Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[howdy do da] 24/7/2008 15:08

Must be mostly delays in reported buys. No way we would retain a 12% jump if they were prodominately sells.

[igoe104] 24/7/2008 14:57

Lots more worldwide projects up for grabs.

[howdy do da] 24/7/2008 14:14

Some relatively healthy trades coming through but it's difficult to tell if a couple are buys or sells.

We will know by end of day. If we see more progress, they are buys, if they are delayed buys from earlier, we should stay where we are and if they are sells (the 20,000 in particular) we will fall back.

[howdy do da] 24/7/2008 12:59

nice reply, but Kent_paul is genetically programmed to be difficult and argumentative regarding all stocks except Bangladeshi coal mines awaiting permits.

[wjccghcc] 24/7/2008 12:52

k-p is right historically but not now. MyID (used to be called edifice) development was started over 10 years ago. At that time, noone was interested and there was little demand. Consequently they had little pricing power and the partners had the upper hand. On the plus side, that meant they had no competitors (even actividentity was a licensee in the early days) and it will be very hard for new entrants to catch up now given the long lead times and huge testing requirements for any secure CMS/IDMS.

Now however, MyID is increasingly well known and respected as probably the most advanced, flexible, secure and reliable CMS/IDMS in the space. With the system integrator toolkit and expansion into the Oracle secure network, MyID is gaining recognition in its own right rather than just as an RSA/Verisign/Thales/Safesign solution. That will be reflected in future projects.

[kent_paul] 24/7/2008 12:30

its called no pricing power fft

[fft] 24/7/2008 12:28

Fair comments,

I suppose that I expected progress a bit quicker than has turned out. I remember a few years ago thinking that this was definitely going to be the next big thing, but the licenses appeared to have nearly been given away, and the revenue has just never taken off how i thought it would. And that is the problem. Even if turnover doubled, it is still not where i think it should be....

[igoe104] 24/7/2008 12:28

A MyID system has been installed to power a First Responder (FRAC) service in a
large US state.
· A managed service incorporating MyID has been deployed by an Intercede partner to
support a large US Military Base.
Intercede*s first Australian MyID customer.
An additional UK Government contract.

I expect alot more contracts in the next 12 months, now they are involved in our first state (frac) project, you would expect us to be involved in alot more u.s states, maybe 51 more. also good news to see us get a foot-hold in the australian market as well.

[howdy do da] 24/7/2008 12:26

That's the plan.

[igoe104] 24/7/2008 12:15

This company share price decline is purely an AIM investment issue, rather than intercede one.
igp has a positive outlook, as i expect this company to get stronger and stronger, its involved in such a growth area, it can,t real fail with it product.
its just a matter of time before, all holders make a mint out of this company.

[boadicea] 24/7/2008 10:59

fft - The statement is more or less what you should expect - much preferable to a gung-ho banner-waving trumpet blast that is riding for a fall. Any company of this size and at this stage of development is relatively high-risk and caution rather than ramping is sensible.

Governments change, or sometimes just change their mind, as do other large organisations, so projects can get cancelled. However, the large twic project is at implementation stage and the multiplicity of other and continuing contract wins would mitigate the effects of any individual cancellations, some of which will doubtless occur.

Having taken these risks into account, the general increase of momentum in the security area and the undoubted quality of the IGP offerings and partnerships, I can only come to the conclusion that the risk/reward ratio more than justifies investing a healthy slice of risk capital in this company. I am also aware that project gains can require capital investment which may take time to mature, so cash calls can become necessary - although nothing is imminent here afaics.

This is just my personal view, of course - dyor.

PS: A contract cancellation is usually not all loss. It can oddly lead to earlier cash flow (i.e. compensation) than waiting for fruition.

[howdy do da] 24/7/2008 10:12

The statement was positive and cautious. That's fine for me.

It's certainly not bad news is it? We will see another 5% plus progress by end of week and hopefully the bottom of the price cycle is in the past.

[wjccghcc] 24/7/2008 10:12

fft, there is only one part to the group.

They're always cautious, mainly because at their current stage of development, revenues are still dependent on progress of the implementation of some of their larger contracts and that's something they have no control over and little visibility of. This will reduce over time as their maintenance revenues/# of project wins rise but we're not there yet. For that reason quarterly revenue updates aren't that useful/meaningful, though the contract news is very welcome.

The contract news is actually very good - 10 agencies shows that MyID is the preferred choice for agencies outside the GSA group deal (I think the next closet CMS is used by 2 or 3 agencies) and this is the first US military deal they've won when up to now Actividentity has cornered that market. It's also nice to see FRAC getting underway (that's a 50 million card market) and Australia shows the geographic expansion is underway.

I'm still going to be cautious and go for 1.4-1.5mm H1 revenues before any licensing deals with a step change in H2 but I'm happy to be wrong.

The main thing to take away is that only 2 years ago, we'd be lucky to get 6 contact wins per year - now it's 6 per quarter. The revenues will take 12 months to come through but their financial performance is only going one way.

A takeover would be the best way for them to maximise the MyID potential but I'm sure Parris has a takeout target which is a multiple of today's share price and no buyer will justify paying that at this stage. However, in 18 months time the numbers will look a lot better and it might be a different story...

[kent_paul] 24/7/2008 09:49

well the numbers need to materialise sooners rather than later...

[howdy do da] 24/7/2008 09:36

Yes good news indeed. As I indicated and hoped the poor share price was a function of the firms low profile and poor markets. The RNS confirms all is well and the relationships and contracts are progressing well.

I would be astonished if we didn't see further price recovery from here.

Kent-paul, the management are cautious and aim to under promise and over deliver so the absence of numbers is fine with me. It remains a solid medium to long term buy with the added potential of a quick rally due to the stocks poor liquidity.

I remain a committed holder and will accumulate more if and when I can.

[kent_paul] 24/7/2008 09:13

there are no dollar or earnings numbers?

[237gmoney] 24/7/2008 08:55

Thank you Mr Parris. If you do read this board then you will see the positive change in tone after your update. Its not much to ask and were not asking for it every month, just once every 3 months....on top of the regular announcements. Its the only way this company will progress in the stockmarket and you will get a better price for your stake when you decide the times right to cash in.

Nice to see the new contracts....and in Austraila also....a new market where there is bags of potential. Possibly IGP could open an office on that side of the world???

[wjccghcc] 24/7/2008 08:13

Yes. Thank you management for increasing the investor communication.

Some nice contract wins.

[billbyrne] 24/7/2008 08:02

It would be nice to see a quarterly update moving forward.

Its all looking good.

RNS Number : 7526Z
Intercede Group PLC
24 July 2008


24 JULY 2008

INTERCEDE GROUP PLC
("Intercede" or "the Company")

Trading Update

Intercede, a leading producer of Identity and Credential Management Systems (IDCMS)
software, today announces that in the first three
months of the current financial year it has made strong commercial progress compared to the
previous year.

Software deliveries to previously announced major customers in the UK, Europe and the US
have been completed on time and ongoing
development work is proceeding according to contractual schedules. The trading performance for
the quarter ending 30 June 2008 reflects this
continued progress resulting in increased revenues and reduced losses year on year.

Further progress has also been made with the selection of Intercede's MyID technology for
the following projects:

· Two additional US Federal Agencies (bringing the total number served by Intercede*s
technology to 10) will be using MyID to issue
secure credentials.
· A MyID system has been installed to power a First Responder (FRAC) service in a
large US state.
· A managed service incorporating MyID has been deployed by an Intercede partner to
support a large US Military Base.
· Intercede*s first Australian MyID customer.
· An additional UK Government contract.


Richard Parris, Chairman and Chief Executive of Intercede, commented:

"The level of activity in all aspects and regions of our business is greater than it has
ever been and we are benefiting from
participating in one of the few technology markets that is rapidly growing in spite of the
general economic downturn. The overall prospects
for the Group remain positive and I expect Intercede to deliver enhanced financial performance
in the current financial year and beyond".

[wjccghcc] 23/7/2008 19:06

jailbird, it's all good (and about time) but may take a while to be reflected in the financials (apart from any upfront license fees).

Paradoxically (I think spooky said this), they've achieved a world-leading position by underpricing the product. At this stage it's very hard for a partner to move away from them (long lead times in development and testing and customer demand won't wait), which combined with MyID beginning to achieve recognition in its own right, should bode well for the future.

[237gmoney] 23/7/2008 15:01

Well said Kmac - agree re the UKID card....plenty more fish in the sea as they say.....Just we all want jam today not tomorrow hence why they share price has taken a beating over the last year....The business will grow and grow but as WJ said, a buyer will come in for this company once it starts making profits as it would fit nicely into many security firms who want to diversify their product range...

[kmacgre] 23/7/2008 14:22

I think what has held the IGP shareprice in check is the amount of time it has taken from signing up the industry leaders as OEM's to any real results.
There have been positive statements about this and that, but in reality the company has remained quite tiny although growing. I do hold a handful of shares and will buy more once a clear and strong earnings growth, set against a receding economy becomes clearer.
I can see this minnow is funded by VC capital who will want a minimum 10 X return, but I don't like the lack of share liquidity.
IMHO, it should do well once folk stop looking to the national ID cards as the simple answer to success. Again imho, it will grow into real success on the back of many smaller sales which add up to solid quality earnings. In this respect, it is similar to many other well run businesses.

[jailbird] 23/7/2008 11:15

WJ,


what's your view on the re-negiotion of fees for licences and contracts.

Surely this is gonna bring more revenues sooner rather than later.

IGP realise that their patented product is integral part of their partners products which i needed for CMS/IDMS.

I am hoping for an announcement on this matter soon.