International Consolidat... Share Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 06/3/2020 11:04

Bulls desperately trying to hold 400p,If not on its way to the 2014 low of 315p.

[montyhedge] 06/3/2020 11:00

Dow looking ugly again.

[smithys2019] 06/3/2020 10:47

I don’t mind shorters. They provide a useful aid in providing liquidity in illiquid markets. It’s the other side of the coin. They also generally spread fear and allow the human condition to generate oversold stocks, which is great for buying a bargain, as long as you have the nerve.

As for central banks, don’t think we will see tarp2 or massive QE until this goes full blown exponential growth pandemic. We ain’t there yet and there is evidence it is petering our.

[dround87] 06/3/2020 10:41

Mikey this particular world event is highly relevant is it not? Now I'm both long and short on IAG both as a long term holder of IAG shares and as a short term holder of an inverted tracker fund so I feel as though I'm perfectly entitled to post here and I want to discus Covid. It's important. The fact shorters are here makes this interesting. That's exactly what they are. So what? The market has two sides. If you don't want to read it I'm afraid it's kind of a you problem!

[bookbroker] 06/3/2020 10:27

Central banks have remained steadfastly silent thus far, but they all need to speak as one, interest rate cuts are just band-aids like many things they do. But until they stand together and state their intention to start TARP 2 then markets will drift, wouldn’t surprise me if they ended blue today as these moves suggest the algo’s are even stuck for choice!

[m1k3y1] 06/3/2020 10:23

ham....this is an IAG BB designed for those who have a financial interest in the business.

You do not . If you wish to discuss general world events , I am sure there are other BB's that deal with these subjects.

Meanwhile , I have to question your motives in continually posting negative posts about IAG , when you have no financial interest .

What exactly are you trying to achieve.

[m1k3y1] 06/3/2020 10:20

Monty....there will now be substantial consolidation in the airline industry as a result of this situation. IAG is very well placed to benefit from this and will , undoubtedly emerge much stronger and larger with a greater market share.

In the interim, negative posts designed to damage the business are not helpful to either IAG or it's shareholders.

[hamhamham1] 06/3/2020 10:18

Discussing world events and their affect is what these boards are for, get over yourself. I have never said to sell shares, or buy shares, unlike many others here who repeatedly say bargain buy prices, load up, etc. Personally i think thats worse than pointing out world events.

[dround87] 06/3/2020 10:18

I really don't know why investors are complaining so much. Golden opportunity here to reduce your average. IAG is a strong company. It will survive this. Embrace the shorters. They have a good reason to be here. But for long term holders this is a windfall even though it may not seem like one.

[porsche1945] 06/3/2020 10:18

Looking forward to getting back into these, could be a lovely cheap entry price

[m1k3y1] 06/3/2020 10:13

ham.....just those who are doing their best to damage IAG and who have no financial interest in the business.

Malicious posts are very damaging and I have to question what posters such as this, are trying achieve by posting here.

[montyhedge] 06/3/2020 10:11

The low was around 398p it spiked to on Brexit. This is a lot worse, I reckon years earning wiped out if Coronavirus continues. Cant see an end to it yet and vaccines about 12 months away. 315p I see on capitulation just my view boys.

[smithys2019] 06/3/2020 10:08

Quite a positive outlook from Barclays and the IAG roadshow. Over 2 billion profit in a severe model isn’t exactly bad news!


While keeping its ‘overweight217; stance on the stock in the Anglo-Spanish airline, it trimmed back its valuation to 763p a share from 777p previously.

In doing so its number crunchers also carried out some sensitivity analysis assessing the mid-case and worst-case scenarios in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.

The former is based on a 10% contraction of demand, which Barclays says will lead to a 16% decline in its forecast operating profit for the current year down to £3.083bn.

A 20% “demand shock” coupled with a 1% rise in costs could see 25% wiped from its 2020 predicted profit, which would fall to just £2.3bn.

The feedback from the IAG roadshow was that, like all airlines, it has reduced capacity in affected markets, but has already begun planning to bring capacity back on once the Covid-19 scare is over.

The company also told Barclays that it will not hesitate to cut transatlantic traffic if need be.

In a note to clients, the investment bank said management isn’t changing its capital allocation decisions given the strength of its balance sheet.


[...]

[hamhamham1] 06/3/2020 10:05

M1. I notice you are very selective on who you criticise ;)

[careful] 06/3/2020 10:04

The usual pattern of markets is final capitulation (after an initial fall followed by spasmodic attempts at recovery.)

1929 1974 1987 2003 2008 each followed that pattern.
falls of 95% 35% 35% 45% 45%

I think this virus panic will fizzle out, there is just an absence of news and so many news channels. There is overcapacity in the news industry, too much information.

Headlines such as 'Elderly sick woman dies from latest flu type virus' will no longer fill the headlines.

Brexit chit chat left a big hole to fill.
'a nation divided, will these differences ever be resolves, civil war', etc...who gives a damn about Brexit now, yesterdays news.

my favourite hype, so funny was yesterdays 'dog tested positive for virus in California'

After Brexit they know how gullible and stupid we all are, so they cause panic and chaos to keep us watching and reading.
hilarious.

[daveboy1] 06/3/2020 09:56

Cheers, m1, appreciate the support. You, and a few others on here seem like decent investors all trying to trade info together and assist in increasing knowledge. That is why I came along to begin with. I hope to return in the (not too distant) future to perhaps resuming that.
I have got my holding tucked away med/long term for now, and have some dry powder for top ups across the board as and when. Good luck to you and those other folks also.

[worraps] 06/3/2020 09:54

Sooner or later the Covid-19 will peter out. They always do. If in the meantime, the pessimists and dramatists prognosis comes to be, and many airlines go bust, the surviving ones will be picking up all those people who want to fly. And there is no doubt that IAG will be one of them doing that. So, all those empty seats, and reduced earnings that are happening now, will be more than compensated for in the coming months.

[m1k3y1] 06/3/2020 09:41

If you're not an IAG Investor, why post on this BB ?

[hamhamham1] 06/3/2020 09:39

If you look outside it's raining, people are reporting it's raining, if you think it's sunny then you need to open your curtains and take a look.

[montyhedge] 06/3/2020 09:34

Capitulation has not taken place in the market, until that happens the market will drift lower, with the odd attempted rally.

[m1k3y1] 06/3/2020 09:34

dave...thank you and great shame that you have been driven away by the multitude of negative scare mongers who have taken over this BB.

Posters who hold no IAG shares and don't trade in them but seem determined to do their best to scare people into selling their shareholding in IAG, which is very damaging to the business.

About time that IAG was made aware of people posting negative information about their business on this BB.

[montyhedge] 06/3/2020 09:30

I think 2014 low of 315p, if Coronavirus goes on and gets worst. A years earnings in my view could be wiped out.

[smithys2019] 06/3/2020 09:29

My take on this is that it has turned into a political football that currently being hyped up, so that when things don’t turn out so bad, as they will I reckon in the next month, the Cummings government come up smelling of roses.

As quoted in house of cArds, “We make the Terror”.

[dround87] 06/3/2020 09:27

Well! The wife's sent me out to do a panic shop. Seems I'm not alone! Should be some interesting images in the media today.

[topazfrenzy] 06/3/2020 09:24

This could go down to £1.50 if this virus persists and strenghtens