Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[pyman] 23/7/2008 10:07

Ha Ha I m baa 'ing all the way to the counter and buying some more IGP. Herds standing still now. Maybe they ll follow?!

[straykeely] 23/7/2008 09:32

Pyman. do you mean as in - 'If your happy and you know it, Think again' ?

[pyman] 22/7/2008 21:49

Brits like sheep? baaa humbug!most investors are sheep. No bad thing ,if you KNOW you are a sheep and sometimes its a good idea to change herds. Then again ,if you know you are a sheep- are you a sheep?

[wjccghcc] 22/7/2008 14:48

237gm, that's not how the industry works - the lead times are much longer. Yes, they released MyID 8 in June but it is a step up in functionality being a one-stop shop for CMS and IDMS. They'll need to integrate it into the partner offerings, train the partners, introduce the system integrators to the new toolset and that's even before it's recommended to a client. You're unlikely to see actual deployments of it until next year at the earliest (apart from the beta tested US bank rollout). On the plus side, the long lead times are a big barrier to any new entries in the market - in security you don't take a risk on a new undeployed product whereas MyID is well-known and respected for being very secure, flexible and reliable.

Of course, if there's an upfront license payment from RSA or another partner, then H1 could be higher, but on an underlying basis 1.4-1.5mm will show 15-20% half on half growth which, given the rollout timings of their contracts, would be pretty good. As I said, the following 12 months from September this year are where the financials should (finally) start showing the progress made.

All IMHO of course.

[howdy do da] 22/7/2008 13:11

That 10k plus was a buy. At least a few retail investors are starting to join the party.

[igoe104] 22/7/2008 13:06

I find it amazing how folks are willing to sell for 23p, when they could off got 45p a couple of months ago, its just pure panic selling.

British people are like sheep, when the yanks say jump the brits say how high.

[jailbird] 22/7/2008 12:58

i think the big holders, may have something to say about that.

Also one one bid comes, then another bidder turn up.

I do not think this will go cheap as u guys fear..but that's just my opinion.

[howdy do da] 22/7/2008 12:51

237, that is my fear too. 60p is the minimum that I would be happy with and whilst this side of 40p, we are vulnerable to being sold on the cheap.

[237gmoney] 22/7/2008 12:46

WJ, what about possible new revenue from the MyID 8.0? Since the company showed it to the market on 4th June nothing has been mentioned....I know times are hard for investment in the private sector on new CDMS etc but there is bound to a few interested in it???

1.4-1.5 would be disappointing imo and I hope any RSA renewal or a potential new Thales contract would push this towards the 2m bracket....With Thales on the hunt for cheap companies....Thales could easily take out IGP at current levels and all I hope is that we get a fair price for our share....

[howdy do da] 22/7/2008 11:30

I hope so. I feel there is nothing fundamentally wrong and it's just bad markets and the firm suffering from a low profile.

I am quietly confident the down-trend will be broken soon but am disappointed that the firm looks vulnerable to chartists and people who don't understand the long term potential.

[wjccghcc] 22/7/2008 11:18

Howdy, given the timing of the rollouts (there are always delays) and the distorting effect of the Thales license, I'm not holding my breath for more than 1.4-1.5mm underlying revenues. H2 is when the main improvement should be seen IMHO.

However, there could be some nice contract news.

[howdy do da] 22/7/2008 11:12

WJ, if we see £1.5m in H1 and a move into the black then that is good, but not great. Let's hope for better.

[felix99] 22/7/2008 10:58

50k at 24 now on offer

[wjccghcc] 22/7/2008 10:50

They won't be around in 5 years because they'll have been bought in 2 years.

Regarding the H1 financials, you'll need to strip out the effect of the Thales 500k license which will have distorted last year's figures. If you look at the underlying revenues you get

H107 1,046
H207 1,259

So ignoring any new license income (e.g. RSA renewal) and given the TWIC delays, I'd be pleased to see underlying revenues in the 1.4 - 1.5mm range. I'd expect H2 to be significantly better with the Wells Fargo, Lockheed, NHS and TWIC rollouts making an increased contribution.

[237gmoney] 22/7/2008 10:35

Times are hard WJ and there are desperate people out there at the moment....I would like to think they are selling to invest elsewhere but where would you want to put it in this bear market!?!?!?!

In the next trading update we need to hear what the financials are doing....for example putting a value on some of these 10 contracts for IGP in the short term - £15m over 5 years is not good enough....at the current rate the share price is going, IGP wont be around in 6 months never mind 5 years!

[wjccghcc] 22/7/2008 10:24

1.5mm TWIC cards - that means 500k cards for which IGP get all the license fees/maintenance revenue. Implies $1-2mm extra revenues next year.

Yet still people dribble out stock at this depressed price. Honestly, why would they buy it in the first place when it was clear the financials lag the business progress by 1-2 years?

[kent_paul] 22/7/2008 10:14

you have to be able to kick the tyres on tech stocks and i am not able to do it on this and i am skeptical on how defensible their product will be, which isnt to say the current market cap is expensive but gcm's potential which i regard as low risk dwarf's IGPs.

[garth] 22/7/2008 09:34

From Smartcard Alliance:

"Government agencies have made great strides in issuing identity credentials that comply with new security standards mandated by the executive order HSPD-12, but a number of key challenges and deadlines loom over these agencies. At Smart Cards in Government, you'll get the year's most comprehensive update on federal efforts to implement new identity security standards. The conference coincides with key program deadlines. These recent news items reflect the challenges these agencies face:



HSPD-12: In April, the Office of Management and Budget released a report indicating that 97 percent of employees and contractors have yet to receive their new identification badges. The OMB had set a deadline of Oct. 27, 2008 to replace the flash badges for all employees and contractors.



DoD Common Access Cards: In May, a $582 million prime contract was awarded to help the Defense Manpower Data Center in its efforts to equip Defense Department installations worldwide with wireless technology that recognizes identification cards that 4 million military personnel and government contractors use.



TWIC Cards: In January, the U.S. Coast Guard increased its estimate of the number of workers that could require the TWIC Card. Up to 1.5 million workers could need Transportation Worker Identification Credential cards--twice the number that some had originally estimated.



REAL ID: In April, Stewart Baker, Homeland Security's policy chief, told the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Government Management Subcommittee the cost of REAL ID could be as low as $500 million. But an analysis done by the National Governors Association, the National Conference of State Legislatures and the American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators estimated states would need to spend about $11 billion over five years. Baker said the department will ask the states for updated cost estimates.
"

[howdy do da] 21/7/2008 19:35

You could only buy 2 x 1000? That's astonishing.

With the price action you should have been able to get much more. I really don't understand. Last time I checked I could get 50,000 no worries.

Well, without introducing some kind of hex on this, we have got to see some action shortly? This is too cheap.

terry, you have few quid in GCM profits, admittedly eroding fast, put a few pounds in here will you. You know it makes sense at this price.

[igoe104] 21/7/2008 19:31

It doesn,t mean they will involve igp anyway even if they are a partner, but if they involve a data-base (which these german insurance cards do)they might want to use igp software.

ps if we are involve it won,t be a few pence, more like couple of pound.

[boadicea] 21/7/2008 18:40

jhigylen - The small on-line quantity is encouraging. I got 7k earlier but at 24p and assumed I could have got many more. The low price allowed on a small quantity looks like a deliberate ploy to show a misleading two sells. Sprats and mackerels come to mind. Perhaps someone wants to get in cheap - such as the other side of 20p!
The prelude to a bounce, maybe?

[boadicea] 21/7/2008 18:31

igoe - What is the nature of the partnership? Are they licensees of the software? At just a few pence each licence fee, 10m would amount to a useful sum.

k_p - I suppose from a shorters viewpoint it's the wrong side of 20p already.

[kent_paul] 21/7/2008 17:35

this is looking at the wrong side of 20p by weekend if you ask me.