Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[howdy do da] 30/7/2008 10:01

Well they have enough cash and are quite possibly cash flow positive this or next quarter, so the don't need to go cap-in-hand to investors any more.

I have a strong feeling this stock price issue will be fixed soon enough as there are too many interested parties watching.

[aphrodites] 30/7/2008 09:50

Incidentally, with only 3 MM's when one moves the price the other 2 usually follow.

Several times we have received calls bidding us for stock with an indication that for 50,000 shares they would pay 2/3p above the offer side.

But we have never had a call offering us stock!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[aphrodites] 30/7/2008 09:31

jailbird

I agree with Howdy.

I do have a line into Parris and asked him a number of questions last year which he kindly replied to.

I asked a whole raft of questions amongst which; was KBC PH responsible for identifying the counterparties with whom the shares were placed at 33p? He replied the Placing resulted from an unsolicted offer made by an institution they were introduced to by Pelham, their Financial PR advisers.

I also asked if they held regular meetings with their investing institutions? He replied the recent Placing is the first time they had obtained institutional investment so no pattern had been established. They offer all investors the opportunity to meet and discuss issues with the Board at the Intercede AGM which takes place every year in early July. They had not received any requests from their existing shareholders to meet on a more regular basis.

There were a number of other interesting exchanges which were helpful and showed how exposed an AIM company is to the vagaries of the market.

All C.E.'s are aware of the share price moves of their company in the market although many do not understand the way the games are played or the motives behind certain movements. After all, they are not professional investors and do not make their money from manipulating the share market! That is why their broker, if it is on the ball, should be keeping them informed of price movements.

I think it is best to let this one run its course. I only hope KB PC make the directors fully aware of the implications of what might be going on!

[howdy do da] 30/7/2008 09:05

To be fair to the MM's, they are taking it up on tiny volume too.

[howdy do da] 30/7/2008 08:55

jailbird, they know what's going on. They dont need an email from one of us. RP didn't buy the 20,000 shares as he had loose change in his pocket he bought them to make a statement that the firm is doing just fine and the price 27p is a BUY. The quarterly report update said the same thing. RP owns 17% of IGP, so he probably checks the share price at least as often I we do. (I would, wouldn't you on 17%).

Re who is selling we can only know if they cross a threshold and as it takes around 1m shares to get to a 3% notification threshold, yet only 30,000 share sells to knock the price down 10% the identity will remain hidden for some time yet.

Today will be fascinating and I for one am going to try to build a bigger stake in this as I like the firm and the business model.

[jailbird] 30/7/2008 07:47

APD, HOWDY, or all,

has any of you two ctc'd parris or FD about the drip seller and concerns
that a bidder maybe doing this

Could even hargreaves still be the seller as we do not know how much is still left. can this info be obtained?

[aphrodites] 30/7/2008 06:56

30/7/08

Howdy

I think we are saying nearly the same thing but we are coming from different directions.

I picked 70p as a bid price because the aim appears to be to try and keep it below 30p. It will easily move back up to the mid 30's on very small buying and a bid which offers double the price would seem very attractive to a whole group of shareholders who will have seen the price near treble from a sustained period in the mid 20's.

The recent directors' purchases saw the price jump on very small buying. The seller stood back to see if there was any follow through buying and when there was not back it came to drip more stock into a market with no buyers. Parris and his directors really do need to plan with the company broker how to counteract this constant drip feed selling. Together they need to speak to the institutional holders and having assured them of the well-being of the company make it known to the MM's that there is a willing buyer of stock. Parris's 20k buy at 27p is hardly a statement and the MM's and seller have taken the price back to that level to see if he will be tempted back.

I agree, we do not want a load of village idiots on here but having said that I think we would all welcome a few more long term shareholders. But what's the definition of a long term holder these days?

The point you make about poor liquidity being a deterrent to an institution building a stake supports my argument that the company had this opportunity when Hargreave Hale was allowed to climb on board and buy 6% of the company at 33p. when the price just 3 weeks before had been trading above 70p. There were no strings or bells attached to the placement and this institution has done more harm than good by being a seller. I hope the F.D. has learned a lesson.

The helpful but cautious earnings guidance "enhanced earnings" and "possible £15m over next 5 years" may not be bullish enough for serious investors but it will attract potential predators with cash burning holes in their pockets. In fact the statement was almost like waving the "white flag" for surrender. If I was Parris and felt that IGP was now secure in its business model moving forwards I would very seriously consider discussing with my bankers and major shareholders taking the company private. But this does depend on the company establishing profitability and a positive cash flow which will allow it to survive and grow under its own steam.

On the basis I have outlined I am not looking for a seller who wants change. I want to be able to identify who is playing silly b---gers and is assisting a would-be predator who thinks IGP would sit very nicely within its own business model and would enhance earnings.

Good luck with your purchases. We bought another chunk in April at an average price of 32p and immediately saw the price jump to nearly 45p in early May in take-over speculation. It does go to show what someone will have to pay to get hold of IGP and why keeping a lid on it around 25p is so important.

Enough of my ramblings. I have aired my views and will now go back into hibernation in the knowledge that we have a sound investment but would certainly consider a 70p bid as being very attractive at this time. If Parris wants IGP to keep its stock market presence he and the company broker will need to work a lot harder to convince current and potential new institutional shareholders of the true value of the company and encourage them to buy more shares.

[howdy do da] 30/7/2008 00:40

I think the question is would sufficient shareholders (not just Richard Parris) agree to a proposed price, but if an offer was made why would someone suggest 70p which is a enormous premium to the current price?

We are admittedly suffering from market wide malaise but the real issue is that the average retail investor is all over commodity and resource stocks and hasn't been been excited about technology since 2000 and the market cap of circa £10m is too small for most institutions to even put IGP in its investment universe. The poor liquidity is a burden on the price too but it is also a strong deterent against a institution building a stake as they would be paying north of 50p before they even crossed the 3% notification threshold.

I do agree with you though that the next couple of months are key as the company is vulnerable and management and investors alike will be disappointed by the price decline. The helpful but cautious earnings guidance "enhanced earnings" and "possible £15m over next 5 years" isn't bullish enough for serious investors to make a move on IGP stock when cash is king and markets are in turmoil and the Director buying wasn't even reported in much of the press.

I could get an extra 20 posters on here, and if you recall I generated a bit of heat on this BB previously but along with the intellectuals came the village idiots and not unfairly I got a little stick because of it.

Sooner rather than later the price will fix itself as someone, somewhere will think sod this and pick up 250,000 or so and we will see 38-40 again, but the question is would such a rise be sustained or would the seller return and take us back down.

The only solution is for the company to be-friend an investor and for that investor to agree to build a stake over months and if necessary years and to have access to whatever seller is in the market to take their stock off them in one go at a fair price.

No-one benefits from a low share price except those who are looking for change. Anyone who wants the management and company to do well would prefer to see a better share price and give the management team time to turn the contracts and interest into sustainable long-term revenue. So if your looking for the seller, look for someone who wants change, not someone who primarily is looking to make money, as the latter would know that management stability and investor confidence is key and that change creates uncertainty.

Anyway, I hope to pick up another chunk of these this week and will tip it to a few contacts and let's pray they read the positive RNS's but don't look at the chart!!

[aphrodites] 29/7/2008 23:25

Howdy

This is not about how low the price has to go before a bid is made.

This is all about manoeuvring the price down and keeping it low for a long period so that when a bid does come which trebles the price all the shareholders will jump to accept it.

In my humble opinion everything started to go wrong last summer when Hargreave Hale was allowed to take a 6% stake at 33p costing it £700k. There was no commitment from this supposed technology investor to support the price in the market or even to hold the shares. We have since seen it to have been a seller and how much of this 6% does it still hold after only a year? So much for it being an INVESTOR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Someone has been dripping stock into the market. Without mentioning any names, that someone could easily be in bed with the predator working to keep the price low by always being there to sell small lines of stock every day. The stock could even be off-loaded to the predator through a MM at some pre-arranged price equation linked to the bid price.

Even after the recent announcement there has been no volume and no follow through buying of any size.The problem with IGP is that there are only a few ADVFN members who hold and follow the share. If we had another 50 ADVFN members all trying to buy 20k shares the price would be at 70p.

So my money is on an announcement being made in mid September about a bid approach.

But the big question is will Parris sell at 70p??????????

[accumulat0r] 29/7/2008 21:06

As at 5 May 2008, the following had notified the Company of disclosable interests in 3% or more of the Company's issued share capital.   Shareholder Number of ordinary shares % of issued share capital RA Parris 6,412,232 17.8 Pershing Keen Nominees Ltd. 4,176,668 11.6 Plastic Technologies Ltd. 3,147,436 8.7 Cogefin (Bermuda) Ltd. 1,582,541 4.4 Barclayshare Nominees Ltd. 1,467,925 4.1 React Investment Ltd. 1,344,683 3.7 AM Walker 1,248,077 3.5

[howdy do da] 29/7/2008 20:32

Aphro, that is my fear, but then how far would it have to fall before that party acted. Surely they take a risk that another unrelated party could launch some kind of dawn raid and pick up a significant or blocking stake themselves.

And as we saw with the recent Director buying, Richard Parris alone holds 17% though I am not sure if that is the single largest stake.

[aphrodites] 29/7/2008 17:38

igoe

I have not bothered to post on here with the recent turmoil in the markets.

Share prices have been marked down whether there is good or bad news and the institutions are sitting on their hands. Cash is king to them.

I agree with your comments about the safety of this share as an investment.

The directors have done everything right except I would have liked to have seen a wider participation of buying. However, how can you blame them when the MM's will only make a price in small amounts.

What concerns me is that someone is clearly continuously dripping small amounts of stock into the market in a deliberate attempt to surpress the share price. This to my mind means that someone is preparing for a bid and would like as low a base as possible to use it as a springboard.

I think the action will happen very quickly and a bid around 75p might even see this taken out.

What a great pity.

[jailbird] 29/7/2008 14:29

237,

In 10 years, i think biometrics may well be more predominant.:-)

[237gmoney] 29/7/2008 14:18

Smart card growth is here to stay.....this market has not even started for real yet.....we are only watching the beginning. 5-10 yrs down the line ID cards will be the norm, smart cards for office buildings, stadia, educational buildings, emergency worker, transport, everything....we have only just started... £8.5m is laughable....



Mediterranean smart cards company witnesses unprecedented growth
Posted on Monday, 28 July 2008

Press Release Content

MSCC commands more than one-third of the Egyptian issuing processing market with growth expected to continue at impressive rates.

Mediterranean Smart Cards Company (MSCC) has experienced unprecedented growth over the past two years and is already exceeding targets for 2008. With a presence in more than twenty Middle East, African and Gulf countries, MSCC has cornered the market on high-quality, premium smart card processing and operational support services, providing its expertise to more than 45 banks. In its home base of Egypt, MSCC commands already more than one- third of the issuing processing market and expectations are strong for even greater growth in the future.

From 2006-2007, the company has seen its revenue increase by 44% while its client bank base has jumped by 45%. Even more impressive, MSCC has seen a 31% increase in the number of cards hosted by its system and a surge of 61% in the number of issued transactions.

On the infrastructure side, MSCC's ATM processing has risen by 45%, while POS processing has increased 18%. In many of the markets where MSCC operates processing centers, there is no other service in country, as a result, if an international card is accepted it will go to the MSCC processing center in line with international best practices for chip and pin card acceptance.

The first quarter of 2008 has also shown positive results, with the company's financial performance reflecting management's commitment to achieve and exceed 2008 targets. In fact, in Q108 MSCC experienced an astounding 110% increase in accumulated cards issued, while issuer and acquirer transactions exceeded targets by 137% and 143% respectively.

"We've been working diligently to set aggressive targets to increase revenue and contain the growth of costs while ensuring the quality of service MSCC is known for," said Mrs. Hoda Shoukry, MSCC Managing Director. "Supporting our contracted clients remains a priority for us, and the market has proven that there is vast opportunity for expansion. MSCC is taking bold steps to capitalize on the needs of both banks and individuals who are looking for a partner in growth and development. Whether providing smart card processing or operational support, MSCC has the expertise and innovation to propel our clients to the forefront of their business."

During the first quarter of 2008 the company also launched its fraud analyzer module, a new service matching market and clients' needs. Within this framework, MSCC signed the first contract with Arab African International Bank (AAIB), positioning MSCC as the first processor to provide 24-hour online fraud monitoring to serve both banks and clients.

MSCC's fraud monitoring service sends an instant alert if it is skeptical of any transaction, and makes the necessary calls instantly to authenticate the measures of the service. This cutting edge service provided by MSCC has been received with great success, especially given increasing global awareness of card misuse and potential fraudulent activity.

In addition, MSCC implemented the issuer Verified by Visa services, strengthening MSCC's position with existing and potential client banks.

Moreover, MSCC successfully interfaced with the Egyptian credit bureau "I Score" to provide its client banks with Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) and I Score required reports.

[howdy do da] 29/7/2008 13:23

Well I am putting some more cash together and hope to pick up another 50000 by the end of week.

Only people making money today are the MM's.

[237gmoney] 29/7/2008 13:16

what this share needs is a big buyer to start coming in and picking up stock.....Hargreve Hale didnt want the stock they bought and wanted a quick profit....the company needs a long term investor and Mr Parris needs to sort that area out - otherwise a bigger fish will take advantage of this ridiculas price and take this out for small fry.

MM's are taking us all for a ride at the moment....sells not welcome so they overstate the drops at the moment which is a poor show...

[igoe104] 29/7/2008 13:15

Just the mm,s playing their usual games, they want you to have the shares when they want you too.

Because their was a recent annoucement by the comany, they probably think they may be still buyers around, give it another week and you will be able to pick up 50,000 shares.

Feel sorry for the comany, even if they annouced 100 contract wins, this would go up to 40p then it would still go back to square one, just know pleasing some folks.

[howdy do da] 29/7/2008 13:05

I just don't understand, you can only buy 10000 online. Think a relatively large buy is going to come thru.

Usually after such sells you can always pick up at least 25000. Confused!!!

[igoe104] 29/7/2008 13:03

Just know pleasing some folks, the company gives holders what they want a positive up-date, and a ceo share purchase, and still the price goes backwards.

They must be some desperate folks out their that need money, to sell at this level.

[howdy do da] 29/7/2008 12:56

Yes, the future's bright for those with patience.

[wjccghcc] 29/7/2008 12:50

Looks like a PI dribbling out sales in 5k lots - if they wanted to sell, then pretty stupid not selling into the rise last week. Fear and greed I suspect.

Shame they don't have the patience to wait until next year when IGP's business success should start showing up in the numbers. Contract wins are running at 4x the rate of 2 years ago, the CEO has bought shares for the first time in 5 years and we've just had a positive trading statement.

Oh, and BAE have just bought Detica as they look to increase their homeland security exposure. I'm sure IGP will be on their shopping list at some point.

[howdy do da] 29/7/2008 12:33

If we hit a new low I will top up but am watching in the meantime. Really don't understand why someone is selling so soon after bullish RNS's but that's life I guess.