] 14/3/2020 15:05

ham...indeed.

tornado....agree about airport workers and support staff. A lot of them will be zero hours also I guess.

[tornado12] 14/3/2020 14:52

We talk about hard times of airlines but what about the 1000s working at airports and supporting services ! It’s a complete and utter disaster and most companies will take years to pay back any low interest loans. It’s clear survival instinct must be triggered and nothing taken off table ... sub 300p coming soon

[1 nhs] 14/3/2020 14:37

I HAVE BEEN WARNING FOR WEEKS THAT IT WAS TIME TO PUT YOUR FAMILY FIRST AND TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION

HAS THE GREAT 2020 DEPRESSION OFFICIALLY STARTED :


1 NHS 27 Feb '20 - 02:25 edit

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Yes it has, unfortunately 99.9999% of the worlds population can’t yet see it yet.

Eventually they will.

Mankind is facing a pandemic of unimaginable magnitude and suffering, combined with a world drowning in debt, that has zero chance of being repaid.

It is absolutely vital that you put family first , particular children

We are not far off, forced sellers of ALL ASSETS, (bar Gold , for immediate delivery)

Paper gold, might as well be flushed down the toilet.

I have no predictions on the outcome of this terrible virus.

I do have some predictions on the likely financial outcomes

1/ Most shares are not far off worthless as profits will be extinguished for years, even then, investors might pay a pe of 3 for the the best growth stocks.

2/ Most bonds ( company and government ) worthless as everyone defaults.

3/ House Tiny values after banks go bust and stop lending. No one has a job.

4/ Land for food production has some value but needs to be protected.

Trust in business goes down the pan in a straight line, world trade dries up as everyone wants to be paid up front.

The only medium of exchange for goods and services that CAN BE TRUSTED BY ALL is, GOLD.

No one wants printed sheets of toilet paper. ( money

It’s about to turn on a sixpence.

Governments will furnish the world with yet more, free cash, but they can’t control the mindset of the people, or the virus.

From now on, it’s about staying alive and doing your bit for others Add FavouriteE-mail AlertSkip Header
1 NHS 27 Feb '20 - 02:25 edit
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[hamhamham1] 14/3/2020 14:34

Who knows what the new normal will be after this?

[m1k3y1] 14/3/2020 14:18

ham.....the question I would ask is , are the Chinese going to change their eating habits and will they ever be held accountable for the chaos this has caused worldwide ?

[hamhamham1] 14/3/2020 14:09

The unknown consequence of this is what will business travellers do in 3 or 5 years time. Will it all be back to normal or will virtual meetings take over on th3 back of this and to be greener. No one knows.

[waikenchan] 14/3/2020 14:03

I agree they had to do it. However they are not going to do unless companies have their backs to the wall. Take the auto industry in the US in 2008. Chrysler was ready to file for bankrucpy.